Keaton Winn — OGILVIE

Keaton Winn P San Francisco Giants

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 74 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.54

FIP4.32

K%19.8%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP75

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB+1.7 (47%)

SI (22%)

SL (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	20	127	526	99	26	9	77%	4.9	13.9%	5.8%	8.1%	2.1%	3.32	3.79	—
2019	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	26	20	127	526	99	26	9	77%	4.9	18.8%	4.9%	13.9%	1.7%	3.32	3.08	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	108	461	125	32	9	93%	4.0	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	2.4%	4.08	3.68	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	25	108	461	125	32	9	93%	4.0	27.1%	6.9%	20.2%	2.0%	4.08	2.76	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	100	435	101	34	13	73%	3.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.01	+1.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	100	435	101	34	13	73%	3.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.01	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	100	435	101	34	13	73%	3.9	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.75	3.79	+1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.1%	6.86	4.71	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.1%	6.86	4.71	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	4.0%	6.86	4.59	+0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	16.2%	6.4%	9.8%	4.2%	6.99	4.82	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	16.2%	6.4%	9.8%	4.2%	6.99	4.82	-0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	20.3%	6.4%	14.0%	2.9%	6.99	3.85	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			72	17	151	628	125	46	19	24%	2.1	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	5.20	4.00	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	47	2	46	187	36	18	3	4%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.8%	3.13	3.68	+0.5
YTD	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	47	2	46	187	36	18	3	4%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.8%	3.13	3.68	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	ROK RAW	SF	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	28	A RAW	SF	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	SF	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	SF	44	0	43	176	33	16	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.7%	3.35	3.60	+0.5
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	SF	44	0	43	176	33	16	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.7%	3.35	3.60	+0.5
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.54	4.32	—
ROS	28	MLB CTX	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.54	4.32	—
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	46	187	36	18	3	—	—	19.3%	9.6%	9.6%	1.6%	3.13	3.68	+0.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	43	182	36	18	3	—	—	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	1.7%	3.35	3.59	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	68	0	71	301	58	26	10	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.66	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	283	53	25	10	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.87	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	65	0	68	287	56	24	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.66	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SF	61	0	64	270	51	24	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.87	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	17	282	1184	231	94	37	9%	1.4	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.99	4.18	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		140	12	200	839	164	67	26	9%	1.4	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.99	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		164	82	478	2034	372	148	57	50%	2.9	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	2.8%	4.50	4.00	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	34	200	851	156	62	24	50%	2.9	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	2.8%	4.50	4.00	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keaton Winn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.7%	7.9%	3.5%	—	4.76	19.1%	10.4%	138	+0.11	—	—	—
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	68
Chris Bassitt R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	28	SW	3.83	17.5%	9.8%	1.7%	.313	3.80	21.7%	14.1%	336	-0.03	3.02	1,554	67
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	66
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	66
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.77	20.5%	12.7%	68	-1.02	3.52	619	66
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	66
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	65
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	65
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	65
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	64
Zach McAllister R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	23.2%	9.0%	2.6%	.309	4.18	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.48	2.82	363	64
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	64
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	63
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	63
Jay Flaa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.20	3.59	273	63
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	62
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	62
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	19.6%	8.4%	1.29	4.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38