Keaton Winn
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112102vR 93
ERA4.26
FIP4.06
K%21.0%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p740.289
FB+1.7 (48%)
SI (24%)
SL (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 26 | 20 | 127 | 526 | 99 | 26 | 9 | 77% | 4.9 | 13.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.71 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 26 | 20 | 127 | 526 | 99 | 26 | 9 | 77% | 4.9 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 3.32 | 3.08 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 108 | 461 | 125 | 32 | 9 | 93% | 4.0 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.68 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 108 | 461 | 125 | 32 | 9 | 93% | 4.0 | 27.1% | 6.9% | 20.2% | 2.0% | 4.08 | 2.76 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 100 | 435 | 101 | 34 | 13 | 73% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.02 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 100 | 435 | 101 | 34 | 13 | 73% | 3.9 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 3.79 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 22 | 10 | 92% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 4.1% | 6.86 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 22 | 10 | 92% | 4.5 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 6.86 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 4 | 37 | 172 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 16% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 6.99 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 4 | 37 | 172 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 16% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 6.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 6.99 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 2 | 35 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 6% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 2.83 | 3.13 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 78 | 317 | 67 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.64 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 75 | 316 | 67 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 21.2% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 3.66 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 62 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 56 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 60 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 50 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 282 | 17 | 374 | 1564 | 315 | 123 | 52 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.21 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 9 | 200 | 838 | 169 | 66 | 28 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 151 | 82 | 467 | 1983 | 371 | 147 | 55 | 54% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 3.98 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 159 | 63 | 23 | 54% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keaton Winn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.82 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 201 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 68 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 68 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 67 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 66 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 65 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 64 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 64 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 63 |
| Cody Poteet R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .244 | 3.76 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 68 | -1.04 | 3.49 | 619 | 63 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 63 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 63 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 61 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 59 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.23 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 426 | 59 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2024 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 59 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 59 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 59 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 1.36 | 4.79 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |