Keaton Winn
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.2
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.24
FIP4.66
xFIP2.22
SIERA1.80
K%20.8%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.4%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5560
FB+1.7 (45%)
SI (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 26 | 20 | 127 | 526 | 99 | 26 | 9 | 13.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 3.32 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 27 | 25 | 108 | 461 | 125 | 32 | 9 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.67 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 26 | 19 | 100 | 435 | 101 | 34 | 13 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 3.98 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 13 | 12 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 22 | 10 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 6.86 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 25 | 4 | 37 | 172 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 6.99 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 52 | 214 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 51 | 18 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SF | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.16 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 80 | 440 | 1878 | 353 | 139 | 52 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 3.98 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 36 | 200 | 853 | 160 | 63 | 24 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keaton Winn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% | — | 4.46 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 146 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.53 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.75 | 2.83 | 363 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 71 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 71 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 71 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 71 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 70 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 70 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 70 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 70 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 70 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 70 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.16 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.85 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.31 | 2.36 | 309 | 69 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 69 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 69 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 69 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 69 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.