Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022
20
MIXMLE
2 levels
5
2
9
41
12
4
0
40%
1.7
29.3%
9.8%
19.5%
0.0%
8.31
1.86
—
2022
20
MIXRAW
2 levels
5
2
9
41
12
4
0
40%
1.7
29.3%
9.8%
19.5%
0.0%
8.31
1.72
—
2023
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
19
17
87
366
88
22
5
89%
4.6
18.2%
7.0%
11.2%
1.7%
3.95
3.38
—
2023
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
19
17
87
366
88
22
5
89%
4.6
24.0%
6.0%
18.0%
1.4%
3.95
2.58
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
15
15
60
267
79
43
1
100%
4.0
21.6%
20.1%
1.6%
0.6%
3.28
4.17
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
15
15
60
267
79
43
1
100%
4.0
21.6%
20.1%
1.6%
0.6%
3.28
4.17
—
2025
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
15
15
60
267
79
43
1
100%
4.0
29.6%
16.1%
13.5%
0.4%
3.28
2.83
—
2026
24
MIXMLE
3 levels
27
26
130
558
162
60
14
96%
4.8
23.4%
11.2%
12.2%
3.0%
4.23
4.17
—
2026
24
MIXMLE
3 levels
27
26
130
558
162
60
14
96%
4.8
23.4%
11.2%
12.2%
3.0%
4.23
4.17
—
2026
24
MIXRAW
3 levels
27
26
130
558
162
60
14
96%
4.8
29.0%
10.8%
18.3%
2.5%
4.23
3.39
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
25
MLB
ATL
12
12
73
308
69
42
9
100%
6.1
22.5%
13.7%
8.7%
2.8%
4.89
4.89
+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
26
MLBMLE
ATL
19
19
117
493
112
65
14
100%
6.1
22.6%
13.1%
9.5%
2.9%
4.81
4.80
+0.1
2029
27
MLBMLE
ATL
19
19
115
485
109
62
14
100%
6.0
22.6%
12.8%
9.8%
2.9%
4.78
4.80
+0.1
2030
28
MLBMLE
ATL
19
19
112
471
106
60
14
100%
5.9
22.4%
12.7%
9.8%
3.0%
4.81
4.85
+0.1
2031
29
MLBMLE
ATL
18
18
106
450
100
57
14
100%
5.9
22.2%
12.8%
9.4%
3.2%
4.90
4.97
-0.1
2032
30
MLBMLE
ATL
17
17
100
423
92
55
14
100%
5.9
21.8%
13.1%
8.8%
3.4%
5.05
5.15
-0.3
2028
26
MLBCTX
ATL
8
8
50
211
48
28
6
100%
6.2
22.6%
13.1%
9.5%
2.9%
4.81
4.80
+0.1
2029
27
MLBCTX
ATL
12
12
72
304
69
39
9
100%
6.0
22.6%
12.8%
9.8%
2.9%
4.78
4.80
+0.1
2030
28
MLBCTX
ATL
14
14
84
355
80
45
11
100%
6.0
22.4%
12.7%
9.8%
3.0%
4.81
4.85
+0.0
2031
29
MLBCTX
ATL
14
14
87
367
81
47
12
100%
6.2
22.2%
12.8%
9.4%
3.2%
4.90
4.97
-0.1
2032
30
MLBCTX
ATL
14
14
86
363
79
47
12
100%
6.1
21.8%
13.1%
8.8%
3.4%
5.05
5.15
-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
63
63
379
1599
356
206
50
100%
6.0
22.3%
12.9%
9.4%
3.1%
4.88
4.55
+1.5
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
33
33
200
844
188
109
26
100%
6.0
22.3%
12.9%
9.4%
3.1%
4.88
4.55
+0.8
Career
—
MLE
66
60
285
1232
267
145
25
91%
4.3
21.6%
11.8%
9.8%
2.0%
4.07
3.86
-0.0
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
46
42
200
864
187
102
17
91%
4.3
21.6%
11.8%
9.8%
2.0%
4.07
3.86
-0.0
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.