Jonathon Long — OGILVIE

Jonathon Long1B Iowa Cubs

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA BB +5%HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .329 / .395

PA320

HR10

K%24

BB%9

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40↗49

PWR

50↗52

SPD

40→40

FLD

32↗43

EYE

54↘51

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.5M
Totals		$8M		$36M	+$29M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	92	81	16	2	0	5	7	25	4	0	0	.198	.293	.407	.701	.210	.216	27	8	.320	103	+0	+0	+0	-2	+3	0.1
2024	22	A+	3 teams	576	503	122	20	0	20	57	154	8	3	0	.243	.329	.402	.731	.159	.303	27	10	.318	102	+1	+1	+0	-10	+16	0.8
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	607	540	150	19	3	15	54	141	9	2	0	.278	.353	.407	.761	.130	.348	23	9	.335	115	+10	+0	+0	-11	+17	1.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	101	90	21	2	1	2	10	26	0	0	0	.233	.310	.344	.654	.111	.306	26	10	.283	75	-3	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	219	194	48	7	1	6	21	53	2	1	0	.247	.327	.387	.714	.139	.308	24	10	.321	104	+1	+0	-1	-4	+6	0.3
TOT	24	MLB	CHC	320	284	69	9	2	8	31	79	2	1	0	.243	.322	.373	.695	.130	.308	25	10	.309	95	-2	+0	-1	-6	+9	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB 25%	CHC	370	325	83	12	2	11	38	71	4	3	0	.255	.341	.406	.747	.151	.294	19	10	.335	114	+6	+1	-1	-7	+10	0.9
2028	26	MLB 43%	CHC	407	358	93	14	2	13	42	79	4	3	0	.260	.344	.419	.763	.159	.295	19	10	.337	116	+7	+1	-1	-7	+12	1.1
2029	27	MLB 58%	CHC	420	369	94	14	2	13	44	83	4	4	0	.255	.341	.409	.750	.154	.295	20	10	.336	115	+7	+1	-1	-8	+12	1.1
2030	28	MLB 68%	CHC	425	374	96	15	2	13	44	85	4	3	0	.257	.341	.412	.753	.155	.295	20	10	.335	114	+7	+1	-2	-8	+12	1.0
2031	29	MLB 77%	CHC	420	369	93	14	2	13	44	85	4	3	0	.252	.338	.407	.745	.154	.294	20	10	.332	113	+6	+1	-3	-8	+12	0.8
2032	30	MLB 84%	CHC	414	364	91	14	2	12	43	85	4	3	0	.250	.336	.398	.734	.148	.292	21	10	.329	110	+5	+1	-4	-7	+12	0.6
2033	31	MLB 91%	CHC	401	352	87	13	2	11	42	84	4	2	0	.247	.334	.389	.723	.142	.291	21	10	.326	107	+3	+0	-4	-7	+11	0.4
2034	32	MLB	CHC	384	337	83	12	2	11	40	83	4	1	0	.246	.333	.392	.725	.145	.290	22	10	.321	104	+2	+0	-5	-7	+11	0.1
2035	33	MLB	CHC	355	312	74	11	1	9	37	79	3	1	0	.237	.324	.365	.689	.128	.288	22	10	.315	100	-0	+0	-5	-6	+10	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	CHC	311	273	64	9	1	8	32	72	3	1	0	.234	.321	.363	.684	.128	.287	23	10	.309	95	-2	+0	-6	-6	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5401	4751	1194	176	22	160	545	1179	61	30	0	.251	.336	.399	.735	.147	.300	22	10	.327	109	+53	+6	-34	-96	+153	8.4
/ 162G	—			650	572	144	21	3	19	66	142	7	4	0	.252	.336	.399	.735	.147	.301	22	10	.327	109	+6	+1	-4	-12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	92	77	20	3	0	6	11	18	4	0	.260	.380	.532	.913	.273	.264	20	12	.401	165	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	200	159	54	9	0	7	35	33	2	0	.340	.464	.528	.993	.189	.382	16	18	.432	189	+20	+0	—	—	+6	2.6
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	289	247	61	12	0	10	34	68	5	2	.247	.350	.417	.767	.170	.297	24	12	.342	120	+7	+0	—	—	+8	1.5
2024	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	87	74	25	4	1	6	11	20	1	1	.338	.430	.662	1.092	.324	.388	23	13	.463	213	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	607	514	157	23	3	20	79	116	9	2	.305	.406	.479	.885	.173	.359	19	13	.392	158	+40	+0	—	—	+17	5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathon Long (OGILVIE)	24	40→49	50→52	40	51	.250/.329/.395	.145	.309	10	2	24%	9%	108	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andrew Vaughn 2022 · MLB	24	46→55	49→55	42→30	50	.232/.306/.379	.147	.274	16	3	22%	8%	94	+1.3	.256/.314/.417	.161	.296	19	2	20%	7%	106	+2.2	.256/.311/.416	.160	.296	19	1	20%	6%	104	+2.0
●Daniel Vogelbach 2017 · AAA	24	49→50	50→60	42→40	52	.244/.322/.401	.157	.298	18	3	24%	10%	106	+2.2	.242/.330/.410	.168	.291	21	3	23%	11%	111	+2.5	.229/.332/.413	.184	.266	25	1	24%	13%	110	+2.2
✕Kyle Blanks 2011 · MLB	24	48→57	52→55	45	47	.242/.323/.409	.167	.312	20	5	28%	9%	109	+2.4	.232/.299/.406	.174	.308	19	6	30%	7%	98	+1.6	.238/.308/.413	.175	.307	21	3	28%	7%	101	+1.1
●Mike Carp 2010 · MLB	24	48→55	47→55	41→40	49	.241/.314/.378	.137	.293	15	2	23%	8%	97	+1.5	.235/.299/.401	.166	.283	21	4	24%	7%	96	+1.5	.258/.322/.439	.180	.318	22	4	25%	8%	112	+1.7
●Jordan Luplow 2018 · MLB	24	45→47	50→65	45→50	47	.229/.295/.388	.159	.271	17	6	23%	8%	92	+1.2	.242/.316/.418	.176	.288	19	8	22%	9%	108	+2.3	.236/.326/.439	.203	.276	23	8	23%	11%	114	+1.5
●Rhys Hoskins 2017 · AA	24	46→52	53→60	45	45	.235/.301/.406	.171	.295	21	6	27%	7%	98	+1.6	.232/.328/.446	.214	.266	27	5	24%	11%	121	+3.2	.226/.343/.451	.226	.252	28	4	22%	14%	122	+3.7
●Jesus Guzman 2008 · AA	24	48→58	49→55	43→50	45	.241/.293/.390	.149	.284	16	5	22%	6%	91	+1.1	.272/.316/.426	.154	.321	17	5	20%	6%	109	+2.4	.284/.336/.432	.148	.336	14	7	19%	6%	114	+2.4
✕Jake Holton 2023 · AA	25	47→51	47→50	42→40	49	.231/.323/.373	.141	.302	14	5	27%	9%	99	+1.7	.232/.314/.376	.144	.293	16	4	25%	9%	97	+1.5	.228/.306/.378	.150	.288	18	4	26%	8%	90	+0.8
✕Justin Foscue 2023 · AA	24	45→46	55	40→50	45	.235/.301/.423	.188	.275	23	5	24%	7%	103	+1.9	.224/.307/.384	.160	.254	18	9	19%	9%	96	+1.5	.213/.303/.373	.160	.234	18	9	18%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Rich Poythress 2012 · AA	24	47→48	49→50	41→40	44	.239/.293/.386	.146	.288	17	4	23%	6%	89	+1.0	.239/.299/.377	.138	.277	15	5	19%	7%	90	+1.0	.234/.298/.368	.134	.264	16	4	18%	8%	83	+0.3
●Lars Nootbaar 2022 · MLB	24	47→53	48→55	42→50	50	.236/.300/.368	.132	.277	17	7	21%	8%	88	+0.9	.240/.335/.421	.181	.282	21	10	22%	12%	116	+2.8	.237/.342/.416	.179	.277	20	10	21%	13%	114	+2.1
✕Chad Huffman 2009 · AA	24	49→50	47→50	42→45	50	.243/.317/.380	.136	.295	14	2	22%	8%	98	+1.6	.223/.294/.349	.126	.284	13	5	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.236/.309/.391	.155	.293	16	6	24%	8%	95	+0.9
●Jesús Aguilar 2015 · MLB	25	47→50	49→60	41→40	45	.239/.300/.385	.146	.301	17	2	26%	7%	92	+1.2	.227/.279/.376	.149	.277	18	2	25%	6%	81	+0.4	.256/.339/.471	.215	.307	29	0	26%	10%	127	+2.5
●Spencer Torkelson 2023 · MLB	23	41→44	52→60	42→40	50	.214/.298/.382	.168	.263	20	4	27%	10%	92	+1.2	.223/.304/.410	.187	.275	23	3	27%	10%	102	+1.8	.224/.310/.421	.197	.273	25	2	27%	10%	103	+2.1
●Christian Walker 2015 · MLB	24	49→52	50→65	43→45	41	.247/.294/.397	.150	.308	18	3	26%	6%	93	+1.3	.228/.275/.379	.151	.294	18	3	28%	5%	81	+0.4	.244/.329/.472	.228	.263	31	5	21%	10%	122	+3.4
●Ike Davis 2011 · MLB	24	51→53	53→60	41→40	52	.256/.333/.433	.177	.321	20	3	26%	10%	118	+3.0	.247/.332/.447	.200	.297	24	3	24%	11%	122	+3.3	.224/.326/.418	.194	.258	25	2	23%	13%	107	+1.8
●Matt Joyce 2009 · MLB	24	44→54	52→60	39→50	46	.226/.290/.400	.174	.280	19	4	26%	8%	92	+1.2	.239/.318/.429	.190	.293	20	10	24%	10%	111	+2.5	.258/.351/.454	.197	.305	21	9	21%	12%	122	+2.5
✕Kyle Parker 2014 · AA	24	46→51	52→55	42→45	43	.238/.297/.400	.162	.302	20	4	28%	7%	95	+1.4	.227/.271/.355	.128	.303	14	6	29%	5%	72	-0.2	.213/.255/.325	.112	.291	12	5	30%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Greg Bird 2017 · MLB	24	45→46	52→55	45→30	47	.233/.303/.403	.170	.290	19	3	26%	8%	98	+1.6	.220/.303/.401	.181	.262	21	3	24%	10%	98	+1.6	.194/.282/.377	.183	.230	23	0	27%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Nick Weglarz 2012 · AAA	24	43→47	50	42→45	53	.220/.314/.379	.159	.274	17	5	25%	11%	98	+1.6	.209/.293/.351	.142	.330	16	6	38%	10%	81	+0.4	.189/.276/.329	.140	.316	17	3	42%	10%	66	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)