Jonathon Long — OGILVIE

Jonathon Long1B Iowa Cubs

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION390 act + 260 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .318 / .380

PA260

HR6

K%24

BB%8

BABIP313

ISO132

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	81	17	2	0	6	7	25	4	0	0	210	304	457	761	247	220	27	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	77	20	3	0	6	11	18	4	0	0	260	380	532	913	273	264	20	12	401	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	576	503	121	19	0	22	57	160	8	3	0	241	327	410	737	169	301	28	10	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	576	480	140	25	1	23	80	121	8	3	0	292	401	492	893	200	340	21	14	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	607	540	155	19	3	14	54	143	9	2	0	287	362	411	773	124	364	24	9	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	607	514	157	23	3	20	79	116	9	2	0	305	406	479	885	173	359	19	13	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	CHC	—	390	356	82	19	1	8	28	96	3	1	0	230	292	357	649	126	292	25	7	287	78	-10	+0	+0	-7	+11	-0.6
YTD	24	AAA	CHC	—	390	341	92	23	1	10	41	80	3	1	0	270	351	431	783	161	325	21	11	347	124	+10	+0	+0	-7	+11	1.5
ROS	24	AAA	CHC	10%	260	234	58	11	1	6	21	63	3	1	0	248	318	380	698	132	313	24	8	314	99	-0	+0	-1	-5	+7	0.2
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	10%	26	24	6	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	250	308	417	724	167	314	23	8	309	94	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
FULL	24	AAA	CHC	—	416	380	88	20	1	9	30	102	3	1	0	232	293	361	654	129	293	25	7	288	79	-10	+0	-0	-7	+12	-0.6
TOT	24	AAA	CHC	—	650	590	140	30	2	14	49	159	6	2	0	237	302	366	668	129	301	24	8	298	86	-10	+0	-1	-12	+18	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	CHC	47%	581	522	133	25	2	16	48	138	6	2	0	255	325	402	727	148	312	24	8	321	104	+3	+0	-2	-10	+16	0.7
2028	26	MLB	CHC	64%	609	547	139	26	2	18	51	144	6	2	0	254	325	408	732	154	310	24	8	324	106	+4	+0	-2	-11	+17	0.9
2029	27	MLB	CHC	70%	627	563	142	27	2	18	53	149	6	2	0	252	323	403	726	151	309	24	8	324	106	+4	+0	-2	-11	+18	0.9
2030	28	MLB	CHC	73%	626	561	141	26	2	18	54	149	6	2	0	251	324	401	725	150	308	24	9	323	105	+4	+0	-3	-11	+18	0.8
2027	25	MLB	CHC	47%	272	245	62	12	1	7	22	65	3	1	0	253	322	396	718	143	313	24	8	316	100	-0	+0	-1	-5	+8	0.2
2028	26	MLB	CHC	64%	391	351	89	17	1	11	33	93	4	1	0	254	325	402	726	148	312	24	8	319	102	+1	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.4
2029	27	MLB	CHC	70%	438	394	100	19	1	13	37	104	4	1	0	254	324	406	730	152	311	24	8	318	102	+1	+0	-1	-8	+12	0.4
2030	28	MLB	CHC	73%	455	409	102	19	1	13	39	108	4	1	0	249	321	396	717	147	310	24	9	317	101	+0	+0	-2	-8	+13	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1582	1423	359	68	4	45	133	376	15	4	0	252	323	401	723	148	311	24	8	317	101	+2	+1	-6	-28	+45	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	147	28	2	18	55	154	6	2	0	251	322	398	721	147	310	24	8	317	101	+1	+0	-2	-12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	3978	3551	906	155	12	118	345	971	48	14	0	255	329	405	735	150	317	24	9	325	107	+29	+3	-10	-71	+113	6.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	147	25	2	19	56	159	8	2	0	253	327	402	729	148	315	24	9	325	107	+5	+0	-2	-12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	77	20	3	0	6	11	18	4	0	260	380	532	913	273	264	20	12	401	165	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	200	159	54	9	0	7	35	33	2	0	340	464	528	993	189	382	16	18	432	189	+20	+0	—	—	+6	2.6
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	289	247	61	12	0	10	34	68	5	2	247	350	417	767	170	297	24	12	342	120	+7	+0	—	—	+8	1.5
2024	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	87	74	25	4	1	6	11	20	1	1	338	430	662	1.092	324	388	23	13	463	213	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	607	514	157	23	3	20	79	116	9	2	305	406	479	885	173	359	19	13	392	158	+40	+0	—	—	+17	5.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	6	3,147	84	34	257	336	412	-36	-3	9.0	9.0
#1Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	/162	664	18	7	257	336	412	-7.6	-0.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Shea Hillenbrandlast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,816 PA	7	3,816	108	16	284	321	440	-48	-41	6.7	6.7
	/162	664	19	3	284	321	440	-8.4	-7.2	1.2	pk7: 7
#3Trey Mancinilast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,367 PA	6	3,367	126	2	262	327	445	-47	-48	6.3	6.3
	/162	664	25	0	262	327	445	-9.2	-9.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#4Jesús Aguilarlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,594 PA	7	2,594	114	1	255	324	452	-46	-35	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	29	0	255	324	452	-11.9	-9.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,588	45	5	254	321	404	-28	-8	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	19	2	254	321	404	-11.9	-3.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathon Long (OGILVIE)	24	40→49	50→52	40	51	237/302/366	129	301	14	2	24%	8%	86	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Alec Bohm 2021 · MLB	24	52→56	49→50	44→45	50	261/322/411	150	303	16	6	20%	8%	108	+2.3	259/312/381	122	314	13	6	21%	7%	95	+1.4	270/324/418	148	300	16	4	15%	6%	108	+2.2
●Andrew Vaughn 2023 · MLB	25	50→53	50→55	43→30	48	254/314/409	156	288	18	2	19%	7%	105	+2.1	252/307/411	159	292	19	2	20%	6%	102	+1.9	247/304/405	158	285	19	1	20%	6%	97	+1.5
●Luis Urías 2021 · MLB	24	47→57	47→55	46→45	48	233/309/369	136	296	14	7	25%	8%	92	+1.2	239/331/408	169	283	20	5	22%	10%	112	+2.6	232/333/399	167	273	21	3	22%	11%	108	+1.7
✕Jake Holton 2023 · AA	25	47→50	49→50	42→45	48	231/322/386	155	307	16	5	28%	9%	103	+1.9	229/307/378	149	292	17	5	26%	8%	95	+1.4	224/299/375	151	283	19	4	27%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Chad Huffman 2009 · AA	24	50→52	47→55	42→45	50	247/319/383	136	300	14	2	22%	8%	100	+1.7	220/290/341	121	284	12	5	26%	8%	77	+0.1	236/309/393	157	290	17	6	24%	8%	95	+0.9
●Delmon Young 2010 · MLB	24	57→61	46→55	44→55	42	283/319/411	129	333	13	9	19%	4%	106	+2.2	281/317/441	160	315	18	4	17%	4%	114	+2.7	280/316/442	161	310	19	2	16%	4%	109	+2.3
✕Kyle Blanks 2011 · MLB	24	47→57	52→55	45	47	237/322/406	169	313	20	5	29%	9%	108	+2.3	231/296/406	175	309	20	6	30%	7%	96	+1.5	237/306/415	178	309	21	3	29%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Mark Zagunis 2017 · AAA	24	52→54	46→50	47→50	51	250/332/393	144	314	12	9	23%	9%	108	+2.3	231/317/359	128	315	13	10	28%	10%	93	+1.3	220/308/335	116	314	12	10	31%	10%	80	+0.2
★Domingo Santana 2017 · MLB	24	50→57	53→60	40→50	46	243/323/417	174	349	21	6	34%	10%	110	+2.4	256/339/446	190	367	23	10	33%	11%	124	+3.4	256/340/445	190	367	24	10	34%	11%	121	+2.8
●Christian Walker 2015 · MLB	24	49→53	51→60	43→45	41	250/295/408	158	313	20	3	27%	5%	96	+1.5	227/274/387	160	294	20	3	29%	5%	82	+0.5	241/326/460	219	262	29	5	21%	10%	119	+3.2
✕Carter Kieboom 2023 · MLB	25	44→50	45→50	43→45	52	220/315/340	120	274	14	5	24%	10%	89	+0.9	222/293/341	119	290	14	7	27%	8%	78	+0.2	231/290/331	100	300	10	7	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Kyle Parker 2014 · AA	24	47→52	52→55	41→45	44	242/300/409	167	303	21	4	27%	7%	99	+1.7	219/262/341	122	299	13	6	30%	5%	64	-0.8	205/247/313	107	286	11	5	31%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Brock Peterson 2008 · AA	24	49→50	50→55	43→40	43	243/307/398	155	309	17	4	26%	6%	99	+1.7	236/291/388	152	309	17	2	28%	6%	89	+1.0	234/290/393	159	303	20	0	29%	6%	87	+0.7
●Jesus Montero 2014 · MLB	24	49→59	48→55	38→30	44	249/296/390	140	297	17	2	22%	6%	92	+1.2	259/296/407	148	313	17	3	22%	5%	96	+1.5	272/304/412	140	329	15	2	22%	4%	97	+1.3
✕Kennys Vargas 2015 · MLB	24	48→53	53→55	39→30	42	249/300/418	170	306	22	2	26%	6%	101	+1.8	237/306/404	167	302	22	2	28%	9%	100	+1.7	227/306/397	170	289	23	0	29%	10%	96	+1.3
●Bryan De La Cruz 2022 · MLB	25	53→59	49→55	42→45	43	265/310/414	149	332	17	6	25%	6%	104	+2.0	260/304/428	168	321	21	6	25%	6%	105	+2.1	251/294/415	164	307	21	5	25%	5%	96	+1.3
●Khalil Greene 2004 · MLB	24	47→54	51→60	45	45	237/300/403	166	294	18	8	26%	7%	97	+1.5	257/325/430	173	294	18	6	18%	8%	115	+2.7	255/324/430	175	290	18	6	18%	8%	108	+1.9
✕Zach Lutz 2011 · AAA	25	46→48	52→55	39→30	47	235/309/400	165	302	19	3	28%	9%	100	+1.7	239/308/392	153	330	17	2	31%	8%	98	+1.6	232/306/372	140	327	15	0	31%	9%	89	+0.6
●Tyler White 2016 · AAA	25	52→56	46→60	42→40	55	253/339/385	132	301	13	2	20%	10%	109	+2.4	243/311/412	169	287	21	4	22%	8%	105	+2.1	255/331/435	180	307	22	3	24%	9%	116	+2.2
●Devin Mesoraco 2012 · MLB	24	44→49	53→60	42→40	44	230/284/406	176	271	20	3	24%	6%	92	+1.2	234/295/395	161	269	19	3	20%	7%	93	+1.3	233/324/433	200	262	26	1	22%	9%	110	+1.3