Jonathon Long

1B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1306ETA2028MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/A+/INTL3 orgs576.292/.401/.492233118—.248/.334/.401
202523AAACHC607.305/.406/.479202117—.285/.363/.406
202624AAAMIA598.275/.370/.44716392—.243/.314/.375
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBMIA21.248/.325/.372001050.0
2028PROJ42% MLB26MLBMIA211.248/.326/.380511070.2
2029PROJ55% MLB27MLBMIA281.247/.324/.377711060.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV86
BB%68
Whiff%67
Chase%65
K%59
Z-Con%47
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 79%
CompsJake Holton (age 25) · Chad Huffman (age 25) · Andrew Vaughn (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†105
AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .325 / .372
PA21
HR0
K%24
BB%10
BABIP315
ISO53
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.20.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$3M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9277 20306 11184 00 260380532913 273264 2012 401 98 — — — — — —
202422 AATennessee Smokies — 200159 54907 35332 00 340464528993 189382 1618 432 150 — — — — — —
202422 A+South Bend Cubs — 289247 6112010 34685 20 247350417767 170297 2412 342 72 — — — — — —
202422 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 8774 25416 11201 10 3384306621.092 324388 2313 463 200 — — — — — —
202523 AAAIowa Cubs — 607514 15723320 791169 20 305406479885 173359 1913 392 117 — — — — — —
202624 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598512 14136216 751293 30 275370447817 172337 2213 361 92 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9281 16205 7244 00 198293407701 210225 268 313 98 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 200169 52807 25412 00 308403479882 172354 2012 390 150 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 289257 53909 24865 20 206287346633 140258 308 275 72 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 607537 15320313 571419 20 285363406769 121360 239 341 117 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598536 13031212 531553 30 243314375689 132313 269 304 92 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9281 16205 7244 00 198293407701 210212 268 313 98 — — — — — —
202321 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9277 20306 11184 00 260380532913 273264 2012 401 98 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 576502 12521019 581508 30 249336404741 155311 2610 322 104 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAW3 teams — 576480 14025123 801218 30 292401492893 200340 2114 392 104 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 607537 15320313 571419 20 285363406769 121362 239 341 117 — — — — — —
202523 AAA RAWIowa Cubs — 607514 15723320 791169 20 305406479885 173359 1913 392 117 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598536 13031212 531553 30 243314375689 132316 269 304 92 — — — — — —
202624 AAA RAWJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598512 14136216 751293 30 275370447817 172337 2213 361 92 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9281 16205 7244 00 198293407701 210225 268 313 98 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 576505 12521019 581508 30 248336402738 154297 2610 322 104 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 607536 15320313 571419 20 285363407770 121360 239 341 117 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598537 13031212 531553 30 242314374688 132313 269 304 92 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 576505 12521019 581508 30 248336402738 154297 2610 322 104 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 607536 15320313 571419 20 285363407770 121360 239 341 117 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 598537 13031212 531553 30 242314374688 132313 269 304 92 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIA 10% 380338 871728 35934 20 256332389721 133326 249 323 105 +2 +0 -1 -7 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIA 10% 2119 4100 250 00 248325372697 124315 2410 314 105 +0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIA 42% 498444 11422212 461225 20 257333397730 140324 249 326 107 +4 +0 -1 -9 +11 0.6
202927 MLB MLEMIA 55% 516458 11722213 481265 20 255331394726 139322 249 325 106 +4 +0 -1 -9 +11 0.5
203028 MLB MLEMIA 61% 523465 11822213 481285 10 252328390718 137319 249 321 104 +2 +0 -2 -9 +11 0.3
203129 MLB MLEMIA 62% 522464 11622212 481295 10 249325384708 135315 259 317 101 +1 +0 -2 -9 +11 0.0
203230 MLB MLEMIA 63% 516460 11321212 471294 10 245320376696 131312 259 313 98 -1 +0 -3 -9 +11 -0.2
202826 MLB CTXMIA 42% 211187 47815 20512 10 248326380705 131314 249 317 107 +2 +0 -0 -4 +5 0.2
202927 MLB CTXMIA 55% 281250 621117 26693 10 247324377701 131311 259 315 106 +2 +0 -1 -5 +6 0.3
203028 MLB CTXMIA 61% 319284 691217 29783 00 244321373694 129308 249 312 104 +1 +0 -1 -6 +7 0.2
203129 MLB CTXMIA 62% 325289 691217 30803 00 241317367685 126305 259 308 101 +0 +0 -1 -6 +7 0.0
203230 MLB CTXMIA 63% 326291 691217 29813 00 237313360673 122302 259 303 98 -1 +0 -2 -6 +7 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14621301 31655533 13435914 20 243320369689 126309 259 310 103 +5 +0 -5 -26 +32 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 14024215 601606 10 242320369688 126307 259 310 103 +2 +0 -2 -12 +14 0.2
Career— MLE — 46584134 105019216116 431115550 160 254332392724 138323 259 321 103 +10 +2 -10 -50 +60 1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 14627216 601617 20 253331390721 137322 259 321 103 +2 +0 -2 -12 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 598 PAwOBA .354 → .304 (−50)K% 21.6% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.57%÷1.000×1.200——25.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.37%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0488.95%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×1.0480.49%
Singles /BIP22.72%÷1.000×0.930×0.996×1.04822.04%
Doubles /BIP9.40%÷1.000×0.830×0.996×1.0488.14%
Triples /BIP0.52%÷1.000×0.970×0.996×1.0480.53%
Home runs /BIP4.18%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0483.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .354 → .304; ISO .172 → .139; BABIP .337 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 607 PAwOBA .385 → .341 (−44)K% 19.1% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.11%÷0.989×1.200——23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.01%÷1.005×0.690—×1.0509.38%
HBP% /PA1.48%—×0.940—×1.0501.46%
Singles /BIP27.89%÷0.949×0.930×1.022×1.05029.31%
Doubles /BIP5.78%÷1.033×0.830×1.022×1.0504.98%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷0.939×0.970×1.022×1.0500.84%
Home runs /BIP5.03%÷1.125×0.700—×1.0503.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .385 → .341; ISO .173 → .129; BABIP .359 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 289 PAwOBA .337 → .275 (−62)K% 23.5% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷1.005×1.270——29.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.021×0.710—×1.0128.28%
HBP% /PA1.73%—×0.790—×1.0121.38%
Singles /BIP21.79%÷1.009×0.920×0.982×1.01219.76%
Doubles /BIP6.70%÷1.034×0.810×0.982×1.0125.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.979×0.850×0.982×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP5.59%÷0.909×0.800—×1.0124.97%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .337 → .275; ISO .170 → .143; BABIP .297 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 200 PAwOBA .429 → .390 (−39)K% 16.5% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.50%÷0.975×1.220——20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.00%÷0.959×0.680—×1.04212.56%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.840—×1.0420.88%
Singles /BIP30.16%÷1.015×0.920×0.990×1.04228.22%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.059×0.910×0.990×1.0426.33%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.985×0.880×0.990×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷0.854×0.800—×1.0425.42%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .429 → .390; ISO .189 → .187; BABIP .382 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 92 PAwOBA .387 → .313 (−74)K% 19.6% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.57%÷1.011×1.360——26.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.87%÷0.967×0.690—×1.0157.87%
HBP% /PA4.35%—×0.780—×1.0153.44%
Singles /BIP18.64%÷1.046×0.920×0.976×1.01516.24%
Doubles /BIP5.08%÷0.975×0.830×0.976×1.0154.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×0.976×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP10.17%÷0.957×0.800—×1.0158.63%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .387 → .313; ISO .273 → .225; BABIP .264 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .