Jonathon Long — OGILVIE

Jonathon Long1B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .325 / .372

PA32

HR1

K%25

BB%9

BABIP315

ISO138

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	77	20	3	0	6	11	18	4	0	0	260	380	532	913	273	264	20	12	401	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	200	159	54	9	0	7	35	33	2	0	0	340	464	528	993	189	382	16	18	432	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	289	247	61	12	0	10	34	68	5	2	0	247	350	417	767	170	297	24	12	342	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	87	74	25	4	1	6	11	20	1	1	0	338	430	662	1.092	324	388	23	13	463	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	607	514	157	23	3	20	79	116	9	2	0	305	406	479	885	173	359	19	13	392	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	512	141	36	2	16	75	129	3	3	0	275	370	447	817	172	337	22	13	361	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	81	16	2	0	5	7	24	4	0	0	198	293	407	701	210	225	26	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	200	169	52	8	0	7	25	41	2	0	0	308	403	479	882	172	354	20	12	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	289	257	53	9	0	9	24	86	5	2	0	206	287	346	633	140	258	30	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	607	537	153	20	3	13	57	141	9	2	0	285	363	406	769	121	360	23	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	536	130	31	2	12	53	155	3	3	0	243	314	375	689	132	313	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	81	16	2	0	5	7	24	4	0	0	198	293	407	701	210	212	26	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	77	20	3	0	6	11	18	4	0	0	260	380	532	913	273	264	20	12	401	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	576	502	125	21	0	19	58	150	8	3	0	249	336	404	741	155	311	26	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	576	480	140	25	1	23	80	121	8	3	0	292	401	492	893	200	340	21	14	392	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	607	537	153	20	3	13	57	141	9	2	0	285	363	406	769	121	362	23	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	607	514	157	23	3	20	79	116	9	2	0	305	406	479	885	173	359	19	13	392	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	536	130	31	2	12	53	155	3	3	0	243	314	375	689	132	316	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	512	141	36	2	16	75	129	3	3	0	275	370	447	817	172	337	22	13	361	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	92	81	16	2	0	5	7	24	4	0	0	198	293	407	701	210	225	26	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	576	505	125	21	0	19	58	150	8	3	0	248	336	402	738	154	297	26	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	607	536	153	20	3	13	57	141	9	2	0	285	363	407	770	121	360	23	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	537	130	31	2	12	53	155	3	3	0	242	314	374	688	132	313	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	576	505	125	21	0	19	58	150	8	3	0	248	336	402	738	154	297	26	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	607	536	153	20	3	13	57	141	9	2	0	285	363	407	770	121	360	23	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	598	537	130	31	2	12	53	155	3	3	0	242	314	374	688	132	313	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	10%	380	338	87	17	2	8	35	93	4	2	0	256	332	389	721	133	326	24	9	323	105	+2	+0	-1	-7	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	10%	32	29	7	1	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	248	325	372	697	125	315	25	9	314	105	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	42%	565	503	128	24	2	14	52	137	5	3	0	256	332	398	730	141	322	24	9	326	107	+5	+1	-1	-10	+12	0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	580	517	131	25	2	14	53	141	5	2	0	254	330	395	726	141	319	24	9	324	106	+4	+0	-1	-10	+13	0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	61%	586	522	131	25	2	14	54	143	5	1	0	252	328	391	718	139	317	24	9	321	104	+3	+0	-2	-10	+13	0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	62%	585	522	130	25	2	14	53	144	5	1	0	249	324	384	708	135	314	25	9	317	101	+1	+0	-3	-10	+13	0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	580	518	127	24	2	13	52	145	5	1	0	245	320	375	695	130	311	25	9	312	97	-2	+0	-3	-10	+13	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	42%	240	214	54	10	1	6	22	58	2	1	0	248	325	380	705	132	312	24	9	316	107	+2	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	316	281	68	12	1	7	29	77	3	1	0	246	323	378	701	132	309	24	9	315	106	+2	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	61%	357	318	77	14	1	8	33	87	3	1	0	243	320	374	694	130	306	24	9	312	104	+2	+0	-1	-6	+8	0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	62%	365	326	78	14	1	8	33	90	3	0	0	240	317	367	684	127	304	25	9	308	101	+0	+0	-2	-7	+8	0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	366	327	78	14	1	8	33	91	3	0	0	237	313	359	672	122	301	25	9	303	97	-1	+0	-2	-7	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1644	1466	355	64	5	37	150	403	14	3	0	242	318	368	687	126	307	25	9	310	103	+5	+1	-6	-29	+36	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	140	25	2	15	59	159	6	1	0	241	318	369	687	128	305	24	9	310	103	+2	+0	-2	-12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5089	4522	1144	211	16	125	469	1258	52	18	0	253	330	390	720	137	321	25	9	321	103	+12	+2	-10	-57	+70	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	146	27	2	16	60	161	7	2	0	253	331	389	720	137	321	25	9	321	103	+2	+0	-2	-12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Trey Mancinilast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,367 PA	5.1	3,367	126	2	262	327	445	-47	-48	6.3	6.3
/162	664	25	0	-9.2	-9.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#2Jesús Aguilarlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,594 PA	3.9	2,594	114	1	255	324	452	-46	-35	4.2	4.2
/162	664	29	0	-11.9	-9.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,676	41	4	252	324	389	-30	-8	2.2	2.2
/162	664	16	2	-11.9	-3.2	0.9	pk7: 2
#3Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Yonder Alonsolast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,744 PA	5.6	3,744	100	22	260	333	405	-66	-62	1.3	2.0
/162	664	18	4	-11.7	-11.0	0.2	pk7: 3
#5Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Mountcastlelast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,669 PA	4.0	2,669	98	17	263	312	438	-47	-38	1.6	1.6
/162	664	24	4	-11.6	-9.5	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathon Long (OGILVIE)	25	40→49	50→52	40	51	254/330/386	132	326	7	2	25%	9%	105	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Holton 2023 · AA	25	47→51	47→50	42→45	50	229/321/367	138	298	14	5	26%	9%	97	+1.1	230/310/365	135	290	15	5	25%	9%	93	+0.8	225/303/364	138	283	16	4	25%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Chad Huffman 2010 · AAA	25	47→52	48→50	43→45	48	235/311/376	141	293	15	5	24%	8%	96	+1.0	224/292/344	120	291	12	5	26%	8%	81	-0.1	231/303/384	152	286	16	6	24%	8%	92	+0.5
●Tyler White 2016 · AAA	25	52→57	46→60	42→40	55	254/341/390	136	300	13	2	19%	10%	109	+2.0	242/311/413	171	284	21	4	22%	8%	104	+1.6	250/328/427	178	300	21	3	23%	9%	113	+1.8
✕Mark Zagunis 2018 · MLB	25	50→55	47→50	46→50	54	243/338/389	146	313	14	8	25%	11%	109	+2.0	230/309/343	113	341	10	11	32%	9%	87	+0.4	223/300/318	95	344	8	11	34%	8%	76	-0.3
●Andrew Vaughn 2023 · MLB	25	50→53	50→55	43→30	48	255/315/413	158	289	18	2	19%	7%	105	+1.7	252/308/412	160	292	19	2	20%	6%	103	+1.5	256/319/404	149	297	16	1	19%	8%	105	+1.4
✕Aaron Bates 2009 · AA	25	51→61	49→50	44→30	47	250/329/399	149	319	16	2	26%	8%	107	+1.9	243/307/357	114	322	12	2	27%	7%	89	+0.5	245/309/347	102	328	11	1	27%	7%	85	+0.2
●Connor Joe 2019 · AAA	26	46→51	45→50	41→45	48	227/300/358	131	289	12	4	25%	8%	87	+0.4	235/324/384	149	292	16	4	24%	10%	103	+1.5	240/337/394	153	295	15	5	22%	11%	110	+1.5
✕Jorge Bonifacio 2019 · MLB	26	50→51	50→55	44→45	47	247/315/405	158	319	17	3	27%	8%	103	+1.6	206/266/351	145	271	16	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	191/262/339	147	241	18	7	28%	8%	68	-0.8
✕Taylor Jones 2020 · AAA	26	45→47	49→50	43→40	46	227/300/372	145	297	17	2	28%	8%	91	+0.6	239/307/397	158	310	18	3	27%	8%	99	+1.2	221/294/373	153	287	16	3	28%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Jason Delaney 2008 · AA	25	53→56	45	43→40	48	256/318/378	122	321	12	3	23%	8%	98	+1.2	244/312/350	106	316	8	4	23%	9%	88	+0.5	237/308/335	99	307	6	3	23%	9%	82	+0.0
●Brady Shoemaker 2012 · AAA	25	51→54	45→50	44→40	42	244/300/371	127	329	12	5	28%	6%	90	+0.6	250/322/390	140	326	13	4	26%	8%	103	+1.5	248/323/382	134	308	14	2	23%	8%	98	+0.9
✕Alex Hassan 2013 · AAA	25	51→56	43→45	46→45	53	243/330/354	111	301	10	5	22%	10%	97	+1.1	257/326/359	102	337	8	3	24%	9%	97	+1.1	265/325/361	96	349	6	1	24%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Brock Peterson 2009 · AAA	25	48→53	48→50	44→40	42	239/295/388	149	306	16	3	27%	6%	92	+0.7	236/293/384	148	311	16	3	28%	6%	91	+0.6	230/287/383	154	299	19	0	29%	6%	85	+0.2
●Bryan De La Cruz 2022 · MLB	25	54→59	47→55	42→45	43	265/310/404	139	333	15	6	25%	6%	101	+1.4	260/303/426	166	322	20	6	25%	6%	104	+1.6	250/294/417	167	306	21	5	25%	5%	99	+1.2
✕Zach Lutz 2011 · AAA	25	48	51→55	39→30	47	240/313/402	162	305	19	3	27%	8%	102	+1.5	244/315/399	155	334	18	2	30%	8%	102	+1.5	240/314/384	145	333	16	0	31%	9%	96	+0.6
✕Vince Belnome 2013 · AAA	25	52→54	49→50	43→40	50	253/328/402	149	338	17	6	29%	10%	107	+1.9	231/306/340	109	322	9	4	28%	10%	84	+0.2	218/296/315	97	308	7	1	29%	10%	74	-0.4
✕Rangel Ravelo 2017 · AAA	25	51→58	44→50	44→45	46	248/304/373	125	298	10	5	20%	6%	92	+0.7	252/313/388	136	299	14	3	20%	7%	99	+1.2	264/334/421	157	300	18	0	18%	8%	111	+1.1
●Spencer Steer 2023 · MLB	25	42→52	51→55	43→50	47	220/292/381	161	266	18	6	25%	8%	90	+0.6	240/322/410	170	286	18	13	22%	10%	107	+1.9	241/327/413	173	284	19	15	21%	10%	110	+2.1
●Russ Canzler 2011 · AA	25	45→55	51→55	43→45	44	230/287/395	165	290	18	7	27%	7%	91	+0.6	241/300/400	159	314	17	4	27%	7%	97	+1.1	237/296/384	148	306	16	2	27%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Justin Foscue 2024 · AAA	25	47→48	50→55	45→50	53	236/321/398	162	265	17	9	18%	9%	104	+1.6	235/314/394	159	267	17	8	19%	9%	101	+1.4	235/311/400	165	268	19	6	20%	9%	98	+0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps