Russ Canzler
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 27 | AAAPIT | 523 | .252/.346/.376 | 12 | 1 | 71 | — | .221/.284/.328 |
| 2014 | 28 | AAAPHI | 441 | .276/.353/.474 | 13 | 3 | 88 | — | .234/.290/.403 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAAPHI | 432 | .274/.335/.416 | 10 | 2 | 64 | — | .222/.265/.335 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 188 | 157 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 299 | 396 | 427 | 822 | 127 | 387 | 22 | 13 | 359 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 503 | 460 | 124 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 88 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 270 | 324 | 376 | 700 | 107 | 316 | 17 | 7 | 312 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 361 | 326 | 89 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 273 | 331 | 463 | 794 | 190 | 310 | 19 | 7 | 343 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 267 | 233 | 60 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 258 | 347 | 399 | 746 | 142 | 289 | 15 | 12 | 335 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 108 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 318 | 430 | 748 | 160 | 333 | 22 | 6 | 328 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 411 | 355 | 102 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 46 | 95 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 287 | 377 | 566 | 943 | 279 | 332 | 23 | 11 | 404 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 474 | 149 | 40 | 4 | 18 | 67 | 129 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 314 | 403 | 530 | 932 | 215 | 396 | 23 | 12 | 407 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | — | 97 | 93 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 299 | 398 | 697 | 129 | 324 | 23 | 4 | 310 | 91 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 539 | 487 | 129 | 36 | 3 | 22 | 46 | 128 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 265 | 331 | 487 | 817 | 222 | 314 | 24 | 9 | 356 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 523 | 452 | 114 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 101 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 346 | 376 | 722 | 124 | 297 | 19 | 12 | 325 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 441 | 388 | 107 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 97 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 353 | 474 | 827 | 198 | 330 | 22 | 10 | 359 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 432 | 394 | 108 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 78 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 274 | 335 | 416 | 751 | 142 | 318 | 18 | 8 | 334 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 97 | 93 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 299 | 398 | 697 | 129 | 324 | 23 | 4 | 310 | 96 | -0 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +2 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 188 | 167 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 228 | 291 | 317 | 609 | 90 | 322 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 503 | 472 | 110 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 233 | 272 | 316 | 587 | 83 | 291 | 24 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 361 | 333 | 78 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 234 | 280 | 396 | 676 | 162 | 287 | 27 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 267 | 243 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 230 | 294 | 350 | 644 | 119 | 267 | 19 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 108 | 102 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 373 | 634 | 147 | 304 | 31 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 411 | 371 | 85 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 229 | 296 | 434 | 730 | 205 | 285 | 29 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 491 | 138 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 147 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 281 | 353 | 464 | 818 | 183 | 361 | 27 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | — | 97 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 289 | 394 | 682 | 128 | 324 | 23 | 3 | 302 | 91 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 539 | 501 | 104 | 28 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 157 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 208 | 258 | 361 | 619 | 154 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 523 | 476 | 105 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 133 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 107 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 441 | 402 | 94 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 111 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 290 | 403 | 693 | 169 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 432 | 406 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 222 | 265 | 335 | 600 | 113 | 261 | 21 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 188 | 167 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 228 | 291 | 317 | 609 | 90 | 333 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 188 | 157 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 299 | 396 | 427 | 822 | 127 | 387 | 22 | 13 | 359 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 503 | 472 | 110 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 233 | 272 | 316 | 587 | 83 | 298 | 24 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 503 | 460 | 124 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 88 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 270 | 324 | 376 | 700 | 107 | 316 | 17 | 7 | 312 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 361 | 333 | 78 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 234 | 280 | 396 | 676 | 162 | 298 | 27 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ RAW | Daytona Cubs | — | 361 | 326 | 89 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 273 | 331 | 463 | 794 | 190 | 310 | 19 | 7 | 343 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 345 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 84 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 229 | 285 | 357 | 641 | 128 | 281 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 375 | 333 | 87 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 65 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 261 | 339 | 408 | 747 | 147 | 302 | 17 | 10 | 333 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 411 | 371 | 85 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 229 | 296 | 434 | 730 | 205 | 289 | 29 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 411 | 355 | 102 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 46 | 95 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 287 | 377 | 566 | 943 | 279 | 332 | 23 | 11 | 404 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 491 | 138 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 147 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 281 | 353 | 464 | 818 | 183 | 367 | 27 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 474 | 149 | 40 | 4 | 18 | 67 | 129 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 314 | 403 | 530 | 932 | 215 | 396 | 23 | 12 | 407 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 636 | 595 | 129 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 179 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 217 | 263 | 366 | 629 | 150 | 276 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 636 | 580 | 154 | 39 | 3 | 25 | 50 | 150 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 266 | 326 | 472 | 798 | 207 | 315 | 24 | 8 | 349 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 523 | 476 | 105 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 133 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 107 | 279 | 25 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 523 | 452 | 114 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 101 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 346 | 376 | 722 | 124 | 297 | 19 | 12 | 325 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 441 | 402 | 94 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 111 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 290 | 403 | 693 | 169 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 441 | 388 | 107 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 97 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 353 | 474 | 827 | 198 | 330 | 22 | 10 | 359 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 432 | 406 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 222 | 265 | 335 | 600 | 113 | 261 | 21 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 432 | 394 | 108 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 78 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 274 | 335 | 416 | 751 | 142 | 318 | 18 | 8 | 334 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 188 | 171 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 222 | 291 | 310 | 601 | 88 | 322 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 503 | 473 | 110 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 233 | 272 | 315 | 587 | 82 | 291 | 24 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 361 | 337 | 78 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 231 | 280 | 392 | 671 | 160 | 287 | 27 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 345 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 84 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 229 | 285 | 357 | 641 | 128 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 411 | 373 | 85 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 228 | 296 | 432 | 727 | 204 | 285 | 29 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 490 | 138 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 147 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 282 | 353 | 465 | 819 | 184 | 361 | 27 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 636 | 594 | 129 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 179 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 217 | 263 | 367 | 630 | 150 | 276 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 523 | 476 | 105 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 133 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 107 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 441 | 406 | 94 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 111 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 290 | 399 | 689 | 167 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 432 | 405 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 222 | 265 | 336 | 601 | 114 | 261 | 21 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 97 | 93 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 299 | 398 | 697 | 129 | 324 | 23 | 4 | 310 | 82 | -0 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +2 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 623 | 167 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 27 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 298 | 396 | 695 | 128 | 322 | 23 | 4 | 310 | 82 | -3 | +0 | -18 | -46 | +14 | -5.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4420 | 4058 | 946 | 210 | 22 | 106 | 293 | 1145 | 20 | 42 | 38 | 233 | 288 | 374 | 662 | 141 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -0 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +2 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 139 | 31 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 168 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 233 | 288 | 375 | 663 | 142 | 294 | 26 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -3 | +0 | -18 | -46 | +14 | -5.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 432 PAwOBA .326 → .263 (−63)K% 18.1% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.06% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.10% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×0.982 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷1.314 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×0.982 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×0.982 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷0.845 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 98, 2B 163, 3B 84, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .326 → .263; ISO .142 → .116; BABIP .318 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 441 PAwOBA .355 → .298 (−57)K% 22.0% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.050 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.27% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 17.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 8.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.136 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.47% | ÷0.922 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.04% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 127, K 110, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .355 → .298; ISO .198 → .173; BABIP .330 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 523 PAwOBA .317 → .273 (−44)K% 19.3% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.31% | ÷0.909 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.90% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.93% | ÷0.978 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 22.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.56% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.080 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.901 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 3.20% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 116, K 82, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .317 → .273; ISO .124 → .112; BABIP .297 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAColumbus Clippers · 539 PAwOBA .348 → .272 (−76)K% 23.7% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷0.974 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.35% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.94% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 17.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.03% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.101 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.13% | ÷1.178 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 120, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .348 → .272; ISO .222 → .163; BABIP .314 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAADurham Bulls · 550 PAwOBA .399 → .352 (−47)K% 23.5% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.051 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.18% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.22% | ÷0.969 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 24.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.59% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 9.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.960 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 4.71% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 110, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .399 → .352; ISO .215 → .191; BABIP .396 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AATennessee Smokies · 411 PAwOBA .398 → .315 (−83)K% 23.1% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.11% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.048 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.85% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.77% | ÷1.126 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 8.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.049 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 125, 3B 101, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .398 → .315; ISO .279 → .216; BABIP .332 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AATennessee Smokies · 267 PAwOBA .326 → .284 (−42)K% 15.4% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .326 → .284; ISO .142 → .125; BABIP .289 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Daytona Cubs · 108 PAwOBA .322 → .262 (−60)K% 22.2% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 19.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.960 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 9.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .322 → .262; ISO .160 → .131; BABIP .333 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).