Jake Holton
1B Sacramento River Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AADET | 410 | .279/.377/.459 | 14 | 6 | 98 | — | .253/.325/.401 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 515 | .272/.366/.498 | 21 | 7 | 93 | — | .211/.281/.372 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAASF | 308 | .219/.361/.348 | 6 | 1 | 69 | — | .195/.301/.290 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBSF | 16 | .208/.291/.334 | 0 | 0 | 81 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBSF | 55 | .206/.288/.329 | 1 | 0 | 79 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 128 | 104 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 308 | 433 | 490 | 923 | 183 | 372 | 19 | 12 | 410 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 187 | 153 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 389 | 451 | 840 | 190 | 324 | 22 | 13 | 373 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 217 | 525 | 333 | 31 | 4 | 257 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 470 | 381 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 71 | 86 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 262 | 397 | 430 | 828 | 168 | 306 | 18 | 15 | 374 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 463 | 379 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 380 | 401 | 781 | 156 | 264 | 15 | 15 | 356 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 351 | 98 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 44 | 91 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 279 | 377 | 459 | 836 | 179 | 336 | 22 | 11 | 370 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 464 | 405 | 104 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 118 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 257 | 350 | 479 | 829 | 222 | 316 | 25 | 12 | 365 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 51 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 419 | 510 | 674 | 1.184 | 256 | 421 | 6 | 12 | 514 | 234 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 247 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 361 | 348 | 709 | 130 | 254 | 19 | 16 | 324 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 128 | 109 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 266 | 370 | 431 | 801 | 165 | 338 | 27 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 187 | 161 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 324 | 379 | 703 | 155 | 293 | 31 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 269 | 174 | 443 | 314 | 38 | 4 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 470 | 405 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 114 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 331 | 370 | 702 | 143 | 281 | 24 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 463 | 402 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 88 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 325 | 351 | 676 | 124 | 255 | 19 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 367 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 110 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 253 | 325 | 401 | 726 | 147 | 317 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 464 | 422 | 89 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 139 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 281 | 372 | 653 | 161 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 262 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 301 | 290 | 591 | 95 | 231 | 23 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 270 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 333 | 378 | 711 | 148 | 316 | 29 | 9 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 315 | 257 | 72 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 280 | 407 | 467 | 874 | 187 | 344 | 21 | 13 | 388 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 428 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 124 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 224 | 328 | 360 | 688 | 136 | 286 | 25 | 10 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 404 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 72 | 94 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 260 | 393 | 418 | 811 | 158 | 308 | 19 | 15 | 368 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 463 | 402 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 88 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 325 | 351 | 676 | 124 | 262 | 19 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 463 | 379 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 380 | 401 | 781 | 156 | 264 | 15 | 15 | 356 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 367 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 110 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 253 | 325 | 401 | 726 | 147 | 325 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 351 | 98 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 44 | 91 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 279 | 377 | 459 | 836 | 179 | 336 | 22 | 11 | 370 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 467 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 41 | 154 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 284 | 370 | 654 | 158 | 281 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 515 | 448 | 122 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 60 | 121 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 272 | 366 | 498 | 864 | 225 | 329 | 23 | 12 | 380 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 262 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 301 | 290 | 591 | 95 | 242 | 23 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 247 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 361 | 348 | 709 | 130 | 254 | 19 | 16 | 324 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 270 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 333 | 378 | 711 | 148 | 311 | 29 | 9 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 427 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 124 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 225 | 328 | 361 | 689 | 136 | 283 | 25 | 10 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 463 | 401 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 88 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 325 | 352 | 677 | 125 | 255 | 19 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 368 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 110 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 253 | 325 | 399 | 725 | 147 | 317 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 463 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 41 | 154 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 214 | 284 | 374 | 658 | 160 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 265 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 301 | 287 | 588 | 94 | 231 | 23 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 410 | 368 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 110 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 253 | 325 | 399 | 725 | 147 | 317 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 463 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 41 | 154 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 214 | 284 | 374 | 658 | 160 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 308 | 265 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 301 | 287 | 588 | 94 | 231 | 23 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 10% | 358 | 318 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 92 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 294 | 344 | 638 | 132 | 267 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 291 | 334 | 625 | 127 | 264 | 25 | 6 | 283 | 81 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 27% | 200 | 177 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 291 | 338 | 630 | 129 | 266 | 26 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 27% | 55 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 123 | 262 | 25 | 9 | 280 | 79 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 55 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 291 | 306 | 597 | 102 | 265 | 25 | 9 | 280 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 119 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 165 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 292 | 309 | 601 | 104 | 266 | 25 | 9 | 280 | 86 | -16 | +0 | -7 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2862 | 2511 | 560 | 112 | 12 | 70 | 256 | 730 | 74 | 22 | 12 | 223 | 313 | 361 | 674 | 138 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +8 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 127 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 58 | 166 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 223 | 313 | 361 | 675 | 139 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -15 | +1 | -4 | -12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 308 PAwOBA .323 → .270 (−53)K% 18.8% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .323 → .270; ISO .130 → .105; BABIP .254 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 464 PAwOBA .356 → .282 (−75)K% 25.4% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.43% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.64% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.82% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.978 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×0.978 | 7.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×0.978 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.62% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .356 → .282; ISO .222 → .164; BABIP .316 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 410 PAwOBA .364 → .313 (−52)K% 22.2% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.20% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.73% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 24.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.41% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .364 → .313; ISO .179 → .150; BABIP .336 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 463 PAwOBA .349 → .295 (−54)K% 14.7% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.69% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.69% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.02% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.58% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.18% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .349 → .295; ISO .156 → .126; BABIP .264 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 470 PAwOBA .366 → .310 (−57)K% 18.3% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.30% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.11% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.41% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.11% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .366 → .310; ISO .168 → .155; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 26 PAwOBA .251 → .213 (−38)K% 30.8% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 6.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 31.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .213; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 187 PAwOBA .368 → .297 (−71)K% 22.5% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.46% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.37% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×0.990 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.990 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×0.990 | 2.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 103, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .368 → .297; ISO .190 → .157; BABIP .324 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 128 PAwOBA .403 → .339 (−64)K% 18.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 26.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.47% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 4.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .403 → .339; ISO .183 → .164; BABIP .372 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .