Jake Holton1B
Sacramento River Cats
Age 28
R/R
5'11" / 242 lbs
AAA
BB -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.1 · 2027
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .301 / .378
PA250
HR8
K%27
BB%8
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
45→45
PWR
60→60
SPD
45→45
EYE
49↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-6M | $-11M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | 2 teams | 315 | 270 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 91 | 14 | 1 | 2 | .233 | .337 | .381 | .718 | .148 | .320 | 29 | 9 | .318 | 102 | +1 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | 2 teams | 496 | 427 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 125 | 17 | 5 | 5 | .230 | .334 | .375 | .709 | .145 | .292 | 25 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -3 | -1 | +0 | -9 | +14 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 463 | 402 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 91 | 14 | 0 | 1 | .224 | .323 | .353 | .676 | .129 | .259 | 20 | 10 | .300 | 88 | -6 | -0 | +0 | -8 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 410 | 368 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 115 | 11 | 6 | 2 | .255 | .325 | .410 | .735 | .155 | .332 | 28 | 7 | .320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | 2 teams | 515 | 466 | 100 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 161 | 6 | 7 | 2 | .215 | .288 | .384 | .672 | .170 | .287 | 31 | 8 | .290 | 80 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -9 | +15 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 51 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .190 | .333 | .214 | .548 | .024 | .381 | 41 | 18 | .252 | 51 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 199 | 175 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .229 | .315 | .383 | .698 | .154 | .293 | 29 | 10 | .304 | 91 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +6 | 0.1 |
| TOT | 28 | MLB | SF | 250 | 217 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .221 | .319 | .350 | .669 | .129 | .313 | 31 | 11 | .294 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | SF | 323 | 283 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .226 | .316 | .371 | .687 | .145 | .279 | 24 | 10 | .310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | SF | 343 | 301 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 84 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .229 | .318 | .379 | .696 | .150 | .278 | 24 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | SF | 342 | 301 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .226 | .313 | .365 | .678 | .140 | .278 | 25 | 10 | .305 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 52% | SF | 332 | 293 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 84 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .307 | .362 | .669 | .140 | .277 | 25 | 10 | .301 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 64% | SF | 308 | 271 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .221 | .308 | .358 | .666 | .137 | .275 | 26 | 10 | .295 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 73% | SF | 268 | 237 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .211 | .297 | .333 | .630 | .122 | .273 | 27 | 10 | .289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -5 | -5 | +8 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4314 | 3794 | 861 | 163 | 16 | 119 | 398 | 1123 | 91 | 24 | 12 | .227 | .315 | .372 | .688 | .145 | .288 | 26 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -44 | +0 | -19 | -77 | +122 | -1.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 572 | 130 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 60 | 169 | 14 | 4 | 2 | .227 | .316 | .372 | .689 | .145 | .288 | 26 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -7 | +0 | -3 | -12 | +18 | -0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 128 | 104 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | .308 | .433 | .490 | .923 | .183 | .372 | 19 | 12 | .410 | 172 | +10 | -1 | — | — | +4 | 1.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 187 | 153 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .261 | .389 | .451 | .840 | .190 | .324 | 22 | 13 | .373 | 144 | +9 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 1.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .217 | .308 | .217 | .525 | .000 | .333 | 31 | 4 | .257 | 55 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 470 | 381 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 71 | 86 | 15 | 5 | 5 | .262 | .397 | .430 | .828 | .168 | .306 | 18 | 15 | .374 | 144 | +23 | -1 | — | — | +13 | 3.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 463 | 379 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 1 | .245 | .380 | .401 | .781 | .156 | .264 | 15 | 15 | .356 | 130 | +16 | -0 | — | — | +13 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 410 | 351 | 98 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 44 | 91 | 11 | 6 | 2 | .279 | .377 | .459 | .836 | .179 | .336 | 22 | 11 | .370 | 142 | +19 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 464 | 405 | 104 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 118 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .257 | .350 | .479 | .829 | .222 | .316 | 25 | 12 | .365 | 138 | +20 | +1 | — | — | +13 | 3.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | 51 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .419 | .510 | .674 | 1.184 | .256 | .421 | 6 | 12 | .514 | 251 | +9 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 1.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jake Holton (OGILVIE) | 28 | 45 | 60 | 45 | 50 | .224/.301/.378 | .155 | .284 | 8 | 2 | 27% | 8% | 93 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
●Jeff Bailey 2007 · AAA |
28 | 44→49 | 53→55 | 45 | 47 | .231/.307/.403 | .172 | .286 | 21 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 101 | +1.8 | .231/.311/.397 | .166 | .281 | 20 | 7 | 24% | 9% | 101 | +1.8 | .234/.317/.391 | .157 | .283 | 18 | 3 | 23% | 8% | 98 | +1.3 |
|
●Tagg Bozied 2007 · AAA |
28 | 46→49 | 52→60 | 44→45 | 44 | .236/.301/.403 | .166 | .287 | 20 | 5 | 25% | 6% | 98 | +1.6 | .228/.291/.398 | .170 | .271 | 21 | 6 | 24% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .247/.309/.435 | .187 | .299 | 22 | 5 | 25% | 7% | 106 | +1.3 |
|
●Robbie Tenerowicz 2023 · AAA |
28 | 45→51 | 50 | 42→45 | 43 | .225/.310/.384 | .159 | .298 | 18 | 5 | 29% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .233/.321/.380 | .147 | .284 | 17 | 4 | 24% | 7% | 102 | +1.8 | .228/.321/.368 | .140 | .274 | 18 | 3 | 23% | 6% | 96 | +1.3 |
|
✕Yermín Mercedes 2021 · AAA |
28 | 47→51 | 53→55 | 49→45 | 44 | .245/.296/.416 | .172 | .288 | 22 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 99 | +1.7 | .238/.294/.377 | .139 | .282 | 18 | 7 | 22% | 7% | 88 | +0.9 | .231/.292/.363 | .132 | .273 | 17 | 6 | 22% | 7% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Taylor Jones 2022 · MLB |
28 | 48→46 | 52→55 | 41→40 | 47 | .244/.309/.412 | .168 | .306 | 20 | 3 | 27% | 8% | 103 | +1.9 | .220/.295/.372 | .152 | .296 | 17 | 6 | 30% | 8% | 88 | +0.9 | .192/.280/.336 | .144 | .261 | 16 | 5 | 31% | 8% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Brock Peterson 2012 · AAA |
28 | 46→52 | 50→55 | 43→40 | 42 | .233/.291/.386 | .153 | .304 | 18 | 3 | 29% | 6% | 89 | +0.9 | .229/.284/.388 | .159 | .300 | 20 | 4 | 29% | 6% | 87 | +0.8 | .217/.277/.356 | .139 | .293 | 17 | 1 | 31% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Jonathan Rodríguez 2018 · AAA |
28 | 48→51 | 49→50 | 43→50 | 46 | .237/.305/.381 | .144 | .316 | 17 | 5 | 30% | 8% | 93 | +1.3 | .228/.304/.385 | .157 | .316 | 19 | 5 | 32% | 9% | 95 | +1.4 | .196/.283/.346 | .151 | .271 | 20 | 3 | 34% | 10% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕David Fry 2023 · AAA |
27 | 44 | 50→55 | 48→45 | 43 | .225/.287/.383 | .158 | .279 | 18 | 4 | 26% | 6% | 87 | +0.8 | .238/.311/.406 | .168 | .293 | 19 | 7 | 25% | 8% | 103 | +1.9 | .237/.320/.414 | .177 | .291 | 21 | 7 | 25% | 9% | 104 | +0.9 |
|
✕Stefan Gartrell 2012 · AAA |
28 | 43→50 | 53→55 | 45 | 40 | .229/.282/.401 | .173 | .290 | 22 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 89 | +1.0 | .223/.279/.383 | .160 | .306 | 20 | 8 | 33% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .214/.274/.365 | .151 | .304 | 20 | 8 | 35% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2014 · AAA |
28 | 39→47 | 54→60 | 48→50 | 41 | .211/.265/.400 | .189 | .263 | 21 | 8 | 29% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .225/.271/.398 | .173 | .262 | 20 | 8 | 22% | 6% | 84 | +0.6 | .240/.284/.434 | .194 | .265 | 25 | 11 | 20% | 6% | 97 | +0.9 |
|
✕Chris Jacobs 2016 · AAA |
27 | 44→41 | 50→55 | 46→40 | 43 | .222/.297/.373 | .151 | .308 | 18 | 3 | 32% | 8% | 89 | +0.9 | .216/.274/.329 | .113 | .319 | 12 | 6 | 34% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .176/.211/.265 | .089 | .278 | 14 | 0 | 41% | 4% | 20 | -0.8 |
|
●Marquez Smith 2013 · AAA |
28 | 48→50 | 49→55 | 46→40 | 42 | .240/.290/.389 | .150 | .299 | 16 | 3 | 25% | 6% | 89 | +1.0 | .240/.308/.395 | .155 | .300 | 16 | 4 | 24% | 8% | 98 | +1.6 | .238/.317/.399 | .161 | .300 | 17 | 3 | 25% | 9% | 101 | +1.3 |
|
✕Nick Gorneault 2007 · AAA |
28 | 47→48 | 51→55 | 48→50 | 42 | .237/.289/.407 | .170 | .309 | 18 | 8 | 29% | 7% | 93 | +1.3 | .219/.275/.364 | .145 | .287 | 16 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 76 | +0.1 | .202/.261/.333 | .131 | .263 | 16 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -0.9 |
|
✕O'Koyea Dickson 2019 · AAA |
29 | 41→46 | 54→55 | 43→45 | 44 | .222/.282/.400 | .178 | .263 | 22 | 6 | 26% | 6% | 89 | +1.0 | .229/.283/.383 | .154 | .265 | 17 | 8 | 20% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .237/.288/.405 | .168 | .254 | 16 | 0 | 14% | 5% | 89 | +0.2 |
|
✕Alex Burg 2016 · AAA |
28 | 44→42 | 50 | 44→40 | 45 | .225/.298/.374 | .150 | .303 | 18 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .209/.270/.346 | .137 | .275 | 16 | 5 | 29% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .172/.224/.285 | .113 | .224 | 12 | 2 | 29% | 5% | 32 | -1.5 |
|
✕Jerad Head 2011 · AAA |
28 | 47→45 | 50→55 | 48→50 | 40 | .238/.290/.400 | .162 | .291 | 17 | 8 | 25% | 5% | 92 | +1.2 | .229/.279/.381 | .152 | .282 | 18 | 7 | 25% | 4% | 83 | +0.6 | .220/.271/.361 | .142 | .268 | 17 | 6 | 24% | 4% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Michael Restovich 2007 · MLB |
28 | 45→49 | 54→55 | 47→30 | 43 | .234/.293/.413 | .179 | .298 | 22 | 4 | 29% | 7% | 97 | +1.5 | .233/.283/.408 | .175 | .306 | 22 | 4 | 30% | 6% | 92 | +1.2 | .232/.281/.393 | .161 | .302 | 19 | 2 | 29% | 6% | 84 | +0.4 |
|
✕David Smith 2008 · AA |
27 | 45→51 | 52→55 | 42→45 | 43 | .235/.288/.402 | .168 | .289 | 20 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 92 | +1.2 | .232/.300/.399 | .167 | .306 | 18 | 5 | 29% | 8% | 96 | +1.5 | .226/.304/.397 | .172 | .307 | 18 | 2 | 30% | 9% | 92 | +0.9 |
|
✕Rob Segedin 2017 · MLB |
28 | 48→49 | 49→50 | 45 | 46 | .242/.306/.396 | .154 | .293 | 17 | 5 | 23% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .231/.283/.377 | .146 | .286 | 16 | 6 | 25% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .205/.249/.313 | .108 | .250 | 13 | 0 | 23% | 5% | 50 | -0.4 |
|
●Prentice Redman 2008 · AAA |
28 | 47→54 | 48→55 | 44→50 | 45 | .234/.294/.376 | .142 | .290 | 15 | 8 | 24% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 | .237/.296/.407 | .170 | .274 | 20 | 9 | 21% | 7% | 97 | +1.5 | .241/.297/.418 | .178 | .271 | 21 | 9 | 20% | 7% | 97 | +1.0 |