Steven Cruz
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'7" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.41
xFIP4.95
SIERA4.11
K%21.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.9%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p9098.2
Whiff%
p4324.3%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p740.289
CT (19%)
FB (57%)
SL-3.9 (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 16 | 3 | 29 | 126 | 26 | 14 | 0 | 14.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.67 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 13 | 2 | 26 | 119 | 33 | 24 | 0 | 18.9% | 25.2% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 2 | 50 | 225 | 80 | 33 | 3 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 4.32 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 46 | 0 | 56 | 257 | 72 | 35 | 4 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 5.14 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 53 | 4 | 62 | 271 | 79 | 41 | 5 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 52 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 54 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 7 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | 16.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 43 | 189 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 25.7% | 11.6% | 4.9% | 6.01 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | KC | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 22.5% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | KC | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | KC | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 20.4% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | KC | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 5.42 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 269 | 11 | 340 | 1487 | 334 | 219 | 31 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 4.13 | 4.20 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 6 | 200 | 876 | 197 | 129 | 18 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 4.13 | 4.20 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.66 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 120 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 77 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 183 | 77 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 77 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.38 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.08 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 159 | +0.70 | 1.58 | 544 | 76 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 27.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 13.2% | 131 | +0.43 | 3.19 | 446 | 74 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.14 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 436 | 72 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 72 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 72 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.74 | 2.55 | 253 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 71 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.22 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 1.9% | .305 | 4.00 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 104 | +0.78 | 2.51 | 520 | 71 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.34 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 3.7% | .293 | 3.46 | 25.9% | 17.2% | 158 | -0.88 | 2.71 | 469 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 71 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.27 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.97 | 2.28 | 186 | 70 |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.25 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 1.0% | .260 | 4.44 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 237 | +1.19 | 3.25 | 376 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 70 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 70 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.36 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .282 | 5.08 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.72 | 1.95 | 523 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.