Steven Cruz

P Kansas City Royals

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 225 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	52	0	57	3.00	3.17	25.4%	10.2%	0.9	K 22.1% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.49
2025	26	MIX2 levels	54	0	53	3.57	3.59	21.9%	8.7%	0.6	K 20.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.11
2026	27	MIX2 levels	64	2	66	4.52	4.74	26.6%	7.4%	-0.2	K 26.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	50	0	53	4.49	4.62	25.9%	8.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBKC	45	0	47	4.66	4.78	25.3%	9.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBKC	36	0	38	4.85	4.98	24.6%	9.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%73

xwOBA vs52

Form4.12 ERA (proj 4.49) · K 22.9% (proj 25.9%) · BB 3.6% (proj 8.8%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsAlan Busenitz (age 27) · Shintaro Fujinami (age 29) · Ryan Brasier (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.49

FIP4.62

K%25.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%17.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	16	3	29	126	26	14	0	19%	1.8	14.0%	13.9%	0.1%	0.0%	3.68	3.67	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	16	3	29	126	26	14	0	19%	1.8	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	0.0%	3.68	2.76	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	13	2	26	119	33	24	0	15%	2.0	18.9%	25.2%	-6.4%	0.0%	3.12	4.70	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	13	2	26	119	33	24	0	15%	2.0	27.7%	20.2%	7.6%	0.0%	3.12	3.33	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	50	225	80	33	3	7%	1.8	26.7%	16.8%	9.9%	2.0%	4.32	4.09	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	50	225	80	33	3	7%	1.8	35.6%	14.7%	20.9%	1.3%	4.32	2.66	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	46	0	56	257	72	35	4	0%	1.2	22.7%	15.0%	7.7%	1.9%	5.14	4.12	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	46	0	56	257	72	35	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	13.6%	14.4%	1.6%	5.14	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	4	62	271	79	41	5	8%	1.2	25.1%	15.5%	9.6%	2.2%	4.04	4.15	+0.3
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	4	62	271	79	41	5	8%	1.2	29.2%	15.1%	14.0%	1.8%	4.04	3.58	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	1.8%	3.00	3.49	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	1.8%	3.00	3.49	+0.7
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.3%	1.7%	3.00	3.17	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	2.9%	3.57	4.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	2.9%	3.57	4.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.3%	3.57	3.59	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	2	66	282	75	21	15	3%	1.0	26.4%	7.3%	19.1%	6.2%	4.52	5.17	-0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	2	66	282	75	21	15	3%	1.0	26.4%	7.3%	19.1%	6.2%	4.52	5.17	-0.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	2	66	282	75	21	15	3%	1.0	26.6%	7.4%	19.1%	5.3%	4.52	4.74	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	6	123	515	122	46	20	5%	1.0	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.9%	3.96	4.36	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	50	0	53	224	58	20	9	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	4.0%	4.49	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	47	0	49	208	53	19	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	4.2%	4.66	4.78	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	38	0	40	170	42	16	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	4.4%	4.85	4.98	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	45	0	47	198	50	18	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	4.2%	4.66	4.78	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	39	15	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	4.4%	4.85	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		199	6	208	874	212	79	35	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	4.0%	4.28	4.41	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	6	200	842	204	76	34	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	4.0%	4.28	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		326	13	399	1735	397	229	43	4%	1.2	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	2.5%	4.01	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	7	200	869	199	115	22	4%	1.2	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	2.5%	4.01	4.21	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 7 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.71 (+0.38)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 7 IPFIP 1.13 → 1.44 (+0.31)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.003	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.13 → 1.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 51 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.49 (+0.15)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.69%	—	×0.860	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×0.900	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.111	×1.100	1.82%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 33 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.59 (+0.83)K% 30.7% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.66%	—	×0.810	24.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.60%	—	×1.100	16.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷0.872	×1.200	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 17 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.14 (+0.57)K% 30.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.860	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×0.900	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.942	×1.100	4.87%

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 56 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.12 (+0.81)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.02%	—	×0.810	22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.62%	—	×1.100	14.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷0.985	×1.200	1.90%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 47 IPFIP 2.64 → 4.09 (+1.45)K% 36.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.02%	—	×0.740	26.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.22%	—	×1.180	16.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.908	×1.300	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Twins · 26 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.70 (+1.39)K% 27.7% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.73%	—	×0.680	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.17%	—	×1.250	25.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	25.9%	8.8%	4.0%	—	4.87	25.0%	15.8%	90	+0.25	—	—	—
Alan Busenitz R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	27	SU	4.37	23.2%	7.5%	4.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	436	75
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	74
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	73
Pedro Báez R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	28.1%	7.5%	3.6%	.229	3.39	24.6%	15.8%	190	-0.24	2.29	356	72
Juan Minaya R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	22.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.318	4.35	21.5%	9.7%	118	+0.45	3.20	446	72
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	477	72
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	381	71
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	70
Andrew Kittredge R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	28	SU	3.66	21.6%	6.6%	2.8%	.336	2.70	28.9%	24.6%	159	-0.96	2.47	691	69
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	69
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	69
Al Alburquerque R 2014 · 3.62 FIP	28	SU	3.62	26.7%	8.5%	3.1%	.267	3.27	21.8%	11.6%	147	-0.35	1.73	391	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	69
Luke Bard R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	28	SU	4.51	21.5%	7.7%	4.1%	.295	5.03	20.1%	12.1%	51	+0.52	2.87	388	69
Justin Sterner R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	27.0%	8.0%	3.8%	.262	4.52	24.5%	17.6%	108	+0.60	3.90	294	68
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	68
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	67
Logan Ondrusek R 2013 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	22.7%	6.4%	3.2%	.287	3.57	22.2%	14.3%	41	-0.17	3.57	409	67
Bryan Shaw R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	28	SU	3.73	25.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.277	3.83	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.10	2.78	835	67
Tyler Bashlor R 2021 · 4.10 FIP	28	SU	4.10	23.7%	10.7%	3.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	253	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	24.6%	9.2%	1.56	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*