Steven Cruz — OGILVIE

Steven Cruz P Kansas City Royals

Age 27 RHP 6'7" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.89

FIP3.95

K%24.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

CT (30%)

FB (55%)

SL-3.9 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	16	3	29	126	26	14	0	19%	1.8	14.0%	13.9%	0.1%	0.0%	3.68	3.67	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	16	3	29	126	26	14	0	19%	1.8	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	0.0%	3.68	2.76	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	13	2	26	119	33	24	0	15%	2.0	18.9%	25.2%	-6.4%	0.0%	3.12	4.70	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	13	2	26	119	33	24	0	15%	2.0	27.7%	20.2%	7.6%	0.0%	3.12	3.33	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	50	225	80	33	3	7%	1.8	26.7%	16.8%	9.9%	2.0%	4.32	4.09	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	50	225	80	33	3	7%	1.8	35.6%	14.7%	20.9%	1.3%	4.32	2.66	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	46	0	56	257	72	35	4	0%	1.2	22.7%	15.0%	7.7%	1.9%	5.14	4.12	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	46	0	56	257	72	35	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	13.6%	14.4%	1.6%	5.14	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	4	62	271	79	41	5	8%	1.2	24.8%	15.5%	9.3%	2.2%	4.04	4.17	+0.3
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	4	62	271	79	41	5	8%	1.2	24.8%	15.5%	9.3%	2.2%	4.04	4.17	+0.3
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	4	62	271	79	41	5	8%	1.2	29.2%	15.1%	14.0%	1.8%	4.04	3.58	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.55	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.55	+0.7
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	57	236	60	24	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.3%	1.7%	3.00	3.17	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	2.9%	3.57	4.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	2.9%	3.57	4.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	53	219	48	19	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.3%	3.57	3.59	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			115	6	120	501	116	46	18	5%	1.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	3.6%	3.84	4.27	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	61	2	63	268	69	21	13	3%	1.0	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	5.6%	4.31	5.00	-0.3
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	61	2	63	268	69	21	13	3%	1.0	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	5.6%	4.31	5.00	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	KC	8	0	7	36	10	3	1	0%	0.9	27.8%	8.3%	19.4%	2.8%	6.43	3.33	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	KC	53	2	56	232	59	18	12	4%	1.1	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	5.2%	4.04	4.77	-0.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	KC	53	2	56	232	59	18	12	4%	1.1	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	5.2%	4.04	4.77	-0.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	22	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	3.1%	3.89	3.95	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	3.1%	3.89	3.95	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	68	290	74	23	14	—	—	25.6%	8.0%	17.7%	4.7%	4.28	4.92	-0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	61	257	74	23	14	—	—	28.9%	9.0%	19.9%	5.3%	4.77	4.72	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	57	0	60	252	60	24	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.6%	14.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.69	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	54	0	57	241	56	24	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	54	0	57	241	57	23	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.6%	14.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.69	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	53	23	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	6	236	992	231	94	36	3%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.9%	3.6%	4.24	4.33	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	5	200	841	196	80	31	3%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.9%	3.6%	4.24	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		323	13	396	1721	388	230	41	4%	1.2	22.6%	13.3%	9.2%	2.4%	3.97	4.19	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	7	200	868	196	116	21	4%	1.2	22.6%	13.3%	9.2%	2.4%	3.97	4.19	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.7%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.77	23.5%	13.7%	117	+0.33	—	—	—
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	80
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	79
Alan Busenitz R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	27	SU	4.37	23.2%	7.5%	4.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	436	78
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	25.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	183	76
Jason Adam R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	24.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.237	2.64	33.1%	24.9%	88	-0.75	2.42	394	75
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	75
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	75
Tyler Bashlor R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	3.7%	.258	4.10	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.78	2.55	253	75
Tyler Kinley R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	27.2%	11.8%	1.9%	.331	4.14	23.5%	11.8%	159	+0.78	1.58	595	74
Juan Minaya R 2018 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	27.0%	11.4%	2.1%	.282	3.82	24.0%	13.2%	131	+0.42	3.20	446	74
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	74
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	73
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	73
Luke Bard R 2018 · 4.64 FIP	27	SU	4.64	22.2%	8.2%	4.3%	.320	4.51	21.5%	13.8%	68	-0.13	2.87	388	73
Kelvin Herrera R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	21.6%	6.9%	3.8%	.290	3.89	21.7%	15.4%	96	-0.33	2.33	297	73
Neftalí Feliz R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	27	SU	3.54	18.2%	5.7%	2.3%	.337	4.91	20.2%	8.4%	191	+1.37	3.54	291	73
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	73
Jimmy Cordero R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SU	3.60	20.8%	7.8%	2.3%	.256	2.84	23.8%	16.4%	65	-0.76	2.59	365	72
Branden Kline R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	20.3%	11.5%	4.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	167	72
José Ramírez R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SU	4.56	21.7%	10.9%	3.5%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	206	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	23.2%	10.1%	1.31	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63