Steven Cruz
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 27
RHP
6'7" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.20
FIP4.28
K%25.8%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.2
Whiff%
p9034.2%
K%
p9029.9%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT (25%)
FB (58%)
SL-3.9 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 16 | 3 | 29 | 126 | 26 | 14 | 0 | 19% | 1.8 | 14.0% | 13.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.67 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 16 | 3 | 29 | 126 | 26 | 14 | 0 | 19% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 2.76 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 13 | 2 | 26 | 119 | 33 | 24 | 0 | 15% | 2.0 | 18.9% | 25.2% | -6.4% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 4.70 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 13 | 2 | 26 | 119 | 33 | 24 | 0 | 15% | 2.0 | 27.7% | 20.2% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 50 | 225 | 80 | 33 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 4.22 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 50 | 225 | 80 | 33 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 35.6% | 14.7% | 20.9% | 1.3% | 4.32 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 46 | 0 | 56 | 257 | 72 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 5.14 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 46 | 0 | 56 | 257 | 72 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 1.6% | 5.14 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 4 | 62 | 271 | 79 | 41 | 5 | 8% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 4 | 62 | 271 | 79 | 41 | 5 | 8% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 1.8% | 4.04 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.56 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 37 | 2 | 38 | 170 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 5% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 6.7% | 5.17 | 5.59 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 69 | 298 | 83 | 31 | 15 | — | — | 27.8% | 10.4% | 17.4% | 4.9% | 4.74 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 62 | 261 | 83 | 31 | 15 | — | — | 31.9% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.28 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 63 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 53 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 60 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 274 | 6 | 288 | 1216 | 295 | 132 | 45 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.47 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 4 | 200 | 845 | 205 | 92 | 31 | 2% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 299 | 13 | 372 | 1623 | 375 | 232 | 38 | 4% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 4.24 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 7 | 200 | 873 | 202 | 125 | 20 | 4% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.90 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 171 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 79 |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 111 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 77 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .331 | 3.99 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 159 | +0.60 | 1.58 | 578 | 76 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 183 | 75 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.48 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 436 | 74 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 28.4% | 12.5% | 4.8% | .264 | 3.41 | 31.8% | 17.2% | 44 | -1.52 | 3.30 | 323 | 73 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.8% | .258 | 3.97 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.94 | 2.59 | 253 | 73 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.27 | 27.0% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .282 | 3.73 | 24.0% | 13.2% | 131 | +0.46 | 3.17 | 446 | 73 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 73 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.41 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .293 | 3.51 | 25.9% | 17.2% | 158 | -0.90 | 2.74 | 469 | 73 |
| Joe Harvey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.13 | 24.9% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.83 | 26.7% | 6.8% | 17 | +0.70 | 2.55 | 197 | 73 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 73 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 72 |
| Gerardo Reyes R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.18 | 29.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .310 | 4.54 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 46 | +0.36 | 3.24 | 371 | 72 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 72 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 72 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.59 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .226 | 4.22 | 18.8% | 1.7% | 68 | -0.37 | 3.20 | 314 | 70 |
| Branden Kline R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.55 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 4.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 167 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 1.35 | 4.70 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |