Luke Bard
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP5.03
SIERA5.20
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.8%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p1013.6%
xwOBA vs
p150.354
SL+2.2
CH-0.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 47 | 15 | 1 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 0.5% | 2.41 | 3.06 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 44 | 0 | 65 | 283 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 15.7% | 11.2% | 0.3% | 3.74 | 3.37 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 41 | 0 | 65 | 285 | 99 | 21 | 5 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 2.76 | 2.87 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 40 | 0 | 60 | 265 | 65 | 21 | 10 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 4.80 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 48 | 4 | 68 | 293 | 66 | 22 | 12 | 21.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 5.43 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 37 | 1 | 51 | 206 | 46 | 16 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.55 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 16 | 6 | 26 | 124 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 6.15 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 20 | — | 20 | 82 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 260 | 11 | 393 | 1692 | 356 | 147 | 48 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 6 | 200 | 861 | 181 | 75 | 24 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Bard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.15 | 315 | 72 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 72 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 70 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 70 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 69 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 69 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 69 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.