Luke Bard — OGILVIE

Luke Bard P Buffalo Bisons

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

SL+2.2

CH-0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	52	213	47	15	1	0%	1.9	16.3%	8.3%	8.0%	0.5%	2.41	3.07	—
2015	24	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	52	213	47	15	1	0%	1.9	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	0.5%	2.41	2.41	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	65	283	57	28	1	0%	1.5	15.7%	11.2%	4.4%	0.3%	3.74	3.38	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	65	283	57	28	1	0%	1.5	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	0.4%	3.74	2.84	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	65	285	99	21	5	0%	1.6	28.7%	8.0%	20.6%	2.1%	2.76	2.87	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	65	285	99	21	5	0%	1.6	34.7%	7.4%	27.4%	1.8%	2.76	2.03	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	60	265	65	21	10	0%	1.5	22.2%	8.2%	13.9%	4.3%	4.80	4.64	-0.1
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	60	265	65	21	10	0%	1.5	24.5%	7.9%	16.6%	3.8%	4.80	4.15	+0.3
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	68	293	66	22	12	8%	1.4	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	4.1%	5.43	4.51	+0.0
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	4	68	293	66	22	12	8%	1.4	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	4.1%	5.43	4.42	+0.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	6	0	5	23	7	0	2	0%	0.9	30.4%	0.0%	30.4%	8.7%	6.75	5.30	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	6	0	5	23	7	0	2	0%	0.9	30.4%	0.0%	30.4%	8.7%	6.75	5.35	-0.0
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	206	46	16	9	3%	1.4	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	4.8%	3.55	5.03	-0.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	51	206	46	16	9	3%	1.4	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	4.4%	3.55	4.54	+0.0
2023	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.9%	6.15	4.78	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.9%	6.15	4.78	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.2%	6.15	4.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	3	81	334	68	23	14	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.44	4.52	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	TOR	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TOR	44	0	46	193	43	19	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.77	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	TOR	38	0	40	169	36	18	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.8%	4.92	5.14	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.77	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.8%	4.92	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	3	81	336	68	23	14	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		136	7	200	825	167	56	34	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		260	11	393	1692	355	145	48	4%	1.5	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.98	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	6	200	861	181	74	25	4%	1.5	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.98	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Bard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.3%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.94	21.8%	11.5%	86	+0.53	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	81
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	81
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	78
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	77
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	77
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	77
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	75
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	75
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	72
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	72
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	71
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	70
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	18.3%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	69
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	69
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	69
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	69
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	68
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.3%	10.0%	1.33	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43