Luke Bard
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p1013.6%
xwOBA vs
p150.354
SL+2.2
CH-0.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 47 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 0.5% | 2.41 | 3.04 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 47 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 22.1% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 2.41 | 2.41 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 65 | 283 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.7% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 3.74 | 3.34 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 65 | 283 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 0.4% | 3.74 | 2.84 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 65 | 285 | 99 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 20.6% | 2.2% | 2.76 | 2.90 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 65 | 285 | 99 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 34.7% | 7.4% | 27.4% | 1.8% | 2.76 | 2.03 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 60 | 265 | 65 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 4.80 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 60 | 265 | 65 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 4 | 68 | 293 | 66 | 22 | 12 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 4.2% | 5.43 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 4 | 68 | 293 | 66 | 22 | 12 | 8% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 5.43 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.4% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 8.7% | 6.75 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.4% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 8.7% | 6.75 | 5.35 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 51 | 206 | 46 | 16 | 9 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 3.55 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 51 | 206 | 46 | 16 | 9 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 3.55 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 16 | 6 | 26 | 124 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 38% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 6.15 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 16 | 6 | 26 | 124 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 38% | 1.6 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 6.15 | 4.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.79 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.15 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 3 | 81 | 336 | 68 | 23 | 14 | 5% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 7 | 200 | 825 | 167 | 56 | 34 | 5% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 260 | 11 | 393 | 1692 | 356 | 147 | 50 | 4% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 6 | 200 | 861 | 181 | 75 | 26 | 4% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Bard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.96 | 21.9% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 81 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 78 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 77 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 75 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 70 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.33 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |