Dilan Mata

C DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 R/R ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	48	.229/.426/.257	0	2	50	—	.158/.319/.184
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBBOS	158	.234/.322/.300	1	2	81	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBBOS	51	.243/.331/.320	0	1	85	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBBOS	143	.245/.333/.329	1	2	88	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%99

Chase%99

Whiff%99

Z-Con%99

BB%84

wOBA50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAlexander Albertus (age 18) · Miguel Rodríguez (age 18) · Alirio Ferrebus (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj PA

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .319 / .298

PA54

HR0

K%19

BB%10

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$51M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$24M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	35	8	1	0	0	10	3	2	2	1	229	426	257	683	29	242	6	21	335	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	38	6	1	0	0	7	4	2	2	1	158	319	184	503	26	163	8	15	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	38	6	1	0	0	7	4	2	2	1	158	319	184	503	26	171	8	15	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	35	8	1	0	0	10	3	2	2	1	229	426	257	683	29	242	6	21	335	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	39	6	1	0	0	7	4	2	2	1	154	319	179	499	26	163	8	15	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	48	39	6	1	0	0	7	4	2	2	1	154	319	179	499	26	163	8	15	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	158	139	33	5	1	1	15	30	3	2	0	234	322	300	622	67	290	19	9	288	81	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	147	129	30	4	1	1	14	28	3	2	1	237	325	311	636	74	292	19	10	293	85	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	295	258	62	9	2	3	29	57	6	5	2	239	328	320	648	81	293	19	10	298	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2030	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	410	359	86	13	2	5	40	79	8	7	2	241	329	329	658	88	294	19	10	302	90	-5	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.2
2031	22	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	492	433	104	16	3	6	47	95	9	8	3	243	330	336	667	94	295	19	10	305	92	-4	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2032	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	520	455	111	17	3	7	50	101	10	9	3	244	331	343	674	99	296	19	10	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	520	455	111	17	3	7	50	101	10	9	3	245	332	345	677	100	296	19	10	309	95	-3	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	520	455	112	17	3	8	50	101	10	9	3	245	332	346	679	101	296	19	10	309	95	-3	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	520	455	112	17	3	8	50	101	10	8	3	245	332	347	679	102	296	19	10	309	95	-3	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	BOS	60%	520	456	111	17	3	7	50	102	9	8	3	244	331	344	675	100	296	20	10	308	94	-3	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2037	28	MLB MLE	BOS	62%	520	456	110	17	3	7	50	103	9	6	3	242	329	339	668	97	295	20	10	305	93	-5	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	BOS	63%	520	456	110	17	3	7	50	104	9	4	2	239	326	333	659	93	293	20	10	301	90	-6	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.3
2039	30	MLB MLE	BOS	63%	520	457	108	16	3	6	49	106	9	3	2	236	322	324	647	88	291	20	9	297	87	-8	-0	-2	+9	+11	1.0
2040	31	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	504	444	102	15	2	5	47	105	8	2	2	232	317	314	632	82	288	21	9	290	83	-10	-0	-3	+9	+11	0.6
2041	32	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	489	433	98	14	2	5	45	104	8	2	1	226	311	302	613	75	285	21	9	283	78	-13	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.3
2042	33	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	473	420	92	13	2	4	43	103	7	1	1	220	304	287	591	67	280	22	9	274	72	-16	-0	-4	+8	+10	-0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	51	45	10	2	0	0	5	10	1	1	0	243	331	320	650	77	300	20	10	299	85	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	143	125	31	5	1	1	14	28	3	2	1	245	333	329	662	84	302	20	10	304	88	-2	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.4
2030	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	222	195	48	8	1	2	21	43	4	4	1	247	335	338	673	90	303	19	9	308	90	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2031	22	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	278	244	60	10	1	3	27	54	5	5	2	249	336	345	681	96	303	19	10	311	92	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2032	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	299	262	66	11	2	4	29	58	6	5	2	250	337	352	688	101	304	19	10	313	94	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2033	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	296	261	66	11	2	4	28	58	5	5	2	251	338	354	692	102	305	20	9	315	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	295	260	65	11	2	4	28	57	5	5	2	252	338	355	693	103	305	19	9	315	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	294	259	65	11	2	4	28	57	5	5	2	252	338	355	693	104	305	19	10	315	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2036	27	MLB CTX	BOS	60%	311	272	69	12	2	4	30	61	6	5	2	250	337	353	690	102	304	20	10	314	94	-2	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.1
2037	28	MLB CTX	BOS	62%	321	281	70	12	2	4	31	64	6	4	2	248	335	348	683	99	303	20	10	311	93	-3	+0	-0	+6	+7	1.0
2038	29	MLB CTX	BOS	63%	327	287	71	12	2	4	31	66	6	3	2	246	332	341	673	95	302	20	9	307	90	-4	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2039	30	MLB CTX	BOS	63%	330	290	71	12	2	4	31	67	6	2	1	242	328	333	661	90	300	20	9	302	87	-5	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	328	289	68	11	1	3	31	68	5	1	1	238	323	323	646	85	297	21	9	296	83	-7	-0	-2	+6	+7	0.4
2041	32	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	318	281	65	10	1	3	29	68	5	1	1	232	317	310	627	78	293	21	9	288	78	-9	-0	-2	+6	+7	0.2
2042	33	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	307	271	60	9	1	2	28	67	5	1	1	226	309	295	604	69	288	22	9	279	72	-10	-0	-3	+5	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4120	3622	885	147	22	46	391	826	73	49	22	244	330	335	665	91	303	20	9	305	89	-55	+1	-9	+74	+89	10.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	139	23	3	7	62	130	12	8	3	243	330	331	661	88	302	20	10	305	89	-9	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7072	6207	1476	222	38	86	676	1404	128	86	35	238	325	327	653	90	292	20	10	299	89	-91	+3	-15	+125	+152	17.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	135	20	3	8	62	129	12	8	3	237	324	325	649	88	291	20	10	299	89	-8	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Omar Narváezlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,298 PA	3.5	2,298	53	0	251	334	374	+41	+15	12.6	12.9
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+4.3	3.6	pk7: 13
#4Bill Rariden'09-'20 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	7	47	232*	319*	351*	+59	+0	11.8	12.1
/162	664	1	9	+11.8	+0.1	2.4	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.3	4,175	51	48	239	322	330	+75	+40	13.3	10.9
/162	664	8	8	+11.9	+6.4	2.1	pk7: 8
#5Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#6Mike Tresh'38-'49 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,637 PA	5.5	3,637	2	19	239*	319*	306*	+65	+0	6.9	6.6
/162	664	0	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dilan Mata (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	232/319/298	66	290	0	1	19%	10%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	47→57	36→45	49→50	50	218/277/294	76	258	2	12	16%	7%	63	-1.4	229/275/301	72	282	3	12	19%	5%	63	-1.4	276/322/383	106	335	4	17	18%	5%	96	+0.8
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	42→51	37→50	51→55	58	197/311/267	70	262	5	9	24%	13%	72	-0.7	215/290/330	115	309	10	14	31%	9%	77	-0.3	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Carlos Pérez 2009 · A	18	47→49	35→55	45	62	215/322/274	59	257	1	8	16%	12%	77	-0.3	215/284/292	77	274	3	6	21%	8%	65	-1.2	249/297/366	117	288	10	4	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Kleyver Salazar 2024 · A	18	40→50	37→50	48→40	52	188/274/261	73	244	3	4	23%	10%	55	-1.9	194/274/283	89	264	8	4	27%	9%	60	-1.6	200/286/298	98	264	10	4	26%	10%	67	-0.6
✕Andres Melendez 2019 · A	18	46	37→50	49→40	48	215/276/292	77	257	4	7	18%	6%	62	-1.4	205/273/296	91	276	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	189/272/303	114	277	10	2	33%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	47→48	37→40	49→45	48	221/290/297	77	273	3	9	20%	7%	70	-0.9	209/283/276	67	264	2	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	230/305/310	79	304	5	8	24%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	43→53	38→50	50→40	55	201/288/280	79	244	5	8	19%	10%	65	-1.2	227/293/354	127	281	14	4	23%	8%	84	+0.1	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Ali Sánchez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	42→40	50	210/283/277	67	260	5	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	215/266/268	53	272	3	6	21%	6%	53	-2.1	247/298/343	95	318	11	1	25%	7%	79	-0.1

Dilan Mata

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps