Juan Duran

OF DSL Nationals

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKWSH	162	.331/.444/.474	2	11	67	—	.209/.312/.288
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBWSH	272	.224/.295/.310	2	4	73	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBWSH	77	.227/.301/.321	1	1	78	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBWSH	172	.231/.305/.332	2	2	83	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%88

K%85

wOBA84

wRC+80

Z-Con%79

Chase%68

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEsmerlyn Valdez (age 18) · Gabriel Gonzalez (age 18) · Yimy Tovar (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 135 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .293 / .307

PA135

HR1

K%23

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	162	133	44	13	0	2	19	23	8	11	5	331	444	474	917	143	382	14	12	409	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	162	139	29	8	0	1	13	28	8	11	5	209	312	288	600	79	241	17	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	162	139	29	8	0	1	13	28	8	11	5	209	312	288	600	79	250	17	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	162	133	44	13	0	2	19	23	8	11	5	331	444	474	917	143	382	14	12	409	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	162	140	29	8	0	1	13	28	8	11	5	207	312	286	598	79	241	17	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	162	140	29	8	0	1	13	28	8	11	5	207	312	286	598	79	241	17	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	272	245	54	11	1	2	20	62	5	4	1	224	295	310	605	86	288	23	7	276	73	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	223	201	45	9	1	2	16	51	4	3	1	228	301	322	623	95	290	23	7	284	78	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	355	318	74	15	2	5	27	80	7	5	2	231	305	334	639	103	292	23	8	290	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	21	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	455	407	95	19	2	7	35	102	10	6	2	234	309	344	653	110	293	22	8	296	86	-7	+0	+0	-3	+10	0.0
2031	22	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	526	470	111	22	3	9	40	118	11	7	2	236	311	352	664	116	294	22	8	300	89	-7	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	573	513	122	24	3	11	44	128	11	8	3	238	313	360	673	121	295	22	8	303	91	-6	+0	+0	-3	+12	0.4
2033	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	604	540	130	26	3	12	47	134	12	8	3	240	314	363	678	124	295	22	8	305	93	-5	+0	+0	-4	+13	0.5
2034	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	622	557	133	27	3	12	48	138	12	8	3	240	315	366	681	126	296	22	8	306	93	-5	+0	+0	-4	+13	0.5
2035	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	631	564	136	27	3	13	49	140	13	8	3	240	315	367	683	127	295	22	8	307	94	-5	+0	+0	-4	+14	0.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	632	566	136	27	3	13	49	142	12	8	3	239	314	365	679	126	295	22	8	306	93	-5	+0	+0	-4	+14	0.5
2037	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	627	561	133	26	3	12	49	142	12	8	3	237	312	360	672	123	294	23	8	303	91	-7	+0	-1	-4	+14	0.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	618	553	130	26	3	11	48	141	12	7	4	235	309	354	663	119	292	23	8	299	89	-8	-0	-1	-4	+13	-0.0
2039	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	607	545	127	25	3	11	46	141	11	7	5	232	305	346	651	114	290	23	8	294	85	-11	-1	-2	-4	+13	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	77	69	15	3	0	1	6	18	2	1	0	227	301	321	622	93	290	23	8	283	78	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	172	153	35	7	1	2	13	39	4	2	1	231	305	332	638	102	291	23	8	290	83	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	247	221	52	11	1	4	19	56	5	3	1	234	309	342	651	109	292	23	8	295	86	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.0
2031	22	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	298	267	63	13	1	5	23	67	6	4	1	236	311	351	662	115	293	22	8	299	89	-4	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	330	294	69	14	1	6	26	74	7	4	2	238	313	358	671	120	294	22	8	303	91	-3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	344	307	75	15	2	7	27	77	7	5	2	239	314	362	676	123	295	22	8	305	93	-3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2034	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	353	316	76	15	2	7	27	79	7	5	2	240	315	364	679	124	295	22	8	306	93	-3	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2035	26	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	357	319	77	16	2	7	28	79	7	5	2	240	315	366	681	126	295	22	8	306	94	-3	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2036	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	351	314	74	15	1	7	27	79	7	5	2	239	314	363	677	124	294	23	8	305	93	-3	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2037	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	344	307	73	15	1	7	27	78	7	4	2	237	312	359	670	121	293	23	8	302	91	-4	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.1
2038	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	330	295	69	14	1	6	26	76	6	4	2	235	309	352	661	118	292	23	8	299	89	-5	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.0
2039	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	320	286	66	13	1	6	25	74	6	4	2	231	305	344	650	113	290	23	8	294	85	-6	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3523	3148	744	151	14	65	274	796	71	46	19	236	312	355	667	119	294	23	8	301	89	-42	+2	-2	-21	+76	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	138	28	3	12	51	147	13	8	4	238	314	358	672	120	296	23	8	301	89	-8	+0	-0	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6770	6055	1429	287	33	120	521	1516	138	96	39	236	311	354	665	118	294	22	8	300	89	-83	+3	-4	-40	+143	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	138	28	3	12	50	146	13	9	4	238	312	358	670	120	296	22	8	300	89	-8	+0	-0	-4	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Jack Rothrock'25-'37 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,719 PA	5.6	3,719	28	75	248*	313*	376*	-15	-14	2.5	4.0
/162	664	5	13	-2.7	-2.5	0.4	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.5	3,657	65	48	237	308	356	-22	+0	3.7	3.5
/162	664	12	9	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Duran (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	222/293/307	85	288	1	2	23%	7%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2022 · A	18	40→44	41→60	48→30	43	194/269/292	98	274	9	7	31%	7%	61	-1.5	193/270/310	117	291	12	5	35%	8%	65	-1.2	207/300/402	195	286	26	2	35%	10%	96	+0.8
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	41→51	42→50	51→45	46	199/266/307	109	243	8	10	22%	7%	63	-1.4	240/301/360	120	292	12	8	21%	5%	88	+0.4	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Yimy Tovar 2024 · A	18	46	39→45	51→55	48	218/287/307	89	276	7	8	23%	8%	70	-0.8	202/282/280	78	263	4	13	23%	9%	63	-1.4	199/276/278	79	257	5	16	23%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Anthony García 2010 · A	18	44→48	37→55	49→45	41	207/266/286	79	287	4	8	28%	6%	57	-1.8	226/296/366	140	282	14	5	24%	7%	88	+0.4	226/292/403	176	286	19	3	27%	6%	92	+0.3
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
●Jorge Bonifacio 2011 · A	18	48→51	37→55	51→45	42	220/280/308	88	318	3	11	30%	7%	68	-1.0	225/271/338	113	308	8	6	28%	5%	71	-0.8	243/310/399	156	318	17	3	28%	8%	99	+0.9
✕Oswald Peraza 2018 · A	18	46→54	35→50	53→60	44	214/285/281	67	280	1	11	22%	6%	64	-1.3	212/274/278	66	288	4	15	26%	6%	59	-1.7	235/294/370	135	296	16	30	26%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2010 · A	18	46→48	39→55	46→30	42	218/278/303	85	312	6	7	31%	7%	65	-1.2	216/254/361	145	265	18	3	26%	4%	71	-0.8	242/283/403	161	284	21	0	23%	4%	90	+0.4
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Aldo Gaxiola 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	49→40	46	200/275/274	74	279	5	9	28%	8%	59	-1.7	199/263/295	96	263	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.7	193/251/309	115	259	14	2	30%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Robert Calaz 2024 · A	18	44→42	42→50	53→50	46	210/288/317	107	285	8	8	28%	8%	74	-0.6	218/284/351	133	327	13	10	35%	7%	80	-0.2	207/271/338	131	322	14	10	38%	7%	69	-0.6
●Jahmai Jones 2016 · A	18	43→51	38→50	50	42	204/262/285	80	276	5	16	27%	6%	55	-1.9	230/286/334	104	297	8	16	24%	6%	76	-0.4	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→45	47→55	51	190/291/259	69	233	5	12	19%	8%	63	-1.4	203/293/290	87	241	8	16	18%	9%	70	-0.9	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Alexander Canario 2018 · A	18	42→36	39→60	48→50	50	198/268/288	90	240	5	14	19%	8%	59	-1.7	209/273/339	130	282	14	10	30%	7%	73	-0.6	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3

Juan Duran

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps