Yimy Tovar
IF Lake Elsinore Storm| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Padres Go… | 195 | .230/.409/.358 | 1 | 14 | 45 | — | .145/.295/.226 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKSD | 186 | .315/.372/.405 | 2 | 5 | 61 | — | .236/.278/.288 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/A/ROKSD | 301 | .259/.349/.386 | 4 | 19 | 68 | — | .222/.288/.330 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBSD | 411 | .225/.284/.318 | 4 | 8 | 70 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBSD | 81 | .226/.286/.329 | 1 | 2 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBSD | 159 | .229/.291/.341 | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | — | 68 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 418 | 474 | 892 | 158 | 348 | 15 | 13 | 394 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 148 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 230 | 409 | 358 | 767 | 128 | 273 | 14 | 18 | 357 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 23 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 409 | 435 | 545 | 980 | 136 | 474 | 13 | 4 | 434 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 163 | 146 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 301 | 362 | 384 | 746 | 82 | 372 | 21 | 8 | 333 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 41 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 293 | 324 | 617 | 108 | 269 | 24 | 10 | 283 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 196 | 167 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 29 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 240 | 339 | 353 | 692 | 114 | 273 | 15 | 13 | 310 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 64 | 55 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 345 | 419 | 527 | 947 | 182 | 391 | 16 | 11 | 403 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 68 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 313 | 305 | 619 | 85 | 241 | 18 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 159 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 145 | 295 | 226 | 522 | 82 | 166 | 18 | 13 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 23 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 364 | 391 | 455 | 846 | 91 | 436 | 17 | 4 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 163 | 151 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 263 | 265 | 527 | 46 | 299 | 29 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 105 | 252 | 32 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 196 | 174 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 39 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 218 | 292 | 322 | 614 | 103 | 253 | 20 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 64 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 259 | 306 | 379 | 686 | 121 | 307 | 22 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 68 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 313 | 305 | 619 | 85 | 255 | 18 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres Gold | — | 68 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 418 | 474 | 892 | 158 | 348 | 15 | 13 | 394 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 159 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 145 | 295 | 226 | 522 | 82 | 177 | 18 | 13 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 148 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 230 | 409 | 358 | 767 | 128 | 273 | 14 | 18 | 357 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 173 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 237 | 279 | 289 | 568 | 52 | 325 | 28 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 186 | 168 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 315 | 372 | 405 | 776 | 89 | 386 | 20 | 8 | 345 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 301 | 270 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 67 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 219 | 285 | 315 | 600 | 96 | 273 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 301 | 259 | 67 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 49 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 259 | 349 | 386 | 735 | 127 | 299 | 16 | 12 | 326 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 68 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 313 | 300 | 613 | 83 | 241 | 18 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 159 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 145 | 295 | 226 | 522 | 82 | 166 | 18 | 13 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 174 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 236 | 279 | 287 | 566 | 52 | 316 | 28 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 301 | 273 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 67 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 216 | 285 | 311 | 596 | 95 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 195 | 159 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 145 | 295 | 226 | 522 | 82 | 166 | 18 | 13 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 174 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 236 | 279 | 287 | 566 | 52 | 316 | 28 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 301 | 273 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 67 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 216 | 285 | 311 | 596 | 95 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 411 | 377 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 86 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 284 | 318 | 602 | 93 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +9 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | SD | 34% | 237 | 216 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 106 | 279 | 21 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | SD | 48% | 329 | 300 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 294 | 347 | 641 | 114 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | SD | 53% | 392 | 357 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 235 | 297 | 355 | 653 | 120 | 282 | 20 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 55% | 426 | 388 | 92 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 87 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 299 | 360 | 659 | 123 | 282 | 20 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 56% | 444 | 405 | 96 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 92 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 237 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 125 | 283 | 21 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 55% | 450 | 410 | 97 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 299 | 359 | 658 | 124 | 282 | 21 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 55% | 447 | 407 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 94 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 234 | 297 | 355 | 652 | 121 | 281 | 21 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 58% | 439 | 400 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 93 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 231 | 294 | 348 | 642 | 117 | 280 | 21 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 60% | 427 | 389 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 291 | 340 | 631 | 112 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +0 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | SD | 34% | 81 | 74 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 286 | 329 | 615 | 103 | 274 | 21 | 7 | 277 | 76 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | SD | 48% | 159 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 291 | 341 | 632 | 112 | 275 | 21 | 7 | 284 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | SD | 53% | 207 | 189 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 294 | 349 | 643 | 118 | 276 | 20 | 7 | 289 | 84 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 55% | 233 | 212 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 296 | 354 | 650 | 122 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 56% | 247 | 224 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 297 | 356 | 653 | 124 | 277 | 21 | 8 | 293 | 87 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 55% | 248 | 225 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 296 | 354 | 649 | 122 | 277 | 21 | 8 | 291 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 55% | 244 | 222 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 294 | 349 | 643 | 119 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 288 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 58% | 254 | 231 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 291 | 343 | 634 | 115 | 274 | 21 | 7 | 285 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 60% | 257 | 234 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 287 | 335 | 622 | 111 | 272 | 21 | 7 | 280 | 78 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1930 | 1757 | 402 | 75 | 9 | 38 | 143 | 402 | 15 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 292 | 347 | 639 | 118 | 275 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 79 | -39 | +3 | -2 | +0 | +42 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 135 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 135 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 228 | 291 | 346 | 638 | 118 | 273 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 79 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4527 | 4103 | 937 | 181 | 29 | 72 | 347 | 953 | 37 | 98 | 29 | 228 | 294 | 339 | 634 | 111 | 278 | 21 | 8 | 284 | 79 | -80 | +4 | -4 | +0 | +82 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 134 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 137 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 228 | 293 | 336 | 630 | 109 | 278 | 21 | 8 | 284 | 79 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 196 PAwOBA .307 → .264 (−44)K% 14.8% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .307 → .264; ISO .114 → .099; BABIP .273 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Padres · 64 PAwOBA .406 → .305 (−101)K% 15.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 23.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .406 → .305; ISO .182 → .134; BABIP .391 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 41 PAwOBA .275 → .228 (−47)K% 24.4% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .275 → .228; ISO .108 → .085; BABIP .269 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Padres · 163 PAwOBA .330 → .243 (−87)K% 20.9% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.86% | ÷1.023 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.14% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 26.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.045 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.38% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .330 → .243; ISO .082 → .057; BABIP .372 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 23 PAwOBA .422 → .359 (−63)K% 13.0% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 3.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 30.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 12.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .422 → .359; ISO .136 → .105; BABIP .474 → .436. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 195 PAwOBA .353 → .234 (−119)K% 14.4% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.36% | ÷0.952 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.46% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.62% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 10.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.072 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.096 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.909 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.43% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .353 → .234; ISO .128 → .074; BABIP .273 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 68 PAwOBA .390 → .269 (−121)K% 14.7% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷0.971 | ×0.680 | ×1.005 | ×1.022 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.926 | ×0.600 | ×1.005 | ×1.022 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.600 | ×1.005 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.083 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.89% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 94, 2B 85, 3B 100, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .390 → .269; ISO .158 → .085; BABIP .348 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).