Jose Bernardo Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAASaraperos de … | 117 | .291/.342/.388 | 1 | 1 | 89 | — | .288/.333/.385 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAASaraperos de … | 148 | .311/.340/.437 | 2 | 1 | 82 | — | .292/.312/.401 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAASaraperos de … | 96 | .291/.330/.395 | 1 | 0 | 68 | — | .264/.297/.356 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 158 | 162 | 320 | 27 | 167 | 18 | 2 | 140 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 76 | 71 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 338 | 373 | 380 | 754 | 42 | 407 | 16 | 5 | 337 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 104 | 95 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 297 | 274 | 571 | 21 | 308 | 16 | 6 | 256 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 341 | 307 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 283 | 323 | 329 | 652 | 46 | 323 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 213 | 188 | 62 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 330 | 370 | 372 | 742 | 43 | 392 | 15 | 5 | 317 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 243 | 212 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 259 | 323 | 321 | 644 | 61 | 302 | 14 | 8 | 282 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 117 | 103 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 342 | 388 | 731 | 97 | 322 | 11 | 5 | 312 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 148 | 135 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 311 | 340 | 437 | 777 | 126 | 354 | 14 | 3 | 329 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 96 | 86 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 291 | 330 | 395 | 725 | 105 | 348 | 18 | 4 | 308 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 158 | 162 | 320 | 27 | 159 | 20 | 2 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 76 | 72 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 319 | 347 | 361 | 708 | 42 | 385 | 18 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 104 | 97 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 277 | 268 | 545 | 21 | 299 | 20 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 341 | 313 | 88 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 281 | 308 | 323 | 630 | 42 | 317 | 15 | 3 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 213 | 190 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 332 | 365 | 374 | 739 | 42 | 379 | 19 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 243 | 218 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 275 | 319 | 335 | 654 | 60 | 305 | 16 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 117 | 104 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 288 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 96 | 313 | 14 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 148 | 137 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 292 | 312 | 401 | 714 | 109 | 325 | 18 | 2 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 96 | 87 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 264 | 297 | 356 | 653 | 92 | 313 | 22 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 158 | 162 | 320 | 27 | 172 | 20 | 2 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 158 | 162 | 320 | 27 | 167 | 18 | 2 | 140 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 76 | 72 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 319 | 347 | 361 | 708 | 42 | 397 | 18 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 76 | 71 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 338 | 373 | 380 | 754 | 42 | 407 | 16 | 5 | 337 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 104 | 97 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 277 | 268 | 545 | 21 | 316 | 20 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 104 | 95 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 297 | 274 | 571 | 21 | 308 | 16 | 6 | 256 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 341 | 313 | 88 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 281 | 308 | 323 | 630 | 42 | 335 | 15 | 3 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 341 | 307 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 283 | 323 | 329 | 652 | 46 | 323 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 213 | 190 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 332 | 365 | 374 | 739 | 42 | 414 | 19 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 213 | 188 | 62 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 330 | 370 | 372 | 742 | 43 | 392 | 15 | 5 | 317 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 243 | 218 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 275 | 319 | 335 | 654 | 60 | 328 | 16 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 243 | 212 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 259 | 323 | 321 | 644 | 61 | 302 | 14 | 8 | 282 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 117 | 104 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 288 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 96 | 330 | 14 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 117 | 103 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 342 | 388 | 731 | 97 | 322 | 11 | 5 | 312 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 148 | 137 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 292 | 312 | 401 | 714 | 109 | 349 | 18 | 2 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 148 | 135 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 311 | 340 | 437 | 777 | 126 | 354 | 14 | 3 | 329 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 96 | 87 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 264 | 297 | 356 | 653 | 92 | 333 | 22 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 96 | 86 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 291 | 330 | 395 | 725 | 105 | 348 | 18 | 4 | 308 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 40 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 128 | 158 | 154 | 312 | 26 | 159 | 20 | 2 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 76 | 73 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 315 | 347 | 356 | 703 | 41 | 385 | 18 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 104 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 242 | 277 | 263 | 540 | 20 | 299 | 20 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 341 | 326 | 88 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 270 | 308 | 310 | 618 | 40 | 317 | 15 | 3 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 213 | 201 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 313 | 365 | 353 | 718 | 40 | 379 | 19 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 243 | 227 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 264 | 319 | 322 | 641 | 57 | 305 | 16 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 117 | 109 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 333 | 367 | 700 | 92 | 313 | 14 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 148 | 143 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 312 | 385 | 697 | 105 | 325 | 18 | 2 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 96 | 92 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 250 | 297 | 337 | 634 | 87 | 313 | 22 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1378 | 1255 | 356 | 38 | 10 | 5 | 51 | 238 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 284 | 316 | 342 | 658 | 58 | 344 | 17 | 4 | 275 | 72 | -45 | -4 | +0 | +5 | +30 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 168 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 112 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 284 | 316 | 341 | 657 | 57 | 344 | 17 | 4 | 275 | 72 | -21 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 96 PAwOBA .303 → .269 (−34)K% 17.7% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.71% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.17% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.067 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 23.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 7.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.093 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.92% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 113, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .303 → .269; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .348 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 148 PAwOBA .320 → .290 (−30)K% 14.2% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.19% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.70% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 25.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.154 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.059 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.966 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.28% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 112, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .320 → .290; ISO .126 → .100; BABIP .354 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 117 PAwOBA .307 → .300 (−7)K% 11.1% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷0.903 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.948 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.099 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.72% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 98, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .307 → .300; ISO .097 → .093; BABIP .322 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 243 PAwOBA .278 → .273 (−5)K% 14.0% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.99% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.82% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.40% | ÷0.978 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 27.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.38% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .278 → .273; ISO .061 → .054; BABIP .302 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 213 PAwOBA .312 → .307 (−5)K% 15.0% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.02% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.16% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.26% | ÷1.057 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 34.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.129 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 111, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 93, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .307; ISO .043 → .042; BABIP .392 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 341 PAwOBA .277 → .268 (−9)K% 11.7% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.73% | ÷0.928 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.69% | ÷1.136 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.09% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 27.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 3.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 107, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 86, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .277 → .268; ISO .046 → .043; BABIP .323 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 104 PAwOBA .250 → .232 (−18)K% 16.3% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.35% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.77% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.21% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 27.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 2.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .250 → .232; ISO .021 → .019; BABIP .308 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 76 PAwOBA .328 → .301 (−27)K% 15.8% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.030 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.057 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.29% | ÷1.073 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 35.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.118 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 115, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 106, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .301; ISO .042 → .037; BABIP .407 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).