Cutter Dykstra
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 25 | AAWSH | 411 | .274/.355/.391 | 6 | 10 | 81 | — | .253/.310/.347 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 468 | .229/.325/.307 | 6 | 8 | 56 | — | .211/.282/.274 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAWSH | 86 | .297/.381/.365 | 0 | 1 | 82 | — | .273/.333/.338 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 198 | 170 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 271 | 374 | 412 | 786 | 141 | 320 | 19 | 13 | 356 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 113 | 99 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 310 | 303 | 613 | 91 | 282 | 24 | 11 | 285 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 239 | 209 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 50 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 244 | 333 | 349 | 683 | 105 | 297 | 21 | 11 | 311 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 420 | 353 | 110 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 72 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 312 | 416 | 411 | 827 | 99 | 380 | 17 | 13 | 374 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 334 | 306 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 82 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 212 | 267 | 265 | 532 | 52 | 283 | 25 | 6 | 243 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 492 | 436 | 127 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 83 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 291 | 368 | 408 | 776 | 117 | 344 | 17 | 9 | 349 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 361 | 102 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 72 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 283 | 415 | 388 | 803 | 105 | 340 | 16 | 17 | 368 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 411 | 358 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 82 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 274 | 355 | 391 | 746 | 117 | 332 | 20 | 10 | 331 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 190 | 157 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 185 | 323 | 210 | 533 | 25 | 264 | 26 | 16 | 264 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 278 | 250 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 67 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 256 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 112 | 328 | 24 | 9 | 312 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 86 | 74 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 297 | 381 | 365 | 746 | 68 | 423 | 26 | 12 | 334 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 198 | 180 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 211 | 283 | 317 | 599 | 106 | 268 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 113 | 103 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 184 | 257 | 262 | 519 | 78 | 274 | 33 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 239 | 220 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 72 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 186 | 245 | 268 | 513 | 82 | 248 | 30 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 420 | 375 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 100 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 339 | 349 | 688 | 83 | 348 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 334 | 313 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 219 | 224 | 442 | 45 | 272 | 36 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 492 | 450 | 111 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 115 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 247 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 87 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 390 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 110 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 231 | 323 | 315 | 638 | 85 | 305 | 25 | 11 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 411 | 372 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 105 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 253 | 310 | 347 | 657 | 94 | 320 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 190 | 165 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 170 | 275 | 194 | 469 | 24 | 253 | 31 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 278 | 259 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 239 | 286 | 328 | 614 | 89 | 324 | 29 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 86 | 77 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 338 | 671 | 65 | 407 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 198 | 180 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 211 | 283 | 317 | 599 | 106 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 198 | 170 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 271 | 374 | 412 | 786 | 141 | 320 | 19 | 13 | 356 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 322 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 109 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 183 | 249 | 255 | 503 | 71 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 352 | 308 | 72 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 77 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 234 | 326 | 334 | 660 | 101 | 292 | 22 | 11 | 302 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 420 | 375 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 100 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 339 | 349 | 688 | 83 | 354 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 420 | 353 | 110 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 72 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 312 | 416 | 411 | 827 | 99 | 380 | 17 | 13 | 374 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 334 | 313 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 219 | 224 | 442 | 45 | 282 | 36 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 334 | 306 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 82 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 212 | 267 | 265 | 532 | 52 | 283 | 25 | 6 | 243 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 492 | 450 | 111 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 115 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 247 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 87 | 318 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 492 | 436 | 127 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 83 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 291 | 368 | 408 | 776 | 117 | 344 | 17 | 9 | 349 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 390 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 110 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 231 | 323 | 315 | 638 | 85 | 308 | 25 | 11 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 361 | 102 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 72 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 283 | 415 | 388 | 803 | 105 | 340 | 16 | 17 | 368 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 411 | 372 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 105 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 253 | 310 | 347 | 657 | 94 | 331 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 411 | 358 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 82 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 274 | 355 | 391 | 746 | 117 | 332 | 20 | 10 | 331 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 424 | 91 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 138 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 215 | 284 | 278 | 562 | 64 | 304 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 407 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 117 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 229 | 325 | 307 | 632 | 79 | 304 | 25 | 12 | 293 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 86 | 77 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 338 | 671 | 65 | 420 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 86 | 74 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 297 | 381 | 365 | 746 | 68 | 423 | 26 | 12 | 334 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 198 | 178 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 213 | 283 | 320 | 603 | 107 | 268 | 27 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 321 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 109 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 184 | 249 | 255 | 504 | 72 | 256 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 420 | 376 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 100 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 339 | 348 | 687 | 82 | 348 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 334 | 315 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 178 | 219 | 222 | 441 | 44 | 272 | 36 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 492 | 450 | 111 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 115 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 247 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 87 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 390 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 110 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 231 | 323 | 315 | 638 | 85 | 305 | 25 | 11 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 411 | 377 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 105 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 249 | 310 | 342 | 652 | 93 | 320 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 424 | 91 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 138 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 215 | 284 | 278 | 562 | 64 | 295 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 86 | 79 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 333 | 329 | 662 | 63 | 407 | 31 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3207 | 2903 | 660 | 102 | 14 | 32 | 237 | 877 | 37 | 128 | 43 | 227 | 294 | 305 | 599 | 78 | 312 | 27 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -132 | +8 | +0 | +11 | +69 | -4.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 134 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 178 | 7 | 26 | 9 | 228 | 293 | 304 | 598 | 77 | 314 | 27 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -27 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 86 PAwOBA .326 → .290 (−37)K% 25.6% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.58% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 33.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .326 → .290; ISO .068 → .062; BABIP .423 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 278 PAwOBA .305 → .270 (−35)K% 24.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.10% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 26.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .305 → .270; ISO .112 → .091; BABIP .328 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 190 PAwOBA .256 → .223 (−33)K% 26.3% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.26% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×1.018 | 24.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.018 | 0.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.68% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .256 → .223; ISO .025 → .019; BABIP .264 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 411 PAwOBA .328 → .288 (−40)K% 20.0% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.95% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.72% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 25.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .328 → .288; ISO .117 → .096; BABIP .332 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 446 PAwOBA .362 → .288 (−73)K% 16.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.14% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.04% | ÷0.991 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.91% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .362 → .288; ISO .105 → .091; BABIP .340 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AHagerstown Suns · 492 PAwOBA .342 → .279 (−63)K% 16.9% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.87% | ÷0.970 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷0.960 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.78% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 24.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.93% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .342 → .279; ISO .117 → .087; BABIP .344 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Potomac Nationals · 334 PAwOBA .239 → .194 (−44)K% 24.6% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.55% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.29% | ÷0.973 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 22.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.91% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.045 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.39% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .239 → .194; ISO .052 → .041; BABIP .283 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 420 PAwOBA .364 → .304 (−60)K% 17.1% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.86% | ÷1.139 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.03% | ÷1.070 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 29.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.56% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.78% | ÷1.058 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷0.904 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .364 → .304; ISO .099 → .090; BABIP .380 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).