Esterlin Casanova

SS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 R/R ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	191	.199/.384/.301	3	7	34	—	.120/.268/.165
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBBOS	301	.210/.295/.290	3	5	69	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBBOS	84	.221/.306/.313	1	1	74	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBBOS	181	.225/.310/.326	2	3	79	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%86

Z-Con%55

K%52

Chase%50

ISO42

wOBA41

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsEddys Leonard (age 18) · Tyler Rodriguez (age 18) · Jesús Báez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 161 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .292 / .287

PA161

HR1

K%27

BB%10

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	146	29	6	0	3	41	40	3	7	2	199	384	301	686	103	250	21	21	329	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	158	19	4	0	1	29	49	3	7	2	120	268	165	433	44	162	26	15	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	158	19	4	0	1	29	49	3	7	2	120	268	165	433	44	165	26	15	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	146	29	6	0	3	41	40	3	7	2	199	384	301	686	103	250	21	21	329	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	157	19	4	0	1	29	49	3	7	2	121	268	166	434	45	162	26	15	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	191	157	19	4	0	1	29	49	3	7	2	121	268	166	434	45	162	26	15	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	301	266	57	10	2	3	29	80	3	5	1	210	295	290	584	80	286	27	10	270	69	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	245	216	46	8	1	3	24	64	3	4	1	215	300	304	605	90	288	26	10	278	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	373	329	71	12	2	5	36	96	5	6	2	219	305	317	622	99	290	26	10	285	79	-9	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2030	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	468	414	93	16	3	8	45	120	6	8	3	222	308	329	637	106	291	26	10	290	83	-10	+0	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2031	22	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	536	472	107	19	3	10	52	135	7	9	3	225	311	339	649	113	292	25	10	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2032	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	581	512	116	20	3	11	56	146	8	10	4	228	313	347	660	119	293	25	10	299	88	-8	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.1
2033	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	611	539	123	21	4	12	59	153	8	10	4	229	314	351	665	121	294	25	10	301	90	-7	+0	+0	+7	+13	1.3
2034	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	625	552	127	22	4	13	60	156	8	10	4	230	315	353	668	123	294	25	10	302	91	-7	+0	+0	+7	+14	1.4
2035	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	633	559	128	22	4	13	61	158	8	10	4	230	315	355	670	125	294	25	10	303	91	-7	+0	+0	+7	+14	1.5
2036	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	633	559	128	22	4	13	61	159	8	10	4	229	314	353	667	123	293	25	10	302	90	-7	+0	+0	+7	+14	1.4
2037	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	629	555	126	22	3	13	61	160	8	10	5	228	312	348	660	121	293	25	10	299	88	-9	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.1
2038	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	619	548	123	21	3	12	59	159	7	9	5	225	309	342	651	117	292	26	10	295	86	-10	-0	-1	+7	+13	0.8
2039	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	609	539	119	20	3	11	58	158	7	9	6	222	306	335	640	112	290	26	10	291	83	-12	-1	-2	+7	+13	0.5
2040	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	594	526	115	20	3	10	56	157	7	8	9	218	301	325	626	107	287	26	9	285	79	-15	-2	-3	+6	+13	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	84	75	16	3	0	1	8	22	1	1	0	221	306	313	619	92	297	26	10	284	74	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	181	160	36	7	1	2	17	47	2	3	1	225	310	326	636	101	299	26	9	290	79	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	254	225	51	10	1	4	24	65	3	4	2	229	314	337	651	109	300	26	9	296	83	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	22	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	303	267	62	12	2	5	29	77	4	5	2	232	316	347	663	115	301	25	10	301	86	-5	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2032	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	335	296	69	13	2	6	32	84	4	6	2	234	318	355	673	121	302	25	10	305	88	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	348	307	73	14	2	7	33	87	5	6	2	236	320	359	679	123	303	25	9	307	90	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2034	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	354	312	74	14	2	7	34	89	5	6	2	236	320	362	682	125	304	25	10	308	91	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2035	26	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	358	316	74	14	2	7	34	90	5	6	2	236	320	363	684	127	303	25	9	308	91	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2036	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	351	310	73	14	2	7	34	88	4	6	2	235	319	361	680	125	303	25	10	307	90	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2037	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	345	305	71	13	2	7	33	88	4	5	3	234	317	356	674	123	302	26	10	305	88	-5	-0	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2038	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	331	292	68	13	2	6	32	85	4	5	3	231	315	350	665	119	301	26	10	301	86	-5	-0	-1	+4	+7	0.4
2039	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	321	283	64	12	1	6	31	83	4	5	3	228	311	343	654	114	299	26	10	297	83	-6	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	310	275	61	11	1	5	29	82	3	4	5	224	307	333	640	109	296	26	9	291	79	-8	-1	-1	+3	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3875	3423	792	150	20	70	370	987	48	62	29	231	315	348	663	117	302	25	10	302	84	-62	+1	-4	+42	+84	6.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	133	25	3	12	62	166	8	10	5	232	315	348	664	117	302	26	10	302	84	-10	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	7508	6620	1470	254	41	136	733	1913	95	123	57	222	309	334	643	112	289	25	10	293	84	-124	+1	-7	+78	+159	11.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	128	22	4	12	63	166	8	11	5	223	309	339	647	115	291	26	10	293	84	-11	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.1	4,037	75	64	226	307	341	+43	+24	8.9	7.7
/162	664	12	11	+7.1	+3.9	1.5	pk7: 7
#6Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esterlin Casanova (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	208/292/287	79	286	1	3	27%	10%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Jesús Báez 2023 · A	18	37→41	41→55	44→45	47	183/257/274	91	240	9	9	26%	8%	52	-2.2	199/262/315	116	251	12	9	25%	7%	63	-1.3	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	42→51	37→50	51→55	58	197/311/267	70	262	5	9	24%	13%	72	-0.7	215/290/330	115	309	10	14	31%	9%	77	-0.3	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	44→50	51	186/280/245	59	267	2	10	28%	10%	55	-2.0	186/259/249	63	277	2	15	31%	8%	47	-2.6	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Aldo Gaxiola 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	49→40	46	200/275/274	74	279	5	9	28%	8%	59	-1.7	199/263/295	96	263	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.7	193/251/309	115	259	14	2	30%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	43→50	38→50	51→65	51	204/279/286	82	265	5	10	24%	9%	62	-1.4	201/264/285	84	268	5	34	25%	7%	56	-1.9	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→45	47→55	51	190/291/259	69	233	5	12	19%	8%	63	-1.4	203/293/290	87	241	8	16	18%	9%	70	-0.9	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	40→42	37→55	48→50	46	191/261/271	79	260	3	5	26%	8%	52	-2.2	197/244/318	121	277	11	5	32%	5%	56	-1.9	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	41→44	38→50	47→50	54	193/285/279	86	256	5	8	25%	11%	63	-1.3	188/262/304	116	277	10	9	34%	8%	61	-1.5	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Kleyver Salazar 2024 · A	18	40→50	37→50	48→40	52	188/274/261	73	244	3	4	23%	10%	55	-1.9	194/274/283	89	264	8	4	27%	9%	60	-1.6	200/286/298	98	264	10	4	26%	10%	67	-0.6

Esterlin Casanova

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps