Ariel Roque

OF DSL Orioles Orange

Age 18 L/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	192	.227/.383/.360	1	8	37	—	.138/.271/.208
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	302	.198/.277/.284	2	7	61	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	85	.203/.284/.299	1	2	67	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	181	.208/.289/.313	2	5	72	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed66

ISO58

BB%52

wOBA47

wRC+44

Chase%30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJuan Villavicencio (age 18) · Angel Guzman (age 18) · Alberto Rodriguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 162 proj PA

wRC+61

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .275 / .282

PA162

HR1

K%31

BB%8

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	150	34	11	3	1	30	57	8	8	4	227	383	360	743	133	347	30	16	339	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	159	22	7	2	0	21	70	8	8	4	138	271	208	479	69	219	36	11	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	159	22	7	2	0	21	70	8	8	4	138	271	208	479	69	239	36	11	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	150	34	11	3	1	30	57	8	8	4	227	383	360	743	133	347	30	16	339	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	161	22	7	2	0	21	70	8	8	4	137	271	205	476	68	219	36	11	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	192	161	22	7	2	0	21	70	8	8	4	137	271	205	476	68	219	36	11	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	302	269	53	11	3	2	25	92	5	7	2	198	277	284	561	86	288	30	8	258	61	-14	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	246	220	44	9	2	2	20	74	4	7	2	203	284	299	583	96	290	30	8	267	67	-10	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	374	333	70	14	4	5	31	110	7	11	3	208	289	313	602	105	292	29	8	275	72	-12	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.6
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	469	418	89	18	4	7	39	136	9	14	4	212	293	325	618	113	293	29	8	281	76	-13	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.5
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	536	476	103	20	5	9	45	153	10	16	5	216	297	335	631	119	294	29	8	286	80	-13	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.3
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	581	516	113	22	5	11	49	163	11	17	6	219	299	344	643	125	295	28	8	291	83	-12	+1	+0	-3	+13	-0.2
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	611	544	119	23	5	12	51	172	11	18	6	220	301	348	648	128	296	28	8	293	84	-11	+1	+0	-4	+13	-0.1
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	625	556	123	24	6	12	53	175	11	18	6	221	301	351	652	130	296	28	8	294	85	-11	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	633	564	125	24	6	13	53	178	11	18	6	221	301	352	654	132	295	28	8	295	86	-11	+1	+0	-4	+14	0.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	633	563	123	24	5	13	54	179	11	18	6	220	300	350	650	130	295	28	9	293	85	-12	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	629	560	122	24	5	12	53	179	11	17	6	218	298	345	643	127	294	28	8	291	83	-13	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	85	76	16	3	1	1	7	25	2	2	1	203	284	299	583	96	290	29	8	267	67	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	181	161	34	7	2	2	15	53	3	5	2	208	289	313	602	105	292	29	8	275	72	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	254	226	48	10	2	4	21	73	5	7	2	212	293	325	618	113	293	29	8	281	76	-7	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	303	269	58	11	3	5	25	86	6	9	3	216	297	335	631	119	294	28	8	286	80	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	335	298	65	13	3	6	28	94	6	10	3	219	299	344	643	125	295	28	8	291	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	348	310	68	13	3	7	29	98	6	10	3	220	301	348	648	128	296	28	8	293	84	-7	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	354	315	70	14	3	7	30	99	6	10	3	221	301	351	652	130	296	28	8	294	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	358	319	70	14	3	7	30	100	6	10	3	221	301	352	654	132	295	28	8	295	86	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	351	312	68	13	3	7	30	99	6	10	3	220	300	350	650	130	295	28	9	293	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	345	307	67	13	3	7	29	98	6	9	3	218	298	345	643	127	294	28	8	291	83	-7	+1	-0	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2914	2593	564	111	26	53	244	825	52	82	26	218	298	342	639	124	295	28	8	289	79	-63	+6	-0	-17	+63	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	126	25	6	12	54	184	12	18	6	218	298	344	642	126	295	28	8	289	79	-14	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5691	5054	1082	215	51	97	482	1638	107	166	55	214	296	334	631	120	294	29	8	285	79	-126	+11	-1	-33	+119	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	124	25	6	11	55	187	12	19	6	215	296	336	632	121	296	29	8	285	79	-15	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.6	3,078	54	87	217	295	340	-18	+0	0.3	0.7
/162	664	12	19	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Roque (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	196/275/282	86	288	1	4	31%	8%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2019 · A	18	38→48	37→50	51→50	46	184/251/255	71	245	5	16	26%	8%	45	-2.7	213/271/308	95	288	7	14	27%	7%	64	-1.3	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Luis Liberato 2015 · A	19	36→46	37→50	52→50	44	176/243/245	69	250	4	14	30%	8%	39	-3.1	199/256/296	97	299	6	9	33%	7%	55	-1.9	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Anthony Huezo 2024 · A	18	43→36	39→55	50→60	46	203/278/285	82	291	6	7	30%	9%	62	-1.4	177/252/293	116	322	12	17	45%	7%	55	-1.9	169/246/315	146	284	17	26	44%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Manuel Pena 2022 · A	18	38→48	38→50	50	45	187/249/259	72	249	5	15	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/254/287	83	304	5	9	32%	6%	53	-2.1	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4
✕Franchy Cordero 2013 · A	18	41→51	35→55	53→50	45	191/263/257	66	293	2	12	33%	9%	50	-2.3	201/249/273	72	312	4	13	35%	5%	47	-2.5	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
✕Joseph Tailor 2024 · A	18	40	36→45	53→50	39	191/248/254	63	287	4	14	33%	6%	43	-2.8	179/264/266	87	264	6	13	33%	6%	54	-2.0	141/246/232	90	206	6	17	32%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	43→53	41→50	54→60	45	205/273/309	104	282	7	12	28%	8%	65	-1.2	211/272/326	115	344	10	13	38%	7%	69	-0.9	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2011 · A	18	38	36→55	55→50	43	179/247/257	78	256	2	8	29%	7%	44	-2.8	172/228/254	82	228	5	8	26%	6%	36	-3.4	193/219/314	122	250	12	8	28%	3%	42	-0.9
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	41→51	36→50	51→45	46	194/262/269	75	267	2	10	27%	8%	52	-2.2	233/298/320	87	326	5	6	27%	8%	77	-0.3	234/304/323	89	323	6	4	27%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Daniel Lopez 2024 · A	18	43	39→45	50→65	46	205/281/293	89	290	5	10	29%	8%	65	-1.2	192/256/279	87	261	5	17	27%	7%	52	-2.2	182/247/268	86	249	5	28	27%	6%	43	-1.0
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	36→43	37→45	52→60	51	173/263/245	72	222	4	13	23%	9%	49	-2.4	197/285/299	102	255	9	17	24%	9%	69	-0.9	197/288/299	102	260	10	24	26%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Jose Pirela 2024 · A	18	39→35	38→45	48→50	47	185/272/266	81	257	4	10	28%	8%	57	-1.8	168/242/269	101	276	9	9	40%	6%	46	-2.6	157/231/267	110	255	11	11	41%	6%	39	-1.7
✕Anthony Scull 2022 · A	18	42→46	37→45	54→45	38	196/262/273	77	310	4	10	36%	6%	53	-2.1	211/272/297	86	320	5	11	33%	6%	62	-1.4	216/274/313	98	300	9	10	30%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	37	36→45	45	43	177/243/251	73	245	2	8	27%	6%	41	-3.0	213/269/300	87	310	3	8	30%	6%	61	-1.5	239/291/346	107	354	2	8	31%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	35→45	40→45	52→30	43	176/241/269	92	235	7	10	27%	7%	45	-2.7	192/242/291	99	291	9	7	36%	5%	49	-2.4	228/278/346	118	323	12	2	32%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	39	41→45	47→30	46	193/268/298	105	252	7	6	26%	8%	61	-1.5	208/273/298	90	262	5	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	229/293/323	94	294	8	2	24%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	42→50	37→45	46→50	48	196/277/265	70	283	4	9	30%	10%	57	-1.8	206/294/301	95	310	7	14	32%	10%	72	-0.7	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0

Ariel Roque

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps