Jesus Moreno — OGILVIE

Jesus Moreno P DSL Twins

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 172 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%21.4%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	2	0	2	10	2	4	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	2	0	2	10	2	4	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	2	0	2	10	2	4	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.53	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	0	14	74	16	10	3	0%	1.6	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	5.7%	9.64	7.11	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	0	14	74	16	10	3	0%	1.6	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	5.7%	9.64	7.11	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	9	0	14	74	16	10	3	0%	1.6	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	4.1%	9.64	5.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIN	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.9%	7.5%	3.1%	5.11	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.91	4.82	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.91	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.91	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.91	4.44	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		11	0	16	84	13	16	4	0%	1.5	15.3%	19.6%	-4.3%	5.0%	8.27	7.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	0	200	1029	158	202	51	0%	1.5	15.3%	19.6%	-4.3%	5.0%	8.27	7.04	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	21.4%	13.9%	3.1%	—	4.82	22.0%	9.7%	20	-0.29	—	—	—
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	85
Efrailin Ramos R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	18	SU	4.31	21.0%	15.7%	1.8%	.284	3.35	17.0%	6.4%	106	-0.96	3.11	142	85
Alejandro Lugo R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	20.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.265	4.96	16.7%	3.1%	98	+0.05	3.77	159	85
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	84
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	84
Aneudy Duarte R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.4%	13.5%	2.1%	.320	4.79	17.1%	5.4%	34	+0.53	4.26	102	84
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	84
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	84
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	84
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	84
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	84
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	83
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	83
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	82
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	82