Nolan Sparks
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 23
RHP
5'10" / 195 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148139vR 130
ERA5.75
FIP5.75
K%17.6%
BB%17.0%
K-BB%0.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 10 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 2.35 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 10 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.5% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 2.97 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 18 | 12 | 72 | 323 | 78 | 45 | 6 | 67% | 4.0 | 17.9% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 5.07 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 18 | 12 | 72 | 323 | 78 | 45 | 6 | 67% | 4.0 | 24.1% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.85 | 3.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 3 | 48 | 217 | 51 | 21 | 5 | 12% | 2.0 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 46 | 44 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 17.0% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6% | 17.0% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.75 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 110 | 477 | 97 | 65 | 13 | — | — | 20.3% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 5.53 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.6% | 17.0% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 50 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 5.39 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 57 | 42 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 14.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 4.87 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 120 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 14.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 15 | 136 | 601 | 110 | 86 | 16 | 29% | 2.6 | 18.4% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 22 | 200 | 886 | 163 | 126 | 23 | 29% | 2.6 | 18.4% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan Sparks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.75 | 17.6% | 17.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.28 | 19.1% | 4.7% | 127 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 91 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 84 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 83 |
| Jon Keller R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.41 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 1.7% | .265 | 3.84 | 8.9% | -2.9% | 15 | -1.57 | 3.62 | 156 | 81 |
| Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.2% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.16 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 172 | -0.60 | 3.19 | 652 | 80 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 79 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 79 |
| Edwardo Melendez R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 20.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 139 | 78 |
| Jordan Brink R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 78 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 78 |
| Kris Hall R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 78 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 77 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 77 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.84 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 4.1% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 77 |
| Cole Aker R 2025 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 77 |
| Ruben Castillo R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.64 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.33 | 140 | 77 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 77 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 77 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 18.6% | 15.2% | 1.12 | 5.49 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |