Nolan Sparks — OGILVIE

Nolan Sparks P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%17.6%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%-0.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	2.1%	2.35	4.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	2.1%	2.35	4.10	—
2024	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	1.6%	2.35	2.97	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	17.9%	16.4%	1.4%	2.5%	4.85	5.03	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	17.9%	16.4%	1.4%	2.5%	4.85	5.03	—
2025	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	24.1%	13.9%	10.2%	1.9%	4.85	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	3	67	298	79	30	7	7%	1.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.39	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	3	67	298	79	30	7	7%	1.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	24	3	48	217	51	21	5	12%	2.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.3%	5.25	3.61	—
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	17	0	19	81	28	9	2	0%	1.1	34.6%	11.1%	23.5%	2.5%	2.79	2.94	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	5	22	4	4	1	0%	1.0	17.6%	18.0%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.88	5.88	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	73	320	83	34	8	—	—	25.9%	10.6%	15.3%	2.4%	4.64	4.49	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	68	285	53	45	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.9%	5.58	5.48	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	288	56	41	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.3%	5.1%	2.9%	5.34	5.24	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	288	57	40	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.22	5.17	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	284	57	40	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.19	5.18	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	276	55	39	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.1%	5.6%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	59	0	62	263	52	38	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	3.2%	5.34	5.40	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	23	19	4	0%	1.0	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.9%	5.58	5.48	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	37	27	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.3%	5.1%	2.9%	5.34	5.24	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	51	0	54	228	45	32	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.22	5.17	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	54	0	57	241	48	34	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.19	5.18	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	55	0	58	245	48	35	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.1%	5.6%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	54	0	57	241	47	35	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	3.2%	5.34	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	0	301	1270	249	182	38	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.3%	5.3%	3.0%	5.29	4.89	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	121	25	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.3%	5.3%	3.0%	5.29	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		69	15	155	682	133	95	18	22%	2.2	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.67	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	19	200	880	172	123	23	22%	2.2	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.67	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Sparks (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	17.6%	18.0%	2.9%	—	5.30	19.3%	4.6%	204	-0.58	—	—	—
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	88
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	87
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	86
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	84
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	81
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	81
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
David Lucroy R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	15.8%	16.8%	2.0%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	103	80
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	79
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	79
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	79
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	66	19.3%	14.9%	1.14	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59