Luis Ledo — OGILVIE

Luis Ledo P Salt Lake Bees

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%17.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	5	3	18	72	11	5	0	60%	3.5	10.4%	8.7%	1.7%	0.0%	3.57	3.32	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	5	3	18	72	11	5	0	60%	3.5	15.3%	6.9%	8.3%	0.0%	3.57	2.70	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	16	14	65	269	55	23	3	88%	4.0	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	1.6%	2.64	4.14	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	16	14	65	269	55	23	3	88%	4.0	20.4%	8.6%	11.9%	1.1%	2.64	3.07	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	15	68	17	9	3	10%	1.5	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	4.4%	5.52	5.09	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	15	68	17	9	3	10%	1.5	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	4.4%	5.52	5.28	—
2018	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	32	1	56	255	59	38	6	3%	1.8	17.1%	17.6%	-0.5%	3.0%	4.95	5.51	—
2018	23	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	32	1	56	255	59	38	6	3%	1.8	23.1%	14.9%	8.2%	2.4%	4.95	4.41	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	34	0	44	178	41	21	2	0%	1.3	17.7%	13.6%	4.2%	1.3%	1.83	4.01	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	34	0	44	178	41	21	2	0%	1.3	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	1.1%	1.83	3.26	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	34	0	41	174	52	19	2	0%	1.2	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	1.3%	4.17	3.27	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	34	0	41	174	52	19	2	0%	1.2	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	1.1%	4.17	2.59	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	191	47	25	7	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	4.2%	3.38	5.11	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	45	191	47	25	7	0%	1.2	24.6%	13.1%	11.5%	3.7%	3.38	4.69	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	24	16	76	353	62	53	8	67%	3.2	14.6%	13.5%	1.1%	2.5%	5.66	4.94	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	24	16	76	353	62	53	8	67%	3.2	14.6%	13.5%	1.1%	2.5%	5.66	4.94	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	24	16	76	353	62	53	8	67%	3.2	17.6%	15.0%	2.5%	2.3%	5.66	4.92	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	3	43	209	41	26	7	11%	1.5	16.8%	11.7%	5.1%	3.2%	8.16	4.93	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	3	43	209	41	26	7	11%	1.5	16.8%	11.7%	5.1%	3.2%	8.16	4.93	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	3	43	209	41	26	7	11%	1.5	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.3%	8.16	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	LAA	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	11.6%	5.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAA	24	0	25	106	18	12	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	5.27	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAA	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	7	5	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	4.89	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	109	22	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		220	38	403	1769	307	229	43	17%	1.8	17.4%	13.0%	4.4%	2.4%	4.42	4.60	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	19	200	877	152	114	21	17%	1.8	17.4%	13.0%	4.4%	2.4%	4.42	4.60	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Ledo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	17.3%	11.6%	3.0%	—	5.27	17.5%	5.7%	25	+0.14	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	84
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	79
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	77
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	76
Vin Mazzaro R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	29	SU	4.04	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	76
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	73
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	73
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	73
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	73
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	73
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	17.4%	11.7%	1.20	5.15
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50