Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 30 | 118 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 1.6% | 2.73 | 3.89 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 30 | 118 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.4% | 10.2% | 21.2% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 2.70 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 62 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 0.8% | 3.02 | 3.18 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 62 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 3.02 | 2.64 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 51 | 234 | 53 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 6.14 | 5.25 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 51 | 234 | 53 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 4.42 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 63 | 261 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 2% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 9.9% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 63 | 261 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 2% | 1.3 | 30.7% | 9.6% | 21.1% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 3.20 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 68 | 311 | 84 | 37 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 4.92 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 68 | 311 | 84 | 37 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 4.92 | 3.03 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 5.02 | 3.23 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 1.4% | 5.02 | 3.31 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 42 | 178 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 4% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 42 | 178 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 4% | 1.5 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64 | 0 | 63 | 233 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.0% | 6.0% | 27.0% | 0.9% | 1.14 | 1.57 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64 | 0 | 63 | 233 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.0% | 6.0% | 27.0% | 0.9% | 1.14 | 1.73 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62 | 0 | 61 | 234 | 66 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 4.7% | 23.5% | 2.7% | 2.05 | 2.80 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62 | 0 | 61 | 234 | 66 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 4.7% | 23.5% | 2.6% | 2.05 | 2.76 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 56 | 233 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.6% | 7.0% | 20.6% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.18 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 56 | 233 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.3% | 6.9% | 21.5% | 2.6% | 3.51 | 2.99 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 1.25 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 1.25 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 75 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 6.3% | 21.7% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 75 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 6.3% | 21.7% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 76 | 324 | 92 | 22 | 10 | — | — | 28.3% | 6.8% | 21.5% | 3.0% | 3.36 | 2.92 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 66 | 279 | 92 | 22 | 10 | — | — | 32.9% | 7.9% | 25.0% | 3.5% | 3.87 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 70 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 6.8% | 20.5% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 3.77 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 62 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 19.2% | 3.4% | 3.90 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 67 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 6.8% | 20.5% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 19.2% | 3.4% | 3.90 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 419 | 1 | 429 | 1792 | 496 | 137 | 47 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 2.6% | 3.50 | 3.18 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 835 | 231 | 64 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 2.6% | 3.50 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
| Career | — | 460 | 4 | 535 | 2239 | 574 | 216 | 48 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 3.33 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 1 | 200 | 836 | 214 | 81 | 18 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 3.33 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Phillips (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.52 | 28.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% | — | 3.90 | 26.8% | 19.9% | 117 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 75 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 74 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .257 | 3.20 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 89 | +0.16 | 2.82 | 316 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 71 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 71 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 71 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | .216 | 5.10 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.87 | 1.86 | 238 | 71 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 70 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 69 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.06 | 29.3% | 24.4% | 133 | +1.72 | 2.34 | 232 | 69 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.64 | 22.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 230 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.45 | 30.0% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 5.30 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 80 | +2.85 | 2.45 | 260 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 68 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 68 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.48 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .211 | 3.23 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.75 | 2.48 | 277 | 68 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 68 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 27.3% | 6.7% | 1.22 | 3.67 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |