Alejandro Lugo
P
ACL Padres
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%21.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 16 | ROK | DSL Padres | 19 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.0% | 15.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.24 | 3.77 | — |
| 2019 | 16 | ROK | DSL Padres | 19 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 5.24 | 2.70 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 17 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 4.71 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 17 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.0% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 45 | 204 | 63 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 2.2 | 21.6% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 5.40 | 4.52 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 45 | 204 | 63 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 2.2 | 30.9% | 11.3% | 19.6% | 2.0% | 5.40 | 2.99 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 54 | 235 | 41 | 27 | 5 | 4% | 2.1 | 12.5% | 13.3% | -0.8% | 3.1% | 3.02 | 5.44 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 54 | 235 | 41 | 27 | 5 | 4% | 2.1 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 4.29 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 1 | 27 | 121 | 28 | 17 | 2 | 6% | 1.5 | 17.2% | 18.1% | -0.9% | 3.3% | 5.93 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 1 | 27 | 121 | 28 | 17 | 2 | 6% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 14.0% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 5.93 | 3.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 2 | 169 | 752 | 129 | 113 | 19 | 2% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.92 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 2 | 200 | 888 | 153 | 133 | 22 | 2% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Lugo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 20 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 94 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 90 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 87 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 86 |
| Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.13 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 196 | 86 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 86 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.78 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.49 | 3.26 | 155 | 85 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 85 |