Alejandro Lugo — OGILVIE

Alejandro Lugo P ACL Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%18.3%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	19	0	22	102	24	13	0	0%	1.2	16.0%	15.9%	0.1%	0.0%	5.24	3.77	—
2019	16	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	19	0	22	102	24	13	0	0%	1.2	23.5%	12.7%	10.8%	0.0%	5.24	2.70	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	17	0	21	90	27	12	2	0%	1.2	20.4%	16.7%	3.7%	2.6%	3.86	4.91	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	17	0	21	90	27	12	2	0%	1.2	30.0%	13.3%	16.7%	2.2%	3.86	3.48	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	45	204	63	23	4	0%	2.2	21.6%	14.0%	7.7%	2.6%	5.40	4.49	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	45	204	63	23	4	0%	2.2	21.6%	14.0%	7.7%	2.6%	5.40	4.49	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	45	204	63	23	4	0%	2.2	30.9%	11.3%	19.6%	2.0%	5.40	2.99	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	12.5%	13.3%	-0.8%	3.0%	3.02	5.36	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	12.5%	13.3%	-0.8%	3.0%	3.02	5.36	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	17.4%	11.5%	6.0%	2.1%	3.02	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.93	5.76	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.93	5.76	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.7%	5.93	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SD	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.3%	14.1%	4.2%	3.0%	5.37	5.37	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	50	209	41	26	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.12	5.02	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	48	0	50	212	44	24	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.81	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	20	0	21	89	18	11	3	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.12	5.02	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	31	0	33	139	29	16	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	230	47	27	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.8%	8.4%	3.0%	5.00	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	99	26	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.8%	8.4%	3.0%	5.00	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		100	2	169	752	129	113	19	2%	1.7	17.2%	15.0%	2.1%	2.5%	4.52	4.92	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	2	200	888	153	133	22	2%	1.7	17.2%	15.0%	2.1%	2.5%	4.52	4.92	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	18.3%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.91	20.2%	8.2%	100	-0.46	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	92
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	92
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	280	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	87
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	86
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	86
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	85
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	19.9%	12.3%	1.15	5.07
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84