Samuel Carpio — OGILVIE

Samuel Carpio P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.38

FIP6.38

K%22.2%

BB%25.3%

K-BB%-3.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	5	0	7	36	9	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	7.36	4.98	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	5	0	7	36	9	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	7.36	4.98	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	5	0	7	36	9	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	7.36	5.28	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	1.7%	2.49	4.20	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	1.7%	2.49	4.20	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	31.1%	12.2%	18.9%	1.1%	2.49	2.64	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	22.0%	25.3%	-3.3%	2.0%	5.16	5.54	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	22.0%	25.3%	-3.3%	2.0%	5.16	5.54	—
2025	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	29.8%	21.4%	8.3%	1.6%	5.16	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	24.8%	-3.6%	1.4%	5.10	5.20	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	24.8%	-3.6%	1.4%	5.10	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIA	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	28.8%	21.1%	7.7%	1.1%	5.10	3.91	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	22	5	6	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	25.3%	-3.1%	2.9%	6.38	6.38	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	65	307	87	66	4	—	—	28.3%	21.4%	6.9%	1.2%	5.20	5.29	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	266	61	57	8	0%	1.1	22.9%	21.3%	1.6%	2.8%	5.95	5.81	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	63	50	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	18.6%	4.6%	2.8%	5.59	5.43	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	26	0	27	114	26	24	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	21.3%	1.6%	2.8%	5.95	5.81	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	40	0	42	177	41	33	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	18.6%	4.6%	2.8%	5.59	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	293	68	58	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	19.7%	3.5%	2.8%	5.73	5.20	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	167	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	19.7%	3.5%	2.8%	5.73	5.20	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		96	0	141	663	144	155	11	0%	1.5	21.8%	23.4%	-1.7%	1.7%	4.84	5.18	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	938	204	220	16	0%	1.5	21.8%	23.4%	-1.7%	1.7%	4.84	5.18	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Carpio (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.38	22.2%	25.3%	2.9%	—	5.62	23.1%	3.1%	127	-0.76	—	—	—
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	84
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	82
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	81
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	81
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	81
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	80
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	80
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	80
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	80
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	80
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	79
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	78
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	78
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	78
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	77
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.8%	9.6%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	22.8%	21.7%	1.10	5.97
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91