Samuel Carpio
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155146vR 136
ERA6.07
FIP6.07
K%22.2%
BB%22.9%
K-BB%-0.7%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 19.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 7.36 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 19.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 7.36 | 5.28 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 16 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 15.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.49 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 16 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.1% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 2.49 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 34 | 0 | 52 | 252 | 75 | 54 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 25.3% | -3.3% | 1.9% | 5.16 | 5.50 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 34 | 0 | 52 | 252 | 75 | 54 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.8% | 21.4% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 5.16 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 26 | 0 | 38 | 183 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 27.1% | -6.9% | 2.1% | 4.54 | 5.99 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 58 | 60 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 22.9% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 6.07 | 6.07 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 22.9% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 6.07 | 6.07 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 99 | 443 | 108 | 102 | 10 | — | — | 24.3% | 22.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 5.49 | 6.04 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 52 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 47 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 17.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 17.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 51 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 120 | 506 | 118 | 89 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 17.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 4.92 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 148 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 17.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 0 | 119 | 561 | 121 | 134 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 23.9% | -2.4% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 943 | 203 | 225 | 19 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 23.9% | -2.4% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Carpio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.07 | 22.2% | 22.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.34 | 23.2% | 5.3% | 191 | -0.73 | — | — | — |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 89 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 87 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 87 |
| Andrew Baker R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.91 | 24.7% | 25.1% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.07 | 26.1% | 14.0% | 146 | -2.84 | 1.85 | 241 | 86 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.68 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 3.3% | .303 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 49 | -1.41 | 3.01 | 135 | 86 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.58 | 24.6% | 21.6% | 3.3% | .237 | 4.39 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 153 | -1.19 | 4.00 | 271 | 85 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 85 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.02 | 18.9% | 18.6% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.46 | 14.8% | 2.2% | 77 | -0.56 | 4.32 | 117 | 85 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 85 |
| Zane Russell R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 85 |
| Jacob Morris R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 84 |
| Cody Adcock R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 18.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.69 | 25.7% | 3.9% | 26 | -1.85 | 3.34 | 139 | 84 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.99 | 21.0% | 17.9% | 2.5% | .279 | 5.09 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 82 | +0.10 | 3.55 | 156 | 83 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 83 |
| Luis De La Cruz R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.65 | 20.6% | 23.1% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 139 | 83 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 83 |
| Luis Mora R 2027 · 5.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.55 | 23.9% | 22.7% | 2.9% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 119 | 83 |
| Joseph Yabbour R 2025 · 6.58 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.58 | 20.2% | 24.2% | 3.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 105 | 82 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 81 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 23.0% | 19.1% | 1.10 | 5.61 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |