Stephen Nogosek — OGILVIE

Stephen Nogosek P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA4.83

FIP5.08

K%20.0%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

CT-1.7

FB-3.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	10	0	14	63	12	3	1	0%	1.4	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	2.1%	5.14	3.75	—
2016	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	10	0	14	63	12	3	1	0%	1.4	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	1.6%	5.14	2.96	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	69	287	78	26	7	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	2.6%	3.52	4.14	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	69	287	78	26	7	0%	1.5	27.2%	9.1%	18.1%	2.4%	3.52	3.29	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	235	58	39	7	0%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.7%	3.5%	4.99	5.74	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	235	58	39	7	0%	1.3	24.7%	16.6%	8.1%	3.0%	4.99	4.86	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	57	229	56	27	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	13.8%	8.1%	0.6%	2.21	3.32	+0.8
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	57	229	56	27	3	0%	1.4	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	1.3%	2.21	3.24	+0.9
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	3	42	185	60	15	4	9%	1.3	29.1%	9.4%	19.8%	1.3%	4.93	2.56	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	3	42	185	60	15	4	9%	1.3	32.4%	8.1%	24.3%	2.2%	4.93	2.55	+1.0
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	65	271	74	22	6	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	2.3%	2.35	3.30	+1.0
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	65	271	74	22	6	0%	1.5	27.3%	8.1%	19.2%	2.2%	2.35	3.04	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	62	294	61	46	9	0%	1.5	18.4%	14.1%	4.3%	2.9%	6.42	4.91	-0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	62	294	61	46	9	0%	1.5	18.4%	14.1%	4.3%	2.9%	6.42	4.91	-0.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	62	294	61	46	9	0%	1.5	20.7%	15.6%	5.1%	3.1%	6.42	5.26	-0.5
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	15.6%	20.3%	-4.7%	7.0%	9.77	8.18	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	15.6%	20.3%	-4.7%	7.0%	9.77	8.18	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	11	0	16	80	15	18	5	0%	1.4	18.8%	22.5%	-3.8%	6.2%	9.77	8.78	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.87	4.48	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.87	4.48	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	41	5	57	251	60	25	8	12%	1.4	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.87	4.13	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	0	57	259	57	23	14	0%	1.7	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	5.4%	5.02	5.49	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	KC	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.8%	9.1%	3.5%	4.83	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	KC	54	0	56	238	46	26	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.06	5.26	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	52	218	41	25	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.9%	5.28	5.47	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	KC	20	0	21	89	17	10	3	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.06	5.26	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	22	13	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.9%	5.28	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	0	107	467	97	46	22	0%	1.3	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	4.7%	5.10	5.18	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	0	200	876	182	86	41	0%	1.3	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	4.7%	5.10	5.18	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		305	8	434	1895	401	229	50	3%	1.4	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	2.6%	4.35	4.29	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	4	200	873	185	106	23	3%	1.4	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	2.6%	4.35	4.29	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Nogosek (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	20.0%	10.8%	3.5%	—	5.36	19.2%	8.0%	108	+0.28	—	—	—
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	87
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	85
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	85
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	84
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	84
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	84
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	79
Javy Guerra R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	16.7%	8.6%	3.4%	.282	3.61	20.9%	15.1%	136	-1.05	2.95	260	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	79
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	78
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	77
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	77
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	77
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	75
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.5%	11.1%	1.42	5.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58