Stephen Nogosek
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA4.89
FIP5.20
K%20.8%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
CT-1.7
FB-3.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 10 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.1% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 5.14 | 3.75 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 10 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 1.6% | 5.14 | 2.96 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 69 | 287 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.52 | 4.06 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 69 | 287 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 18.1% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 235 | 58 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 18.6% | 0.7% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.66 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 235 | 58 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 16.6% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.86 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 57 | 229 | 56 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 8.1% | 0.6% | 2.21 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 57 | 229 | 56 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 1.3% | 2.21 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 3 | 42 | 185 | 60 | 15 | 4 | 9% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 9.4% | 19.8% | 1.3% | 4.93 | 2.54 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 3 | 42 | 185 | 60 | 15 | 4 | 9% | 1.3 | 32.4% | 8.1% | 24.3% | 2.2% | 4.93 | 2.55 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 74 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 2.35 | 3.29 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 74 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 2.35 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 62 | 294 | 61 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 6.42 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 62 | 294 | 61 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 15.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 6.42 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 11 | 0 | 16 | 80 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.5% | 23.6% | -7.1% | 7.1% | 9.77 | 8.58 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 11 | 0 | 16 | 80 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.8% | 22.5% | -3.8% | 6.2% | 9.77 | 8.78 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 41 | 5 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 12% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.56 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 41 | 5 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 12% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 53 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 48 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 43 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 0 | 107 | 467 | 98 | 49 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 876 | 184 | 92 | 41 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 305 | 8 | 434 | 1895 | 407 | 240 | 49 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 4 | 200 | 873 | 187 | 111 | 23 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stephen Nogosek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 20.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.47 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 108 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 86 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 84 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 84 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 79 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 79 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 78 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.78 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .282 | 3.61 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 76 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 76 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.69 | 4.11 | 156 | 76 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 74 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 74 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 1.42 | 5.12 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |