Kevin Rodriguez
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 145 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.5%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 15 | 1 | 30 | 137 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.67 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 13 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 5.40 | 5.96 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 15 | 0 | 21 | 92 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 2.34 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 38 | 1 | 70 | 293 | 74 | 23 | 8 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 3.88 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 29 | 0 | 47 | 203 | 33 | 18 | 1 | 12.0% | 10.5% | 0.6% | 4.37 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 2 | 188 | 811 | 133 | 82 | 19 | 16.4% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.31 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 2 | 200 | 863 | 141 | 87 | 20 | 16.4% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 134 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 91 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 91 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 90 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 89 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 88 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 86 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .312 | 4.04 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.80 | 3.24 | 113 | 85 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 85 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 85 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 85 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 85 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 84 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 84 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $3M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.