Charlie Weber — OGILVIE

Charlie Weber P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%22.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	1.3%	3.50	2.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	70	0	73	309	71	30	9	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	71	0	75	316	75	29	9	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.25	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	76	320	77	29	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.18	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	76	320	77	29	9	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	71	0	75	315	76	28	9	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.1%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	69	0	72	306	74	28	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.28	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	66	0	69	292	70	27	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	274	64	27	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	35	15	4	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	52	20	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.25	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	62	23	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.18	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	63	0	66	279	67	25	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	64	0	67	283	68	26	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.1%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	64	0	67	283	68	26	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.28	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	61	0	64	270	64	25	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	60	25	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		453	0	475	2007	478	186	61	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.92	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	78	26	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		22	9	72	301	58	35	5	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	25	200	836	160	98	14	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie Weber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.2%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.27	23.6%	14.2%	224	-0.30	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	80
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	80
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	79
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	79
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	78
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	78
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	68	23.7%	9.3%	1.17	4.32
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93