Samuel Pardo

C DSL Rays

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1357ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	41	.114/.244/.114	0	2	-27	—	.083/.195/.083
2026	18	ROKTB	191	.244/.360/.319	1	2	31	—	.156/.254/.192
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBTB	301	.210/.279/.282	2	5	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBTB	52	.217/.287/.300	1	1	67	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBTB	124	.221/.292/.313	2	3	72	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%57

Z-Con%55

Whiff%45

Speed38

Chase%33

wRC+32

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Luis Vázquez (age 19) · Jason Lopez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .277 / .279

PA100

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	35	4	0	0	0	4	10	2	2	0	114	244	114	358		160	24	10	192	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	191	160	39	7	1	1	23	38	6	2	0	244	360	319	679	75	309	20	12	316	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	36	3	0	0	0	3	12	2	2	0	83	195	83	278		106	29	7	129	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	167	26	4	1	0	16	46	6	2	0	156	254	192	446	36	209	24	8	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	36	3	0	0	0	3	12	2	2	0	83	195	83	278		125	29	7	129	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	35	4	0	0	0	4	10	2	2	0	114	244	114	358		160	24	10	192	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	167	26	4	1	0	16	46	6	2	0	156	254	192	446	36	211	24	8	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	191	160	39	7	1	1	23	38	6	2	0	244	360	319	679	75	309	20	12	316	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	36	3	0	0	0	3	12	2	2	0	83	195	83	278		106	29	7	129	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	167	26	4	1	0	16	46	6	2	0	156	254	192	446	36	209	24	8	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	41	36	3	0	0	0	3	12	2	2	0	83	195	83	278		106	29	7	129	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	167	26	4	1	0	16	46	6	2	0	156	254	192	446	36	209	24	8	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TB	0%	301	272	57	9	2	2	22	80	4	5	2	210	279	282	561	72	286	27	7	258	60	-14	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TB	34%	151	137	30	5	1	2	11	39	2	3	1	215	285	298	583	83	287	26	7	267	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	TB	48%	255	230	50	8	2	3	19	66	4	5	2	219	290	312	602	93	289	26	7	274	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	TB	54%	364	328	73	12	2	6	27	93	6	8	3	222	294	324	618	102	290	26	7	280	76	-10	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	TB	57%	436	393	88	14	3	7	33	110	7	9	3	225	297	334	631	109	291	25	8	285	79	-11	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	TB	57%	445	401	91	15	3	8	34	112	7	9	3	228	299	343	642	115	292	25	8	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	TB	57%	445	401	92	15	3	9	34	112	7	9	3	229	300	346	646	117	292	25	8	292	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	445	401	92	15	3	9	34	112	7	9	4	229	300	349	649	120	292	25	8	293	84	-8	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	445	401	92	15	3	9	34	112	7	9	4	228	299	346	645	118	291	25	8	291	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	TB	59%	445	401	92	15	3	9	34	113	7	9	4	226	297	341	639	115	290	25	8	288	81	-10	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	TB	61%	445	402	89	14	3	8	34	115	6	8	4	224	294	335	629	111	289	26	8	285	79	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	TB	62%	445	402	89	14	3	8	34	116	6	8	5	221	291	327	618	106	287	26	8	280	76	-13	-0	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	TB	63%	426	385	83	13	2	7	32	113	6	7	6	216	286	317	603	101	284	27	8	274	71	-14	-1	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	TB	34%	52	47	11	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	217	287	300	587	82	291	27	8	268	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	TB	48%	124	112	25	4	1	2	9	32	2	3	1	221	292	313	605	92	293	26	7	276	72	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	TB	54%	197	177	39	6	1	3	15	50	3	4	2	225	296	325	621	100	294	25	8	282	76	-6	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	TB	57%	247	222	51	8	2	4	19	62	4	5	2	228	299	335	634	107	295	25	8	287	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	TB	57%	252	227	53	8	2	5	19	63	4	5	2	230	301	343	645	113	296	25	8	291	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	TB	57%	251	226	52	8	2	5	19	63	4	5	2	231	302	347	649	116	296	25	8	293	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	251	226	52	8	2	5	19	63	4	5	2	231	302	349	652	118	296	25	8	294	84	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	247	222	52	8	2	5	19	62	4	5	2	230	301	346	648	116	295	25	8	292	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	TB	59%	263	237	54	8	2	5	20	67	4	5	2	228	299	342	641	113	294	25	8	289	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	TB	61%	271	244	56	9	2	5	21	70	4	5	3	226	296	335	632	109	293	26	8	286	79	-7	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	TB	62%	277	250	57	9	2	5	21	72	4	5	3	223	293	327	620	105	291	26	8	281	76	-8	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	TB	63%	269	243	53	8	2	4	20	71	4	5	4	219	288	318	605	99	288	26	7	275	71	-9	-1	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2701	2433	555	86	20	49	205	689	42	53	25	228	299	340	640	112	297	26	8	286	76	-68	+1	-4	+48	+59	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	134	21	5	12	49	166	10	13	6	229	299	343	642	114	297	26	8	286	76	-16	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5079	4577	1010	162	33	86	386	1297	81	99	43	221	293	327	620	106	287	26	8	280	76	-125	+2	-7	+87	+105	6.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	129	21	4	11	49	166	10	13	6	220	291	326	617	106	286	26	8	280	76	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Rays · 191 PAwOBA .312 → .214 (−98)K% 19.9% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.04%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.49%
HBP% /PA	3.14%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.22%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.019	×1.008	17.16%
Doubles /BIP	5.74%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.019	×1.008	3.53%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.019	×1.008	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.82%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.39%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .312 → .214; ISO .075 → .044; BABIP .309 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 41 PAwOBA .188 → .129 (−60)K% 24.4% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.39%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.76%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.91%
HBP% /PA	4.88%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.49%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.054	×0.680	—	×1.022	10.55%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.952	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .188 → .129; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .160 → .106. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.2	2,801	49	55	225	292	334	+50	+32	5.7	5.1
/162	664	12	13	+11.9	+7.6	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samuel Pardo (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	208/277/279	71	286	1	2	26%	7%	60	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Jose Rosario 2011 · A	19	41	38→40	50	42	199/262/275	76	274	5	10	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/261/320	106	270	10	12	24%	4%	63	-1.3	230/277/334	104	276	9	10	19%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	40	36→40	48→45	45	189/256/257	68	261	3	9	27%	8%	47	-2.5	183/228/250	67	245	3	9	25%	4%	34	-3.5	223/284/281	57	303	4	8	26%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	40	37→45	45→30	42	191/256/259	68	246	4	5	24%	6%	48	-2.5	210/260/300	90	277	8	4	26%	4%	58	-1.7	184/228/264	80	253	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	40	185/238/269	84	259	7	4	30%	6%	43	-2.8	195/239/273	78	247	5	3	22%	5%	44	-2.8	242/310/379	137	297	17	3	24%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	38→40	37→45	47→40	51	178/266/252	74	226	3	8	21%	9%	51	-2.2	196/294/293	97	262	8	6	26%	11%	71	-0.8	190/299/286	95	257	10	4	27%	13%	70	-0.5
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2014 · A	19	36→46	37→45	50→55	46	176/242/253	76	228	4	12	24%	7%	41	-3.0	231/280/336	105	295	5	13	22%	6%	74	-0.6	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3

Samuel Pardo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps