Diego Arce — OGILVIE

Diego ArceC DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 225 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 49 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+42

AVG/OBP/SLG.142 / .264 / .165

PA49

HR0

K%36

BB%8

BABIP247

ISO24

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.5M
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.1M
Totals		$8M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	147	115	12	2	0	1	14	69	18	0	0	104	299	148	447	43	244	47	10	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	147	106	17	3	0	1	23	46	18	0	0	160	395	217	612	57	271	31	16	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	74	58	6	1	0	0	5	37	10	2	0	103	288	121	408	17	286	50	7	194	7	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	74	55	9	2	0	0	8	26	10	2	0	164	370	200	570	36	310	35	11	295	84	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	18	ROK	—	0%	49	42	6	1	0	0	4	18	3	1	0	142	264	165	429	24	265	36	8	241	42	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	—	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		265	—	—	241	42	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	—	—	74	59	6	1	0	0	5	37	10	2	0	102	288	119	406	17	273	50	7	194	7	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
TOT	18	ROK	—	—	123	100	12	2	0	0	9	55	13	3	0	120	278	140	417	20	265	45	7	213	21	-11	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	212	185	32	6	1	2	16	72	9	3	1	173	271	249	520	76	270	34	8	251	51	-12	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	347	302	56	10	2	5	27	115	15	6	2	185	285	281	566	96	273	33	8	261	58	-16	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.0
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	448	390	73	13	2	7	36	145	19	8	2	187	288	285	572	97	276	32	8	268	63	-19	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.3
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	520	452	86	15	2	9	42	166	21	9	3	190	289	292	581	102	277	32	8	272	66	-20	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.5
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	520	452	86	15	2	9	42	166	21	9	3	190	289	292	581	102	278	32	8	274	68	-19	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.6
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	520	452	88	16	2	9	42	165	21	10	3	195	293	299	592	104	279	32	8	275	69	-18	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	520	452	88	16	2	9	42	165	21	10	3	195	293	299	592	104	279	32	8	276	70	-18	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2034	26	MLB	—	60%	520	451	87	15	2	10	42	165	22	10	3	193	293	302	595	109	278	32	8	277	70	-18	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2035	27	MLB	—	62%	520	450	87	15	2	10	43	165	22	10	3	193	295	302	597	109	278	32	8	277	70	-18	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2036	28	MLB	—	63%	520	450	86	15	2	9	44	166	21	9	3	191	293	293	587	102	277	32	8	276	69	-18	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.6
2037	29	MLB	—	65%	520	450	86	15	2	9	44	167	21	9	3	191	293	293	587	102	276	32	8	274	68	-19	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.4
2038	30	MLB	—	65%	520	450	85	15	2	9	44	168	21	9	2	189	291	291	582	102	275	32	8	271	66	-20	+1	-2	+9	+15	0.3
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	73	64	11	2	0	1	6	25	3	1	0	172	274	250	524	78	270	34	8	251	51	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	168	146	27	5	1	2	13	56	7	3	1	185	283	274	557	89	273	33	8	261	58	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	243	212	40	7	1	4	19	79	10	4	1	189	286	288	574	99	276	33	8	268	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	294	256	49	9	1	5	24	94	12	5	1	191	291	293	584	102	277	32	8	272	66	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	299	261	50	9	1	5	24	95	12	5	2	192	290	291	581	100	278	32	8	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	296	258	49	9	1	5	24	94	12	5	2	190	289	291	580	101	279	32	8	275	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	295	257	49	9	1	5	24	94	12	5	2	191	290	292	582	101	279	32	8	276	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2034	26	MLB	—	60%	314	272	53	9	1	6	26	100	13	6	2	195	296	301	597	107	278	32	8	277	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.4
2035	27	MLB	—	62%	323	280	54	10	1	6	27	103	13	6	2	193	294	300	594	107	278	32	8	277	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.4
2036	28	MLB	—	63%	329	284	55	10	1	6	28	105	14	6	2	194	298	299	597	106	277	32	9	276	69	-11	+0	-0	+6	+9	0.4
2037	29	MLB	—	65%	338	293	56	10	1	6	28	109	14	6	2	191	293	294	586	102	276	32	8	274	68	-12	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.3
2038	30	MLB	—	65%	338	292	56	10	1	6	29	109	14	6	2	192	296	295	590	103	275	32	9	271	66	-13	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3310	2876	549	99	11	57	272	1063	136	58	19	191	292	292	584	102	278	32	8	273	67	-123	+4	-3	+59	+94	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	107	19	2	11	53	209	27	11	4	189	290	288	578	99	276	32	8	273	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	5883	5093	958	169	23	98	482	1912	255	103	31	188	291	288	579	100	276	32	8	270	65	-232	+8	-4	+105	+167	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	563	107	19	3	11	53	211	28	11	3	190	292	293	585	103	278	32	8	270	65	-26	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	147	106	17	3	0	1	23	46	18	0	0	160	395	217	612	57	271	31	16	320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
#3Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#4Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,434	58	61	192	289	295	+61	+32	3.1	2.9
	/162	664	11	12	192	289	295	+11.9	+6.2	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Diego Arce (OGILVIE)	18	20→25	30→35	44→49	56	120/278/140	20	265	0	3	45%	7%	21	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	48	-1.9	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	53	-1.5	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	39	-0.7
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	25	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	52	-1.6	192/263/269	77	285	7	32	32%	8%	44	-0.7
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	41	195/262/260	64	278	3	10	29%	6%	44	-2.1	202/257/256	54	271	2	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	184/237/220	36	252	1	8	26%	5%	21	-0.9
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	37	40→45	51→60	42	173/271/261	88	302	7	6	41%	9%	50	-1.8	193/299/287	94	289	6	11	32%	11%	68	-0.5	180/305/264	84	250	5	20	26%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	36	-2.7	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2011 · A	18	38	36→45	48→40	39	186/240/247	61	267	4	5	31%	5%	30	-3.1	192/249/275	83	281	7	4	32%	5%	42	-2.3	187/245/279	93	270	8	2	33%	5%	39	-0.7
✕Juan Zabala 2017 · A	18	41	36→40	49→50	40	193/261/259	66	274	3	10	29%	6%	43	-2.2	185/266/247	62	249	2	7	24%	8%	43	-2.2	204/284/284	80	266	7	17	24%	8%	56	-0.5
✕Jesus Galiz 2022 · A	18	40	36→45	51→40	40	190/241/256	66	253	3	7	25%	5%	33	-2.9	200/258/308	108	293	10	4	33%	6%	55	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Bryan Andrade 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	49→45	44	191/257/246	55	259	2	5	26%	7%	38	-2.6	187/247/239	52	258	3	4	27%	6%	31	-3.0	187/256/263	76	248	7	5	26%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Mariel Bautista 2016 · A	18	41→34	38→45	50	40	197/258/282	85	286	5	8	31%	6%	48	-1.9	226/275/318	92	287	6	14	22%	5%	63	-0.8	239/283/340	101	289	8	18	19%	4%	70	-0.1
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Jandel Paulino 2019 · A	18	39	35→40	41→45	40	185/261/243	58	280	3	8	33%	7%	40	-2.4	212/286/295	83	307	6	6	31%	7%	63	-0.8	215/300/291	76	303	6	4	28%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Victor Moscote 2012 · A	18	37	41→30	46→45	39	186/242/285	99	271	9	5	34%	6%	42	-2.3	204/255/276	72	289	5	5	29%	6%	44	-2.1	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	40	-0.8