Caden Merritt

OF Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	A/ROKATL	349	.220/.365/.362	6	35	50	—	.156/.270/.246
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBATL	459	.185/.274/.283	7	12	60	-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBATL	104	.191/.280/.297	2	3	65	-0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBATL	193	.196/.284/.309	4	5	70	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed87

BB%81

Chase%56

ISO44

wRC+43

wOBA40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJohan Mieses (age 20) · Hans Montero (age 20) · Robert Gonzalez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .272 / .280

PA210

HR3

SB5

K%32

BB%10

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	185	151	31	3	3	3	30	63	3	15	7	205	346	325	670	119	329	34	16	313	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	164	131	31	5	4	3	28	46	4	20	4	237	387	405	791	168	337	28	17	358	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	185	160	24	2	2	2	22	86	3	15	7	150	265	225	490	75	317	46	12	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	164	141	23	3	3	2	18	66	4	20	4	163	276	270	546	106	277	40	11	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	349	302	48	6	5	4	39	152	7	35	11	159	270	252	522	93	299	44	11	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	349	282	62	8	7	6	58	109	7	35	11	220	365	362	727	142	333	31	17	335	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	349	300	48	6	5	4	39	152	7	35	11	160	270	253	523	93	298	44	11	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	349	300	48	6	5	4	39	152	7	35	11	160	270	253	523	93	298	44	11	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	459	407	76	13	4	7	44	145	5	12	3	185	274	283	557	98	266	32	10	257	60	-22	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	302	266	51	9	2	5	29	93	4	8	2	191	280	297	577	106	268	31	10	265	65	-12	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	ATL	48%	398	351	69	12	3	7	39	120	5	11	3	196	284	309	593	113	271	30	10	271	70	-14	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	455	403	80	14	3	9	44	135	5	13	3	200	288	318	605	118	272	30	10	276	73	-15	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	496	439	89	15	4	10	48	145	6	14	4	203	290	325	615	122	274	29	10	280	75	-14	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	ATL	56%	518	457	94	16	4	11	50	149	6	15	4	206	292	330	622	124	275	29	10	282	77	-14	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	104	92	18	3	1	2	10	32	1	3	1	191	280	297	577	106	268	31	10	265	65	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	ATL	48%	193	170	34	6	1	4	19	58	2	5	1	196	284	309	593	113	271	30	10	271	70	-7	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	247	218	43	7	2	5	24	73	3	7	2	200	288	318	605	118	272	30	10	276	73	-8	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	275	243	50	9	2	6	27	80	3	8	2	203	290	325	615	122	274	29	10	280	75	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	ATL	56%	290	257	52	9	2	6	28	84	3	8	2	206	292	330	622	124	275	29	10	282	77	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1109	980	197	34	8	23	108	327	12	31	8	201	288	322	611	121	274	29	10	277	69	-35	+3	+0	-7	+24	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	115	20	5	13	63	192	7	18	5	200	287	321	607	120	274	30	10	277	69	-21	+2	+0	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2728	2404	466	78	23	49	269	860	35	101	28	194	284	307	591	113	277	32	10	270	69	-80	+6	+0	-14	+52	-3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	111	19	5	12	64	205	8	24	7	194	284	307	591	113	276	32	10	270	69	-22	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 185 PAwOBA .306 → .238 (−69)K% 34.1% → 46.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.05%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	46.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.22%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	11.69%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.32%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.020	×1.045	24.50%
Doubles /BIP	3.41%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.020	×1.045	3.01%
Triples /BIP	3.41%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.020	×1.045	3.31%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.85%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .306 → .238; ISO .119 → .091; BABIP .329 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 164 PAwOBA .352 → .246 (−106)K% 28.0% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.05%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	40.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.07%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	10.66%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.77%
Singles /BIP	22.35%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.042	×1.008	19.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.042	×1.008	4.45%
Triples /BIP	4.71%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.042	×1.008	3.56%
Home runs /BIP	3.53%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.77%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .352 → .246; ISO .168 → .117; BABIP .337 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.0	1,318	25	37	199	284	315	-8	+0	-1.2	-0.6
/162	664	13	19	-4.0	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caden Merritt (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	36→41	62→67	65	184/272/280	97	266	3	5	32%	10%	60	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	39→33	39→55	59→50	45	191/248/281	90	242	5	22	23%	6%	49	-2.4	195/243/347	152	271	18	8	34%	5%	63	-1.3	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Hans Montero 2024 · A	20	36→37	37→45	55	49	172/276/241	69	264	5	18	33%	11%	53	-2.1	182/260/285	103	297	10	17	39%	8%	56	-1.9	173/254/287	113	278	12	22	39%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→40	38→50	54→55	44	200/273/281	81	280	6	20	29%	7%	59	-1.6	210/281/330	120	279	11	18	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/280/342	138	273	13	19	29%	8%	74	-0.5
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/249/256	81	276	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	192/257/267	75	279	5	10	31%	7%	50	-2.3	170/235/212	43	235	3	6	27%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	38	39→40	57→55	51	185/264/271	86	233	6	20	22%	9%	54	-2.0	184/265/261	77	273	4	22	31%	8%	52	-2.2	194/290/265	72	282	5	28	30%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Anyelo Encarnación 2024 · A	20	41→36	38→40	54→50	49	188/284/272	84	293	5	14	34%	11%	62	-1.4	183/267/272	89	313	8	14	40%	9%	56	-1.9	171/261/262	92	293	9	17	41%	10%	49	-1.4
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→36	41→45	53→50	41	221/279/318	97	292	8	13	26%	6%	70	-0.9	201/256/267	66	276	3	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	183/239/233	50	254	1	10	26%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	53→50	46	189/269/285	96	280	8	13	33%	9%	59	-1.6	194/280/279	85	302	5	15	34%	10%	62	-1.4	185/278/271	86	290	5	16	34%	10%	58	-1.1
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Max George 2016 · A	20	40→39	40→45	54→55	43	189/275/278	90	295	7	14	35%	8%	61	-1.5	189/271/295	106	262	9	15	30%	8%	63	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Yasser Mercedes 2024 · A	19	39→36	43→45	56→60	40	198/244/309	111	261	10	21	28%	5%	54	-2.0	188/256/309	121	271	12	24	33%	8%	59	-1.6	175/251/301	127	251	14	32	35%	8%	54	-1.3
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	37→32	39→40	51→50	49	180/260/269	89	230	6	13	24%	8%	53	-2.1	179/254/271	92	260	6	10	31%	8%	50	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Angel Aponte 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	56→55	44	185/255/267	82	238	6	20	24%	6%	50	-2.3	204/263/292	88	285	6	19	29%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/297	93	286	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Enmanuel Tejeda 2024 · A	19	45→36	39→40	55→60	56	209/320/298	89	285	6	19	26%	12%	82	-0.0	221/297/305	84	297	7	25	26%	9%	74	-0.6	206/283/289	83	268	8	31	25%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	41	38→40	53→55	45	197/253/283	86	255	5	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	212/290/283	71	299	4	17	27%	9%	66	-1.1	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	40	39→45	53→55	52	192/277/280	88	229	6	14	19%	8%	61	-1.5	221/287/329	108	296	9	10	27%	6%	75	-0.5	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5

Caden Merritt

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps