Alexander Lopez

P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 172 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKTB	7	0	8	12.96	4.18	20.0%	20.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.94
2026	20	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	10	8	26	3.81	3.14	23.0%	8.0%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	3	3	16	4.58	4.58	21.0%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	2	2	12	4.44	4.37	22.1%	9.1%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFlorencio Serrano (age 21) · Wilmer Ortega (age 21) · Carson Rudd (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%21.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	7	0	8	45	9	9	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.96	3.94	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	7	0	8	45	9	9	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.96	3.94	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	7	0	8	45	9	9	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.96	4.18	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	8	26	113	26	9	2	80%	2.6	15.6%	10.0%	5.7%	2.5%	3.81	4.40	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	8	26	113	26	9	2	80%	2.6	15.6%	10.0%	5.7%	2.5%	3.81	4.40	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	10	8	26	113	26	9	2	80%	2.6	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	1.8%	3.81	3.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	3	3	16	68	14	7	2	100%	5.3	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	4	4	25	104	23	9	3	100%	6.2	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	12	51	11	5	1	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	51	11	5	1	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	182	83	17	100%	5.1	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		17	8	34	158	27	20	3	47%	2.0	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	1.8%	6.03	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	47	200	920	155	118	16	47%	2.0	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	1.8%	6.03	4.27	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.0%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.37	22.1%	13.1%	25	-0.21	—	—	—
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	83
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	82
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	82
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	78
Ryan Fernandez R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP-	4.44	19.2%	6.8%	3.8%	.357	3.37	20.8%	13.2%	53	-1.07	3.02	363	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	78
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	78
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	77
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	77
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	77
Grant Holman R 2021 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	18.2%	7.7%	5.5%	.308	3.66	22.2%	14.1%	133	-1.89	3.02	203	77
Miguelangel Boadas R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP-	3.55	20.6%	11.0%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	129	76
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	76
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	76
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	76