Mason Estrada
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%23.1%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 16 | 13 | 58 | 280 | 66 | 50 | 9 | 81% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 21.1% | -3.6% | 4.2% | 7.96 | 6.59 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 40 | 171 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 98 | 451 | 105 | 67 | 14 | — | — | 23.4% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 6.52 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 42 | 177 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 43 | 181 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 180 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 41 | 175 | 43 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 208 | 75 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 75 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 13 | 58 | 280 | 49 | 59 | 12 | 81% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 21.1% | -3.6% | 4.2% | 7.96 | 6.59 | -1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 45 | 200 | 971 | 169 | 205 | 41 | 81% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 21.1% | -3.6% | 4.2% | 7.96 | 6.59 | -2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.20 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 128 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 87 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 85 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 85 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 84 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 84 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 84 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 83 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 83 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 82 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 82 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 82 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 81 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 81 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 42 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 1.16 | 4.24 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |