Mason Estrada — OGILVIE

Mason Estrada P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%21.8%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAD	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	24.9%	18.2%	6.8%	3.3%	8.09	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	77	325	74	45	10	100%	5.5	22.7%	13.9%	8.8%	3.0%	5.08	4.96	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	79	333	77	41	10	100%	5.6	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.71	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	80	337	80	38	10	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.55	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	80	337	80	38	10	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.52	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	79	332	79	38	10	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	76	322	76	37	10	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.64	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	73	307	72	36	10	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	289	67	35	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	38	160	36	22	5	100%	5.4	22.7%	13.9%	8.8%	3.1%	5.15	5.03	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	55	232	54	29	7	100%	5.5	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.78	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	65	274	65	31	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.62	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	70	296	70	33	9	100%	5.8	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.59	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	71	34	9	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	70	296	70	34	10	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.71	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	68	287	67	34	10	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.85	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	62	33	10	100%	5.8	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	3.6%	4.93	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	500	2112	496	250	68	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.38	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	100	27	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		23	15	76	369	68	79	16	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	40	200	975	180	209	41	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	21.8%	16.1%	3.0%	—	4.74	23.2%	10.7%	236	-0.61	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	87
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	78
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	78
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	76
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	23.4%	12.1%	1.19	4.76
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81