Daniel Burciaga

P DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Padres Go…	13	5	32	5.06	4.10	14.4%	11.0%	—	K 9.8% · BB 13.7% · FIP 5.11
2026	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	9	0	11	5.91	4.04	18.9%	18.9%	—	K 12.8% · BB 23.6% · FIP 5.00
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	10	0	11	5.43	5.43	19.3%	15.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	14	0	15	5.16	5.06	20.3%	13.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRaimon Gomez (age 19) · Will Kobos (age 20) · Over Galue (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%19.3%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	13	5	32	146	21	16	2	38%	2.5	9.8%	13.7%	-3.9%	2.0%	5.06	5.11	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	13	5	32	146	21	16	2	38%	2.5	9.8%	13.7%	-3.9%	2.0%	5.06	5.11	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	13	5	32	146	21	16	2	38%	2.5	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	1.4%	5.06	4.10	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	9	0	11	53	10	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	23.6%	-10.8%	0.0%	5.91	5.00	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	9	0	11	53	10	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	23.6%	-10.8%	0.0%	5.91	5.00	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	9	0	11	53	10	10	0	0%	1.2	18.9%	18.9%	0.0%	0.0%	5.91	4.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	10	0	11	46	9	7	1	0%	1.1	19.3%	15.5%	3.8%	2.9%	5.43	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	29	0	30	128	26	17	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.9%	5.16	5.06	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	14	0	15	63	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.9%	5.16	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	8	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.9%	5.16	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	108	27	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.9%	5.16	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		22	5	43	199	21	32	3	23%	1.9	10.6%	16.3%	-5.7%	1.5%	5.27	5.08	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	23	200	933	99	152	14	23%	1.9	10.6%	16.3%	-5.7%	1.5%	5.27	5.08	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Burciaga (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	19.3%	15.5%	2.9%	—	5.06	20.3%	6.8%	30	-0.37	—	—	—
Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SW	4.90	17.3%	13.6%	2.8%	.265	3.28	19.5%	8.0%	48	-1.62	3.28	103	89
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	87
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	85
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	85
Anthony Cruz R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	16.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.237	4.19	18.2%	5.6%	180	-1.19	3.32	272	85
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	84
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	84
Carlos De Los Santos R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	18	SU	5.68	16.9%	16.0%	3.6%	.286	3.95	20.9%	3.2%	86	-1.73	3.67	173	84
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	83
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	83
Alejandro Lugo R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	20.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.265	4.96	16.7%	3.1%	98	+0.05	3.77	159	83
Doimil Perez R 2023 · 5.95 FIP	19	SU	5.95	17.8%	14.7%	4.5%	.322	5.36	16.6%	-2.0%	47	-0.59	3.32	139	82
Efrailin Ramos R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	18	SU	4.31	21.0%	15.7%	1.8%	.284	3.35	17.0%	6.4%	106	-0.96	3.11	142	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	82
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	81
Julio Bonilla R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	18	SW	4.26	16.0%	14.2%	1.3%	.250	5.19	14.3%	2.1%	49	+0.93	4.06	111	81
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	81
Kevin Camacho R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	19	SU	4.84	15.3%	12.9%	2.5%	.271	4.71	19.2%	0.8%	68	-0.13	4.12	113	81
Matthew Swain R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.9%	13.9%	1.6%	.362	5.19	20.6%	7.5%	115	+0.82	4.37	175	80