Fredy Penuelas

P DSL NYY Yankees

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	16	0	22	10.23	4.65	18.1%	18.1%	—	K 12.3% · BB 22.6% · FIP 5.53
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	12	2	52	1.56	2.54	27.7%	9.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.76
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYY	28	0	29	5.04	5.04	20.3%	13.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYY	23	0	24	4.85	4.77	21.1%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYY	36	0	38	4.63	4.50	22.2%	10.8%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJake Higginbotham (age 22) · Harry Gustin (age 22) · Daniel Gonzalez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%20.3%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	22	116	21	21	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	22.6%	-10.3%	1.1%	10.23	5.53	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	22	116	21	21	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	22.6%	-10.3%	1.1%	10.23	5.53	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	22	116	21	21	1	0%	1.4	18.1%	18.1%	0.0%	0.9%	10.23	4.65	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	2	52	202	56	19	2	17%	4.3	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	1.4%	1.56	3.76	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	2	52	202	56	19	2	17%	4.3	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	1.4%	1.56	3.76	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	2	52	202	56	19	2	17%	4.3	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	1.0%	1.56	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYY	28	0	29	122	25	16	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	49	207	44	25	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	49	0	52	218	48	23	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.63	4.50	+0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	51	0	54	226	52	23	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.32	+0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	231	54	22	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.29	4.19	+0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	53	0	56	234	56	22	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	53	0	56	234	56	21	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	4.09	+0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	231	56	21	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	23	0	24	101	21	12	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	36	0	38	160	36	17	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.63	4.50	+0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	43	0	45	190	44	19	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.32	+0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	47	0	49	207	49	20	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.29	4.19	+0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	49	0	51	215	51	20	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	53	20	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	4.09	+0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	53	20	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	0	310	1310	306	128	36	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	3.87	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	82	23	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		28	2	74	318	52	50	4	7%	2.6	16.5%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.14	4.41	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	5	200	859	142	135	11	7%	2.6	16.5%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.14	4.41	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fredy Penuelas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	20.3%	13.4%	2.9%	—	4.52	22.1%	11.2%	154	-0.52	—	—	—
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.28	335	80
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	79
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	79
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	79
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	78
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	77
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	77
Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.28 FIP	21	SU	4.28	19.2%	13.5%	2.0%	.354	5.03	22.4%	7.1%	98	+0.75	4.28	166	77
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	77
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	76
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	76
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	76
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	76
Johan Santana L 2000 · 4.98 FIP	21	SW	4.98	16.1%	13.6%	2.8%	.338	3.27	26.0%	17.4%	310	-1.71	2.76	2,026	76
Rovaldis Cabrera L 2019 · 5.41 FIP	19	SW	5.41	16.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	127	76
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	75
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	75
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	74
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	74
Inmer Lobo L 2024 · 4.94 FIP	20	SU	4.94	17.9%	13.8%	2.9%	.177	4.13	18.6%	7.1%	80	-0.81	2.57	151	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	51	23.0%	10.2%	1.07	4.42
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Will Ohman ('12)	1.8	50	21.8%	10.3%	1.07	4.28
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*