Sebastian Lopez — OGILVIE

Sebastian Lopez P DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 LHP 5'7" / 177 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%20.3%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	13.5%	5.6%	7.8%	2.9%	2.51	4.26	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	13.5%	5.6%	7.8%	2.9%	2.51	4.26	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	19.8%	4.5%	15.3%	1.8%	2.51	3.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	3.38	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	3.38	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.4	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	6	6	27	114	24	8	3	100%	4.5	21.1%	6.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	3	3	13	55	12	4	2	100%	4.3	21.1%	6.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	13	56	12	4	2	100%	4.4	21.1%	6.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.20	3.78	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	180	60	30	100%	4.3	21.1%	6.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.20	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		11	8	31	124	19	10	3	73%	2.8	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	2.6%	2.59	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	51	200	791	121	65	20	73%	2.8	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	2.6%	2.59	4.27	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	20.3%	6.7%	3.0%	—	4.16	21.1%	14.4%	27	-0.10	—	—	—
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	85
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	85
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	78
Robinson Ortiz L 2018 · 3.85 FIP	18	SP-	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.36	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.51	2.29	275	78
Zhiorman Imbriano L 2021 · 3.82 FIP	18	SP-	3.82	14.1%	6.5%	2.0%	.375	4.99	13.0%	-5.8%	83	+1.17	3.82	100	75
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	75
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	75
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Josh Dye L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	21	SP-	4.35	15.1%	4.1%	3.7%	.373	3.14	23.0%	14.9%	123	-1.21	2.79	238	73
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	73
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	73
Luifer Romero L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	18	SW	4.34	13.9%	6.6%	2.9%	.321	3.58	18.1%	4.7%	53	-0.76	3.08	106	71
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	71
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	70
Frankeli Arias L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	19	SW	3.87	16.9%	7.5%	2.3%	.281	5.03	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.16	3.87	298	69
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.33	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.25	3.10	312	69
Ryan Wilson L 2017 · 3.43 FIP	20	SP-	3.43	18.5%	8.8%	1.4%	.395	4.12	18.8%	7.9%	155	+0.69	3.43	222	68
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	68
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	68