Sebastian Lopez
P
DSL Cubs Red
Age 18
LHP
5'7" / 177 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%22.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 9 | 8 | 29 | 111 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 89% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.51 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 9 | 8 | 29 | 111 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 89% | 3.2 | 19.8% | 4.5% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 2.51 | 3.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | — | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 9 | 8 | 29 | 111 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 89% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.51 | 4.52 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 56 | 200 | 774 | 104 | 44 | 26 | 89% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.51 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sebastian Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.2% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.34 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.49 | 2.29 | 261 | 85 |
| Jordan Woods L 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 85 |
| Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 81 |
| Juan Rojas L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.65 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.23 | 15.9% | 2.4% | 164 | +0.58 | 2.74 | 279 | 80 |
| Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.82 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.26 | 14.3% | -0.5% | 78 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 143 | 80 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2029 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.10 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.22 | 3.63 | 362 | 78 |
| Francis Texido L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.92 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .260 | 5.62 | 15.6% | -3.7% | 258 | +1.70 | 3.92 | 309 | 78 |
| Dalton Lehnen L 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.95 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.61 | 15.8% | 2.9% | 189 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 222 | 78 |
| Johan Simon L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 77 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.19 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.14 | 3.19 | 435 | 77 |
| Riley Frey L 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .417 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 180 | +0.64 | 4.00 | 198 | 76 |
| Alberto Pacheco L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.27 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.06 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 239 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 414 | 76 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.75 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 330 | 75 |
| Cam Caminiti L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.26 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .320 | 4.10 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 68 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 138 | 74 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.14 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .303 | 5.26 | 17.9% | 3.4% | 302 | +1.12 | 4.14 | 328 | 73 |
| Yereny Teus L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.49 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 0.9% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.22 | 2.98 | 166 | 73 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.23 | 25.2% | 12.8% | 1.2% | .314 | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 49 | +1.13 | 3.23 | 109 | 73 |
| Luke Little L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .200 | 2.91 | 28.0% | 12.2% | 155 | -1.09 | 2.76 | 250 | 72 |
| James Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.47 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .327 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 91 | +1.40 | 2.31 | 455 | 72 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .353 | 4.88 | 11.8% | 3.1% | 248 | +0.65 | 4.23 | 294 | 72 |