Alessandro Rodriguez

C DSL NYY Bombers

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 176 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#688ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	16	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	15	.133/.133/.133	0	0	-61	—	.067/.067/.067
2026	17	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	181	.311/.480/.417	2	6	82	—	.210/.354/.266
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBNYY	291	.220/.303/.296	2	5	73	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBNYY	51	.225/.309/.314	1	1	79	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBNYY	124	.229/.313/.328	2	2	83	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%86

wOBA85

BB%82

K%81

wRC+78

Z-Con%75

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsAlirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18) · Tyler Rodriguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .300 / .294

PA94

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	16	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	133	133	133	267		167	20	0	121	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	132	41	8	0	2	37	27	6	6	0	311	480	417	897	106	358	15	20	402	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		118	27	0	78	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	143	30	5	0	1	26	33	6	6	0	210	354	266	620	56	236	18	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		91	27	0	78	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	133	133	133	267		167	20	0	121	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	143	30	5	0	1	26	33	6	6	0	210	354	266	620	56	252	18	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	132	41	8	0	2	37	27	6	6	0	311	480	417	897	106	358	15	20	402	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		118	27	0	78	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	147	30	5	0	1	26	33	6	6	0	204	354	259	613	54	236	18	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		118	27	0	78	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	181	147	30	5	0	1	26	33	6	6	0	204	354	259	613	54	236	18	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	291	258	58	10	2	2	27	68	4	5	1	220	303	296	599	76	288	23	9	276	73	-9	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	147	131	30	5	1	2	13	34	2	3	1	225	308	311	619	86	290	23	9	284	79	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	255	226	51	9	1	3	23	59	4	5	2	229	313	324	637	96	291	23	9	291	83	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2030	21	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	376	332	77	13	2	6	35	86	6	7	3	232	316	336	651	104	292	23	9	297	87	-6	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.9
2031	22	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	445	394	93	16	2	8	41	101	7	8	3	234	318	345	663	111	293	23	9	301	90	-5	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2032	23	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	445	394	93	16	2	8	41	101	7	8	3	237	320	353	673	117	294	23	9	305	92	-4	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2033	24	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	445	394	94	16	2	9	41	101	7	8	3	238	321	357	678	119	295	23	9	307	94	-3	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2034	25	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	445	394	94	16	2	9	41	101	7	8	3	239	321	360	682	121	295	23	9	308	95	-3	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2035	26	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	445	394	94	16	2	9	41	101	7	8	3	239	322	362	684	123	295	23	9	309	95	-3	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	445	394	93	16	2	9	41	101	7	8	3	238	321	359	680	121	294	23	9	307	94	-3	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2037	28	MLB MLE	NYY	63%	445	394	92	15	2	9	41	102	7	8	4	236	319	354	673	118	293	23	9	305	92	-4	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	445	394	92	15	2	9	41	104	7	7	4	233	316	348	663	115	292	23	9	301	90	-5	-0	-1	+8	+10	1.1
2039	30	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	445	395	91	15	2	8	40	105	7	7	5	230	312	340	652	110	290	24	9	296	86	-7	-1	-2	+8	+10	0.8
2040	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	426	379	85	14	2	7	38	102	6	6	6	226	307	330	636	104	287	24	9	290	82	-9	-1	-3	+8	+9	0.4
2041	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	407	362	80	13	2	6	36	100	6	6	10	220	301	317	618	97	283	25	9	282	77	-11	-3	-4	+7	+9	-0.1
2028	19	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	51	45	11	2	0	1	5	12	1	1	0	225	309	314	622	88	290	24	10	285	79	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	124	110	26	4	1	2	11	29	2	2	1	229	313	328	641	98	291	23	9	293	83	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	204	180	42	7	1	3	19	47	3	4	1	233	316	339	656	107	292	23	9	298	87	-3	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	252	223	53	9	1	5	23	57	4	5	2	235	319	350	668	114	293	23	9	303	90	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2032	23	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	256	227	53	9	1	5	23	58	4	5	2	238	320	358	679	121	294	23	9	307	92	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2033	24	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	254	225	53	9	1	5	23	58	4	5	2	239	322	363	684	123	295	23	9	309	94	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2034	25	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	252	223	53	9	1	5	23	57	4	5	2	240	322	366	688	126	295	23	9	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2035	26	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	269	238	56	9	1	6	25	61	4	5	2	240	323	368	690	127	295	23	9	311	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2036	27	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	277	245	58	10	1	6	26	63	4	5	2	239	322	365	686	126	295	23	9	310	94	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2037	28	MLB CTX	NYY	63%	282	250	59	10	1	6	26	65	4	5	2	237	319	360	679	123	293	23	9	307	92	-3	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.8
2038	29	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	289	257	60	10	1	6	26	67	4	5	3	234	317	353	669	119	292	23	9	303	90	-4	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2039	30	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	289	257	60	10	1	6	26	68	4	5	3	231	313	344	657	113	290	24	9	298	86	-5	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2040	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	277	246	56	9	1	5	25	66	4	4	4	227	308	334	642	107	287	24	9	292	82	-6	-1	-2	+5	+6	0.3
2041	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	265	236	51	8	1	4	23	65	4	4	6	221	301	321	622	100	283	25	9	284	77	-7	-2	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3341	2962	691	115	13	65	304	773	50	60	32	233	315	347	662	113	293	23	9	302	88	-43	-1	-7	+60	+72	8.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	135	22	3	13	59	150	10	12	6	234	316	351	667	116	293	23	9	302	88	-8	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5906	5219	1209	203	27	104	548	1357	94	105	53	232	316	341	656	109	292	23	9	299	88	-76	-1	-10	+102	+124	14.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	132	22	3	11	60	149	10	12	6	230	313	336	649	106	289	23	9	299	88	-9	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 181 PAwOBA .406 → .289 (−117)K% 14.9% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.92%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.44%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.42%
HBP% /PA	3.31%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.34%
Singles /BIP	29.52%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.990	×1.008	20.03%
Doubles /BIP	7.62%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.990	×1.008	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.990	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.90%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.90%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .406 → .289; ISO .106 → .065; BABIP .358 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 15 PAwOBA .117 → .078 (−39)K% 20.0% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	24.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.985	×0.680	—	×1.022	11.76%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.019	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.090	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .117 → .078; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Johnny Edwards'61-'74 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,132 PA	7.7	5,132	81	15	240*	313*	380*	+92	+0	16.7	16.2
/162	664	10	2	+11.9	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 16
#3Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#4Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#5Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.2	3,433	62	60	234	313	346	+61	+36	10.9	9.1
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+7.0	2.1	pk7: 7
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alessandro Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	218/300/294	75	288	1	2	23%	9%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	42→51	37→50	51→55	58	197/311/267	70	262	5	9	24%	13%	72	-0.7	215/290/330	115	309	10	14	31%	9%	77	-0.3	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Deivy Grullón 2014 · A	18	46→45	38→55	48→30	44	218/266/297	79	275	4	4	22%	6%	59	-1.6	211/252/305	94	288	8	2	28%	5%	56	-1.9	236/277/397	161	310	22	0	31%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Kleyver Salazar 2024 · A	18	40→50	37→50	48→40	52	188/274/261	73	244	3	4	23%	10%	55	-1.9	194/274/283	89	264	8	4	27%	9%	60	-1.6	200/286/298	98	264	10	4	26%	10%	67	-0.6
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Andres Melendez 2019 · A	18	46	37→50	49→40	48	215/276/292	77	257	4	7	18%	6%	62	-1.4	205/273/296	91	276	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	189/272/303	114	277	10	2	33%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	47→57	36→45	49→50	50	218/277/294	76	258	2	12	16%	7%	63	-1.4	229/275/301	72	282	3	12	19%	5%	63	-1.4	276/322/383	106	335	4	17	18%	5%	96	+0.8
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	43→50	38→50	51→65	51	204/279/286	82	265	5	10	24%	9%	62	-1.4	201/264/285	84	268	5	34	25%	7%	56	-1.9	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	44→50	51	186/280/245	59	267	2	10	28%	10%	55	-2.0	186/259/249	63	277	2	15	31%	8%	47	-2.6	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5

Alessandro Rodriguez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps