Hendrick Caña

P FCL Cardinals

Age 19 LHP 6'0" / 181 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKSTL	11	4	37	2.43	3.78	23.3%	12.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.14
2026	18	MIX2 levels	9	7	29	4.60	1.70	29.4%	9.6%	—	K 19.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.58
2027PROJ	19	MLBSTL	3	3	18	4.71	4.71	21.1%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBSTL	3	3	17	4.58	4.52	21.8%	10.4%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsKelvin Rosario (age 17) · Thomas Ireland (age 21) · Deivi Diaz (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	2.5%	2.43	5.14	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	2.5%	2.43	5.14	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	1.9%	2.43	3.78	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	7	29	136	40	13	0	78%	3.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	0.0%	4.60	2.58	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	7	29	136	40	13	0	78%	3.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	0.0%	4.60	2.58	—
2026	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	7	29	136	40	13	0	78%	3.3	29.4%	9.6%	19.9%	0.0%	4.60	1.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	STL	3	3	18	76	16	9	2	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	35	148	32	15	4	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.52	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	17	72	16	7	2	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	73	16	8	2	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.14	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	186	93	23	100%	5.4	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		20	11	66	295	52	37	4	55%	3.3	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	1.4%	3.39	3.96	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	889	157	113	12	55%	3.3	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	1.4%	3.39	3.96	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hendrick Caña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.1%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.52	21.8%	11.4%	35	-0.19	—	—	—
Kelvin Rosario L 2024 · 4.69 FIP	17	SP-	4.69	16.7%	11.2%	2.9%	.280	6.63	15.9%	-2.9%	54	+1.94	4.34	126	81
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	81
Deivi Diaz L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	19	SP-	3.73	20.4%	11.6%	1.6%	.369	4.51	13.5%	-2.3%	57	+0.78	3.73	161	80
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	80
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	80
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	80
Brock Selvidge L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	19	SP-	3.70	19.9%	11.7%	1.5%	.321	3.79	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.09	3.07	330	79
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	78
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	78
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	78
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	78
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.33	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.25	3.10	312	77
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	77
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	76
Rafael Monsion L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.19	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.06	4.01	159	76
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	75
Frankeli Arias L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	19	SW	3.87	16.9%	7.5%	2.3%	.281	5.03	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.16	3.87	298	75
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	75
Hector Acosta L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	19	SP-	5.05	15.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.313	5.38	6.6%	-2.9%	47	+0.33	3.57	123	75
Gabriel Reyes L 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	3.96	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.07	1.74	233	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.5%	10.7%	1.11	4.62
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*