Aneury Montilla — OGILVIE

Aneury Montilla P FCL Phillies

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	10	35	168	39	17	2	77%	2.7	15.8%	12.6%	3.1%	2.0%	6.43	4.45	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	10	35	168	39	17	2	77%	2.7	15.8%	12.6%	3.1%	2.0%	6.43	4.45	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	10	35	168	39	17	2	77%	2.7	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	1.2%	6.43	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	19	0	30	148	29	19	3	0%	1.6	13.3%	16.0%	-2.7%	2.8%	6.00	5.57	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	19	0	30	148	29	19	3	0%	1.6	13.3%	16.0%	-2.7%	2.8%	6.00	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	PHI	19	0	30	148	29	19	3	0%	1.6	19.6%	12.8%	6.8%	2.0%	6.00	4.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PHI	32	0	33	140	30	15	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.66	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	PHI	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	69	15	7	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	86	25	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		32	10	65	316	46	45	7	31%	2.0	14.6%	14.2%	0.4%	2.4%	6.23	4.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	31	200	972	142	138	23	31%	2.0	14.6%	14.2%	0.4%	2.4%	6.23	4.97	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aneury Montilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.3%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.66	21.1%	10.2%	33	-0.23	—	—	—
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	81
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	80
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	79
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	78
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	78
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	78
Francisco Villegas L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	19	SW	4.55	17.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.256	5.85	17.9%	3.1%	59	+1.30	4.55	131	77
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Joey Marciano L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	15.1%	11.8%	1.2%	.266	4.99	16.3%	6.1%	153	+1.02	3.65	330	77
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	76
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	76
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	76
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	76
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	76
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	75
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	75
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.30	335	75
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	75
Felix Carvallo L 2015 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	17.1%	9.8%	3.0%	.323	4.60	17.7%	4.7%	67	+0.04	4.56	132	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.8%	11.3%	1.13	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19