Luis Cepeda

P DSL Arizona Black

Age 19 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Arizona R…	12	7	39	3.43	3.00	23.4%	14.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.11
2026	18	ROKDSL Arizona B…	11	8	28	6.51	5.38	15.7%	19.3%	—	K 10.7% · BB 24.1% · FIP 6.35
2027PROJ	19	MLBARI	4	4	19	6.03	6.03	18.3%	19.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBARI	4	4	18	5.64	5.50	19.6%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSandro Bargallo (age 19) · Gabe Morales (age 19) · Brandon Herbold (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131140vR 148

ERA6.03

FIP6.03

K%18.3%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%-1.5%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	7	39	175	41	26	0	58%	3.3	15.9%	18.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	3.43	4.11	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	7	39	175	41	26	0	58%	3.3	15.9%	18.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	3.43	4.11	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	7	39	175	41	26	0	58%	3.3	23.4%	14.9%	8.6%	0.0%	3.43	3.00	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	8	28	140	22	27	2	73%	2.5	10.7%	24.1%	-13.4%	2.0%	6.51	6.35	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	8	28	140	22	27	2	73%	2.5	10.7%	24.1%	-13.4%	2.0%	6.51	6.35	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	11	8	28	140	22	27	2	73%	2.5	15.7%	19.3%	-3.6%	1.4%	6.51	5.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	ARI	4	4	19	80	15	16	2	100%	4.8	18.3%	19.8%	-1.5%	2.9%	6.03	6.03	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	37	157	31	26	4	100%	4.7	19.6%	16.7%	2.9%	2.8%	5.64	5.50	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	18	76	15	13	2	100%	4.5	19.6%	16.7%	2.9%	2.8%	5.64	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	15	13	2	100%	4.6	19.6%	16.7%	2.9%	2.8%	5.64	5.12	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	164	142	22	100%	4.6	19.6%	16.7%	2.9%	2.8%	5.64	5.12	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		23	15	67	315	43	66	3	65%	2.9	13.6%	21.0%	-7.4%	0.9%	4.70	5.10	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	45	200	940	128	198	8	65%	2.9	13.6%	21.0%	-7.4%	0.9%	4.70	5.10	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.03	18.3%	19.8%	2.9%	—	5.50	19.6%	2.9%	37	-0.53	—	—	—
Sandro Bargallo L 2021 · 6.70 FIP	19	SP-	6.70	15.8%	26.5%	2.9%	.308	4.91	19.2%	-3.1%	82	-1.79	4.16	129	86
Gabe Morales L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	19.3%	21.0%	1.8%	.313	4.23	22.9%	8.7%	124	-0.89	2.92	268	85
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	83
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	82
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	80
Dylan MacLean L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	19	SP	6.38	13.6%	27.9%	1.6%	.271	4.11	15.7%	5.3%	101	-2.27	3.45	282	79
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	77
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	77
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	76
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	76
Junior Tavera L 2024 · 6.14 FIP	17	SP-	6.14	18.0%	31.6%	1.0%	.385	5.41	16.6%	-2.3%	85	-0.73	5.12	101	76
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	76
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP	6.27	17.4%	30.7%	1.4%	.396	5.46	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.81	3.98	184	76
Noel Vela L 2018 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP-	5.10	17.0%	16.0%	2.6%	.404	4.61	20.2%	5.2%	98	-0.49	4.48	255	76
Alexuan Vega L 2018 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	11.5%	21.1%	3.6%	.306	5.64	13.6%	-7.7%	43	-1.16	5.05	111	75
Jacob Heatherly L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.47	192	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	75
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	75
Reinold Navarro L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	21.7%	22.6%	1.4%	.211	4.32	29.4%	5.7%	95	-0.60	3.55	119	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.2%	17.7%	1.11	5.77
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*