Luis Gamez — OGILVIE

Luis Gamez P ACL Dodgers

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 176 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%21.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$37M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	2	25	104	26	7	0	20%	2.5	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	0.0%	2.16	2.73	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	2	25	104	26	7	0	20%	2.5	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	0.0%	2.16	2.73	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	10	2	25	104	26	7	0	20%	2.5	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	0.0%	2.16	1.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	21	11	74	307	100	39	8	52%	3.5	22.9%	15.4%	7.4%	3.5%	3.39	5.04	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	21	11	74	307	100	39	8	52%	3.5	22.9%	15.4%	7.4%	3.5%	3.39	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	LAD	13	8	43	177	64	20	3	62%	3.3	36.2%	11.3%	24.9%	1.7%	2.72	2.41	—
2026	19	A RAW	LAD	8	3	31	130	36	19	5	38%	3.9	27.7%	14.6%	13.1%	3.8%	4.31	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAD	73	0	76	323	71	27	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.26	+0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	76	0	80	339	77	28	10	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAD	80	0	84	356	83	28	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.10	4.01	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAD	83	0	87	369	89	28	10	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	2.7%	3.98	3.89	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAD	85	0	90	378	94	28	10	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.4%	17.4%	2.7%	3.87	3.80	+0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAD	86	0	91	383	96	28	10	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	2.7%	3.80	3.75	+0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAD	86	0	91	383	97	28	10	0%	1.1	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.7%	3.75	3.72	+0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAD	85	0	89	377	95	27	10	0%	1.1	25.3%	7.3%	18.0%	2.7%	3.76	3.76	+0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAD	82	0	87	366	92	27	10	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.81	3.85	+0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAD	79	0	83	349	87	27	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+0.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	78	328	87	23	10	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.1%	19.4%	3.2%	3.89	3.88	+0.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAD	69	0	72	306	80	23	10	0%	1.1	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.4%	4.01	4.09	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	LAD	36	0	38	160	35	14	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.33	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	55	0	58	245	55	20	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.24	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAD	68	0	71	300	70	24	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.16	4.07	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAD	75	0	79	334	81	25	9	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	3.95	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAD	79	0	83	350	87	26	10	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.4%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.86	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAD	81	0	85	359	90	26	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	2.8%	3.86	3.81	+0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAD	82	0	86	363	92	26	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.8%	3.81	3.78	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAD	81	0	85	359	91	26	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.3%	18.0%	2.8%	3.82	3.82	+0.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAD	78	0	82	346	87	26	10	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.4%	17.8%	2.9%	3.88	3.92	+0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAD	75	0	79	334	83	26	10	0%	1.1	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	3.1%	3.98	4.05	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAD	70	0	74	312	83	22	10	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.1%	19.4%	3.3%	3.96	3.95	+0.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAD	66	0	69	291	76	22	10	0%	1.0	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.5%	4.09	4.17	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		845	0	887	3747	929	282	111	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.5%	17.3%	3.0%	3.99	3.59	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	64	25	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.5%	17.3%	3.0%	3.99	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		31	13	99	411	88	56	11	42%	3.2	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	2.6%	3.08	4.46	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	26	200	828	177	113	22	42%	3.2	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	2.6%	3.08	4.46	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gamez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	21.5%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.14	22.8%	14.5%	241	-0.22	—	—	—
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	84
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	83
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	81
Angel Jimenez R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	19	SP-	3.24	20.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.257	3.41	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.17	3.24	223	80
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	80
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	80
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	80
Winston Santos R 2021 · 3.19 FIP	19	SP-	3.19	18.3%	8.4%	1.0%	.261	4.43	19.0%	11.3%	317	+1.24	1.82	446	80
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	79
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	79
Redinson Gomez R 2023 · 3.21 FIP	19	SW	3.21	18.4%	6.2%	1.6%	.273	4.33	17.9%	2.8%	39	+1.12	3.21	157	79
Domingo Pena R 2017 · 4.99 FIP	19	SP-	4.99	20.4%	8.3%	4.7%	.250	5.87	11.9%	2.8%	43	+0.88	3.34	165	79
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	78
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	78
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	78
Layonel Ovalles R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	19	SW	3.57	23.1%	10.2%	2.1%	.333	4.62	17.4%	3.0%	146	+1.05	2.60	227	78
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	78
Yunior Marte R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP-	4.22	16.4%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	4.05	18.1%	8.5%	241	-0.17	3.21	297	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	79	24.6%	7.6%	1.10	3.95
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98