Freddy Contreras

P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 18 RHP 5'11" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTFG #289MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	16	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	10	9	30	3.30	1.93	29.6%	10.4%	—	K 20.1% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.05
2027PROJ	18	MLBKC	10	10	56	4.46	4.46	24.0%	10.9%	0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBKC	7	7	41	4.22	4.16	24.3%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	20	MLBKC	16	16	86	4.09	4.01	24.6%	9.2%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$8M2033Ext$14M2034Ext$21M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control50Command55FB velo60

CompsMarco Raya (age 19) · Luis Arejula (age 19) · Shawndrick Oduber (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%24.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—50

CMD2555

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	29.6%	10.4%	19.2%	0.0%	3.30	1.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	KC	10	10	56	236	57	26	7	100%	5.6	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	84	356	87	36	10	100%	5.6	24.3%	10.0%	14.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.28	+0.6
2029	20	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	118	500	123	46	14	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.13	+1.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	158	669	166	58	19	100%	5.5	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.01	+1.7
2031	22	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	175	739	190	60	20	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.7%	3.94	3.83	+2.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	201	58	20	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	2.7%	3.79	3.70	+2.6
2033	24	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	180	760	205	57	20	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.60	+2.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	KC	31	31	180	760	208	56	20	100%	5.8	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.6%	3.60	3.55	+2.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	180	760	210	55	20	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.55	3.52	+3.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	177	749	207	55	20	100%	5.9	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.56	3.56	+2.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	172	726	200	55	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.8%	3.61	3.65	+2.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	164	694	189	54	20	100%	6.1	27.3%	7.8%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.78	+2.2
2039	30	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	652	175	52	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.1%	18.9%	3.1%	3.86	3.95	+1.7
2040	31	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	608	161	51	20	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.4%	4.04	4.16	+1.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	41	173	42	17	5	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.22	4.16	+0.3
2029	20	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	86	363	89	33	10	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.01	+0.8
2030	21	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	134	566	141	49	15	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.6%	3.98	3.90	+1.4
2031	22	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	157	663	170	53	17	100%	5.4	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.5%	3.83	3.72	+2.0
2032	23	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	167	705	187	54	18	100%	5.6	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.59	+2.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	169	714	193	53	18	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	2.5%	3.57	3.49	+2.6
2034	25	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	171	722	198	53	18	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.4%	3.49	3.44	+2.8
2035	26	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	171	722	199	53	18	100%	6.1	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.4%	3.44	3.41	+2.8
2036	27	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	168	709	196	52	18	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.5%	3.45	3.45	+2.7
2037	28	MLB CTX	KC	27	27	163	688	189	52	18	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.6%	3.49	3.53	+2.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	156	659	179	51	18	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.8%	19.5%	2.7%	3.59	3.66	+2.1
2039	30	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	147	621	167	50	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.1%	18.9%	2.9%	3.73	3.82	+1.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	137	578	153	49	18	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.1%	3.90	4.02	+1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	334	1867	7883	2104	620	205	100%	5.6	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	2.6%	3.67	3.27	+37.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	225	66	22	100%	5.6	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	2.6%	3.67	3.27	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		10	9	30	125	25	16	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+27.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	60	200	833	168	108	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	24.0%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.11	24.6%	15.5%	361	-0.35	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.42	19.8%	8.6%	254	-0.35	3.99	383	86
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	83
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	81
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	80
Jordy Vargas R 2022 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	.239	4.64	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.29	3.02	290	80
Jordarlin Mendoza R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	18	SP	3.33	23.3%	10.6%	1.6%	.325	5.22	19.7%	-2.2%	54	+1.89	3.33	147	79
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	79
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	78
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	78
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	78
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	78
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	78
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	77
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	77
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	77
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	77
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	76
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	76
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	76
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	26.5%	8.0%	1.09	3.82
Virgil Trucks ('41-'58, 45 WAR*)	13.4	179	25.8%*	8.1%*	1.12*	3.65*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Whit Wyatt ('29-'45, 23 WAR*)	8.8	117	26.1%*	8.3%*	1.11*	4.02*
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77