Kevin Concepcion

Kevin Concepcion P ACL Rockies

Age 18 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%19.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	8	38	157	31	13	4	73%	3.5	13.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.1%	3.79	5.54	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	8	38	157	31	13	4	73%	3.5	13.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.1%	3.79	5.54	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	8	38	157	31	13	4	73%	3.5	19.7%	8.3%	11.5%	2.5%	3.79	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	7	29	145	25	12	4	70%	2.9	11.7%	10.3%	1.4%	3.9%	8.16	5.54	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	7	29	145	25	12	4	70%	2.9	11.7%	10.3%	1.4%	3.9%	8.16	5.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	COL	10	7	29	145	25	12	4	70%	2.9	17.2%	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	8.16	4.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	36	152	31	14	5	100%	4.5	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.59	+0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	18	76	16	7	2	100%	4.5	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.59	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	75	15	7	2	100%	4.4	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.21	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	170	79	23	100%	4.4	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		21	15	67	302	38	31	12	71%	3.2	12.6%	10.3%	2.3%	4.0%	5.67	5.54	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	45	200	906	114	94	36	71%	3.2	12.6%	10.3%	2.3%	4.0%	5.67	5.54	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Concepcion (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	19.6%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.59	20.5%	11.0%	36	-0.19	—	—	—
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	84
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	83
Jose Espada R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	18	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.4%	3.1%	.234	5.09	9.6%	3.5%	53	+0.67	4.09	355	83
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	81
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	81
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	81
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	81
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	81
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	80
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	80
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	80
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	80
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Donal Montas R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	20	SP-	5.29	17.3%	9.1%	4.5%	.217	5.03	10.2%	-3.8%	91	-0.26	4.10	156	80
Tyler Driver R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP-	5.31	14.3%	8.3%	4.3%	.281	5.21	15.0%	2.0%	100	-0.10	5.17	180	80
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	80
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.2%	9.7%	1.16	4.70
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43