Ismael Obregon
P
FCL Astros
Age 18
RHP
5'11" / 181 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%22.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 4 | 39 | 173 | 41 | 15 | 3 | 31% | 3.0 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.63 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 4 | 39 | 173 | 41 | 15 | 3 | 31% | 3.0 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 4.12 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 14 | 0 | 24 | 119 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.1% | 14.7% | -1.6% | 5.9% | 7.40 | 7.08 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 48 | 218 | 45 | 23 | 8 | — | — | 20.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.93 | 5.77 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.90 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 83 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 27 | 4 | 64 | 292 | 44 | 36 | 12 | 15% | 2.4 | 14.9% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.63 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 13 | 200 | 917 | 137 | 114 | 37 | 15% | 2.4 | 14.9% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.63 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ismael Obregon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.28 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 25 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.87 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.41 | 4.13 | 179 | 86 |
| Kevin Malisheski R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .333 | 4.81 | 12.0% | 0.1% | 122 | -0.18 | 3.81 | 198 | 82 |
| Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 80 |
| Antwone Kelly R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.58 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 3.92 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 216 | -0.66 | 3.19 | 345 | 80 |
| Chris Gau R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 80 |
| Jake Elliott R 2029 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 80 |
| Angel Guillen R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.92 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .411 | 3.44 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 78 | -0.48 | 3.37 | 181 | 79 |
| Joangel Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .312 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 3.4% | 93 | +0.49 | 3.96 | 127 | 79 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2028 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.28 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.96 | 3.32 | 124 | 79 |
| Danny Dopico R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 79 |
| David Davalillo R 2028 · 3.24 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.24 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .292 | 3.32 | 21.0% | 12.0% | 262 | +0.08 | 2.94 | 279 | 79 |
| Matt Walker R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.90 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.69 | 2.42 | 211 | 79 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.41 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +0.82 | 4.59 | 120 | 78 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 78 |
| Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.88 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .316 | 4.19 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.31 | 3.29 | 203 | 78 |
| Anderson Cardenas R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 18 | SW | 5.23 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .235 | 3.34 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 38 | -1.89 | 3.34 | 109 | 78 |
| Ricardo Brizuela R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.52 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.66 | 3.35 | 246 | 77 |
| David Matoma R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .259 | 5.85 | 14.9% | -6.1% | 62 | +1.96 | 3.58 | 101 | 77 |
| Juan Jimenez R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.45 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .327 | 5.51 | 17.2% | 2.6% | 80 | +2.06 | 3.45 | 115 | 77 |
| Leury Tejada R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.03 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .286 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 39 | +1.03 | 4.03 | 183 | 77 |