Ismael Obregon
P
DSL Astros Blue
+0.2
WAR
Age 18
RHP
5'11" / 181 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.7 · 2034
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.3%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2034
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 4 | 39 | 173 | 41 | 15 | 3 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | HOU | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.65 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 26.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 47 | 13 | 5 | 26.5% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.69 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 45 | 13 | 5 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 4 | 39 | 173 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.62 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 20 | 200 | 880 | 142 | 97 | 25 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.62 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ismael Obregon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 111 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 90 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.41 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.37 | 4.04 | 104 | 89 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 88 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 87 |
| Dahian Santos R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.91 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 4.7% | .316 | 4.72 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 161 | -0.19 | 4.52 | 197 | 86 |
| Andry Lara R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.94 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.76 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 334 | -0.18 | 4.56 | 425 | 86 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 85 |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.96 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.89 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 187 | 85 |
| Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 85 |
| Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.88 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .316 | 4.21 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.33 | 3.31 | 182 | 85 |
| Matt Walker R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 84 |
| Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.93 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .323 | 4.61 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 123 | +0.68 | 3.93 | 163 | 84 |
| Kevin Malisheski R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .333 | 4.81 | 12.0% | 0.1% | 122 | -0.18 | 3.81 | 198 | 84 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 7.30 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +2.83 | 2.62 | 179 | 84 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.05 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 3.67 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 127 | -0.38 | 3.29 | 189 | 83 |
| Danny Dopico R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 83 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2029 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 83 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2028 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 83 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 83 |
| Angel Guillen R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.92 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .411 | 3.44 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 78 | -0.48 | 3.37 | 181 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||