Greiber Mendez — OGILVIE

Greiber Mendez P Bradenton Marauders

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%14.9%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%-2.2%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0%	0.3	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	27.00	1.69	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0%	0.3	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	27.00	-2.90	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	16	0	33	152	35	14	3	0%	2.1	15.7%	11.5%	4.1%	3.1%	3.78	4.92	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	16	0	33	152	35	14	3	0%	2.1	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	2.0%	3.78	3.43	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	16	1	28	118	33	11	1	6%	1.8	19.0%	11.7%	7.4%	1.2%	1.27	3.64	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	16	1	28	118	33	11	1	6%	1.8	19.0%	11.7%	7.4%	1.2%	1.27	3.64	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	16	1	28	118	33	11	1	6%	1.8	28.0%	9.3%	18.6%	0.8%	1.27	2.39	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	49	213	53	25	6	0%	2.0	17.5%	14.4%	3.1%	3.9%	3.49	5.58	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	49	213	53	25	6	0%	2.0	17.5%	14.4%	3.1%	3.9%	3.49	5.58	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	49	213	53	25	6	0%	2.0	24.9%	11.7%	13.1%	2.8%	3.49	4.06	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	35	3	75	313	65	40	4	9%	2.1	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	1.8%	3.50	4.69	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	35	3	75	313	65	40	4	9%	2.1	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	1.8%	3.50	4.69	—
2025	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	35	3	75	313	65	40	4	9%	2.1	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	1.3%	3.50	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	37	0	62	280	54	20	11	0%	1.7	14.5%	8.4%	6.1%	5.0%	5.55	5.70	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	37	0	62	280	54	20	11	0%	1.7	14.5%	8.4%	6.1%	5.0%	5.55	5.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	PIT	26	0	42	197	37	16	6	0%	1.6	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.0%	6.48	4.21	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	PIT	11	0	20	83	17	4	5	0%	1.8	20.5%	4.8%	15.7%	6.0%	3.60	5.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	70	294	50	44	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.1%	1.8%	2.8%	5.62	5.52	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	68	0	71	301	54	42	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.36	5.25	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	69	0	72	305	57	40	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.1%	5.5%	2.8%	5.19	5.10	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	69	0	72	305	58	40	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.8%	5.10	5.06	-0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	68	0	71	301	57	39	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.1%	5.9%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	69	292	55	39	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.18	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	63	0	66	279	52	37	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.4%	5.2%	3.1%	5.25	5.31	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	59	0	62	262	48	36	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.7%	4.5%	3.3%	5.39	5.49	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	32	0	34	144	24	22	4	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.1%	1.8%	2.8%	5.62	5.52	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	48	0	50	211	38	29	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	13.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.36	5.25	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	56	0	59	249	46	33	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.1%	5.5%	2.8%	5.19	5.10	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	60	0	63	266	50	35	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.8%	5.10	5.06	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	51	35	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.1%	5.9%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	51	36	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.18	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	58	0	61	258	48	35	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.4%	5.2%	3.1%	5.25	5.31	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	55	0	58	245	45	34	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.7%	4.5%	3.3%	5.39	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		432	0	453	1914	354	257	56	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	4.85	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	113	25	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		130	4	247	1082	173	133	34	3%	1.9	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	3.1%	3.82	5.03	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	3	200	875	140	107	28	3%	1.9	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	3.1%	3.82	5.03	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Greiber Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	14.9%	17.0%	2.9%	—	5.29	17.9%	3.9%	213	-0.66	—	—	—
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	91
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	87
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	86
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	86
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	86
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	85
Mario Alcantara R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SU	4.83	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.64	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.19	4.36	171	85
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	85
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	84
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	84
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	84
Miguel Guerrero R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	22	SU	5.35	17.0%	13.9%	3.5%	.324	4.56	18.1%	7.8%	57	-0.79	4.56	171	84
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	84
Jonathan Guzman R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	22	SU	5.09	15.9%	17.7%	2.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	83
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	83
Salvador Justo R 2017 · 5.57 FIP	22	SU	5.57	12.8%	17.3%	2.5%	.328	5.22	15.7%	4.6%	107	-0.35	4.32	218	83
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	18.1%	13.8%	1.13	5.33
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58