Manuel Vasquez — OGILVIE

Manuel VasquezC DSL Orioles Orange

Age 18 R/R 5'11" / 183 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 46 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .279 / .216

PA46

HR0

K%28

BB%9

BABIP279

ISO24

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.3	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$39M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	66	8	1	0	0	10	29	1	4	1	121	247	136	383	15	216	37	13	185	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	60	11	1	0	0	15	19	1	4	1	183	351	200	551	17	268	24	19	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	BAL	—	70	61	12	1	0	0	6	16	3	2	1	197	300	213	513	16	267	23	9	245	46	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
YTD	18	ROK	BAL	—	70	58	16	2	0	0	9	11	3	2	1	276	400	310	710	34	340	16	13	339	118	+1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.5
ROS	18	ROK	BAL	0%	46	41	8	1	0	0	4	13	1	1	0	192	279	216	495	24	286	28	9	258	55	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	18	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		289	—	—	248	48	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	BAL	—	70	62	12	1	0	0	6	16	3	2	1	194	300	210	510	16	261	23	9	245	46	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
TOT	18	ROK	BAL	—	116	102	20	2	0	0	10	29	4	3	1	195	291	214	506	19	271	25	9	250	50	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	BAL	34%	165	147	33	5	1	2	14	43	3	2	1	224	305	313	618	88	290	26	8	270	65	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2028	20	MLB	BAL	48%	309	275	61	9	2	4	26	80	5	5	1	222	301	313	613	91	292	26	8	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+6	+9	0.5
2029	21	MLB	BAL	54%	420	375	83	13	2	6	35	107	7	6	2	221	300	315	614	93	293	25	8	285	76	-11	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.9
2030	22	MLB	BAL	57%	499	445	99	15	2	8	42	126	9	7	2	222	302	319	622	97	294	25	8	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.2
2031	23	MLB	BAL	58%	520	462	106	16	3	9	44	131	9	8	2	229	309	335	644	106	295	25	8	292	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2032	24	MLB	BAL	57%	520	462	107	16	3	10	44	131	9	8	2	232	311	344	655	113	296	25	8	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	25	MLB	BAL	57%	520	462	107	16	3	10	44	131	9	8	2	232	311	344	655	113	296	25	8	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	26	MLB	BAL	57%	520	462	107	16	3	10	44	131	9	8	2	232	311	344	655	113	296	25	8	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2035	27	MLB	BAL	55%	520	461	105	16	2	10	45	131	9	8	2	228	309	336	645	108	296	25	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2036	28	MLB	BAL	55%	520	461	105	16	2	10	45	132	9	7	2	228	309	336	645	108	295	25	9	295	84	-9	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2037	29	MLB	BAL	53%	520	460	105	16	2	10	46	133	9	7	2	228	311	337	648	109	294	26	9	293	83	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2038	30	MLB	BAL	53%	520	460	103	15	2	9	46	134	9	6	2	224	307	324	631	100	293	26	9	291	81	-11	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2039	31	MLB	BAL	52%	504	446	100	15	2	9	44	131	9	5	1	224	307	327	634	103	291	26	9	286	77	-13	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2027	19	MLB	BAL	34%	57	51	12	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	235	316	333	649	98	294	26	9	261	58	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	BAL	48%	150	133	31	5	1	2	13	39	3	2	1	233	315	331	646	98	296	26	9	270	64	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB	BAL	54%	228	203	46	7	1	4	19	58	4	3	1	227	305	330	635	103	297	25	8	276	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2030	22	MLB	BAL	57%	282	251	57	9	1	5	24	71	5	4	1	227	307	331	638	104	298	25	9	280	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	23	MLB	BAL	58%	299	267	61	10	1	5	25	75	5	4	1	228	306	330	636	101	299	25	8	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	24	MLB	BAL	57%	296	264	61	9	1	6	25	74	5	4	1	231	310	341	650	110	300	25	8	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	25	MLB	BAL	57%	295	263	61	9	1	6	25	74	5	4	1	232	311	342	653	110	300	25	8	286	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2034	26	MLB	BAL	57%	294	262	60	9	1	6	25	74	5	4	1	229	308	340	648	111	300	25	9	287	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2035	27	MLB	BAL	55%	289	257	59	9	1	6	25	73	5	4	1	230	310	342	653	113	300	25	9	287	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2036	28	MLB	BAL	55%	286	254	59	9	1	6	25	72	5	4	1	232	313	346	660	114	299	25	9	286	77	-7	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.6
2037	29	MLB	BAL	53%	278	247	57	9	1	5	24	71	5	4	1	231	312	336	648	105	298	26	9	284	76	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2038	30	MLB	BAL	53%	274	243	55	8	1	5	24	71	5	3	1	226	309	329	638	103	297	26	9	281	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2039	31	MLB	BAL	52%	263	233	53	8	1	5	23	69	5	3	1	227	310	335	645	107	295	26	9	277	70	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3291	2929	672	103	12	62	282	836	58	44	12	229	310	336	646	107	299	25	9	282	74	-96	+4	-4	+59	+93	5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	132	20	2	12	56	165	11	9	2	228	308	332	640	104	297	25	9	282	74	-19	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	6181	5485	1237	186	29	107	533	1583	107	90	24	225	306	328	635	103	295	26	9	289	80	-142	+8	-7	+110	+175	14.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	130	20	3	11	56	166	11	9	3	225	306	328	633	102	295	26	9	289	80	-15	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	60	11	1	0	0	15	19	1	4	1	183	351	200	551	17	268	24	19	276	69	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,362	59	47	228	305	332	+60	+32	8.5	7.2
	/162	664	12	9	228	305	332	+11.9	+6.3	1.7	pk7: 6
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Vasquez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	195/291/214	19	271	0	3	25%	9%	50	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
●José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→50	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	48	-1.9	201/251/277	76	239	4	11	17%	4%	43	-2.2	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→50	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	52	-1.6	193/254/254	61	272	4	9	28%	7%	38	-2.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→50	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	40	-2.4	202/253/286	84	263	5	7	24%	6%	46	-2.0	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Yojhan Quevedo 2012 · A	18	43→52	36→45	49→50	46	204/267/271	67	276	4	6	26%	8%	48	-1.9	223/265/308	85	255	7	7	15%	5%	56	-1.3	225/260/307	83	250	6	7	13%	4%	51	-0.4
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2016 · A	18	41	36→55	49→45	47	196/260/260	65	259	4	13	25%	8%	43	-2.2	203/259/301	98	276	9	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
●Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	38→48	37→45	46→55	47	183/255/256	73	241	5	11	25%	8%	40	-2.4	207/259/305	98	267	5	11	23%	6%	53	-1.5	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Ricky Cabrera 2023 · A	18	42→44	37→45	47→60	37	197/271/278	80	298	4	8	33%	5%	53	-1.5	219/295/319	100	315	8	15	31%	6%	74	-0.1	224/303/332	108	321	10	20	31%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Bryan Andrade 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	49→45	44	191/257/246	55	259	2	5	26%	7%	38	-2.6	187/247/239	52	258	3	4	27%	6%	31	-3.0	187/256/263	76	248	7	5	26%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Luis Palacios 2007 · A	18	43	37→40	50	47	203/279/272	70	286	4	13	29%	8%	54	-1.4	204/261/283	79	271	5	7	25%	6%	49	-1.8	192/241/268	76	252	6	4	25%	5%	35	-0.9