Manuel Vasquez

C DSL Orioles Orange

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 183 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1323ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Orioles B…	78	.183/.351/.200	0	4	15	—	.123/.260/.138
2026	18	ROKDSL Orioles O…	94	.231/.362/.295	1	3	23	—	.134/.245/.146
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBAL	204	.211/.288/.277	1	3	63	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBAL	37	.218/.296/.297	0	1	68	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBAL	98	.222/.300/.311	1	2	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%79

Whiff%78

K%71

Chase%62

BB%46

wOBA30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Luis Vázquez (age 19) · Jason Lopez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .285 / .275

PA51

HR0

K%26

BB%9

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	60	11	1	0	0	15	19	1	4	1	183	351	200	551	17	268	24	19	276	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	78	18	2	0	1	14	16	2	3	1	231	362	295	657	64	279	17	15	313	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	11	24	1	4	1	123	260	138	398	15	175	31	14	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	82	11	1	0	0	10	20	2	3	1	134	245	146	391	12	177	21	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	11	24	1	4	1	123	260	138	398	15	195	31	14	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	60	11	1	0	0	15	19	1	4	1	183	351	200	551	17	268	24	19	276	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	82	11	1	0	0	10	20	2	3	1	134	245	146	391	12	177	21	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	78	18	2	0	1	14	16	2	3	1	231	362	295	657	64	279	17	15	313	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	66	8	1	0	0	11	24	1	4	1	121	260	136	396	15	175	31	14	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	82	11	1	0	0	10	20	2	3	1	134	245	146	391	12	177	21	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	78	66	8	1	0	0	11	24	1	4	1	121	260	136	396	15	175	31	14	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	94	82	11	1	0	0	10	20	2	3	1	134	245	146	391	12	177	21	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	204	182	37	5	1	1	18	54	2	3	1	211	288	277	565	66	287	26	9	261	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	107	96	21	3	1	1	9	28	1	2	0	215	293	292	585	77	289	26	8	269	68	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	202	180	39	6	1	2	18	52	2	3	1	219	297	305	602	86	290	26	9	276	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	312	278	61	9	2	4	27	79	4	5	2	222	300	316	616	94	291	25	9	281	77	-9	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	397	354	79	12	2	6	35	100	5	6	2	225	303	326	628	101	292	25	9	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	445	398	91	14	3	8	39	111	5	7	2	227	305	334	639	107	293	25	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	445	398	91	14	3	8	39	111	5	7	2	228	306	337	643	109	293	25	9	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	445	398	91	14	3	8	39	111	5	7	2	228	306	339	645	111	293	25	9	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	445	398	90	14	2	8	39	112	5	7	2	227	305	336	641	109	292	25	9	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	BAL	59%	445	398	89	13	2	8	39	113	5	7	2	225	303	331	634	106	291	25	9	288	81	-10	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	445	398	88	13	2	8	39	114	5	6	3	223	300	325	625	102	290	26	9	284	79	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	BAL	62%	445	398	87	13	2	7	39	116	5	6	3	220	296	317	613	97	288	26	9	280	75	-13	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	BAL	63%	426	382	82	12	2	6	37	112	4	6	5	215	291	307	598	92	285	26	9	273	71	-15	-1	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	37	34	7	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	218	296	297	593	79	293	27	8	272	68	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	98	88	20	3	1	1	9	25	1	2	0	222	300	311	610	89	294	26	9	279	73	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	169	150	34	5	1	3	15	43	2	3	1	225	303	322	626	97	295	25	9	285	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	225	200	46	7	1	4	20	57	3	4	1	228	306	333	638	104	296	25	9	290	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	252	225	52	8	1	5	22	63	3	4	1	231	308	341	649	110	297	25	9	294	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	251	224	52	8	1	5	22	63	3	4	1	232	309	344	653	113	297	25	9	296	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	251	224	52	8	1	5	22	63	3	4	1	232	309	346	656	115	297	25	9	296	84	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	247	220	51	8	1	5	22	62	3	4	1	231	308	344	652	113	296	25	9	295	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	BAL	59%	263	235	53	8	1	5	23	67	3	4	1	229	306	339	645	110	295	25	9	292	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	271	242	54	8	1	5	24	70	3	4	2	226	303	332	635	106	294	26	9	288	79	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	BAL	62%	277	248	55	8	1	5	24	72	3	4	2	223	299	324	623	101	292	26	9	283	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	BAL	63%	269	241	52	8	1	4	23	71	3	3	3	219	294	313	607	95	288	26	9	277	71	-9	-1	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2610	2331	528	80	11	47	229	666	30	41	14	227	304	331	635	104	295	26	9	289	77	-65	+3	-4	+47	+57	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	132	20	3	12	57	166	7	10	3	227	303	334	637	107	296	26	9	289	77	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4782	4269	937	140	25	74	424	1216	55	77	28	219	298	316	614	97	288	25	9	282	77	-116	+4	-7	+82	+100	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	127	19	3	10	58	165	7	10	4	219	298	314	611	95	287	25	9	282	77	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 94 PAwOBA .306 → .202 (−104)K% 17.0% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.02%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.89%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.50%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.50%
Singles /BIP	24.19%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	15.75%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	1.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .306 → .202; ISO .064 → .034; BABIP .279 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 78 PAwOBA .271 → .190 (−80)K% 24.4% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.36%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	30.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.23%	÷0.972	×0.700	—	×1.022	14.17%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.92%
Singles /BIP	24.39%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	16.12%
Doubles /BIP	2.44%	÷1.043	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	1.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.964	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.823	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 100, 2B 109, 3B 93, K 94, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .271 → .190; ISO .017 → .010; BABIP .268 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.0	2,661	44	41	224	298	326	+48	+32	5.6	5.1
/162	664	11	10	+11.9	+8.0	1.4	pk7: 5
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Vasquez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	209/285/275	66	287	0	1	26%	9%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Jose Rosario 2011 · A	19	41	38→40	50	42	199/262/275	76	274	5	10	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/261/320	106	270	10	12	24%	4%	63	-1.3	230/277/334	104	276	9	10	19%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	40	36→40	48→45	45	189/256/257	68	261	3	9	27%	8%	47	-2.5	183/228/250	67	245	3	9	25%	4%	34	-3.5	223/284/281	57	303	4	8	26%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	40	185/238/269	84	259	7	4	30%	6%	43	-2.8	195/239/273	78	247	5	3	22%	5%	44	-2.8	242/310/379	137	297	17	3	24%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	40	37→45	45→30	42	191/256/259	68	246	4	5	24%	6%	48	-2.5	210/260/300	90	277	8	4	26%	4%	58	-1.7	184/228/264	80	253	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	37	35→50	44→50	52	173/258/237	64	224	2	8	22%	9%	45	-2.7	189/250/263	74	224	4	7	16%	7%	46	-2.6	218/259/314	97	279	5	8	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	40	39→45	47→50	45	194/259/280	86	254	7	8	26%	7%	54	-2.0	210/288/337	127	293	13	8	31%	9%	78	-0.3	174/246/297	123	248	13	14	34%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→47	37→45	47→55	46	189/257/263	74	257	4	8	27%	8%	49	-2.4	200/264/264	64	286	4	10	29%	8%	51	-2.2	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	40→42	37→55	48→50	46	191/261/271	79	260	3	5	26%	8%	52	-2.2	197/244/318	121	277	11	5	32%	5%	56	-1.9	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2

Manuel Vasquez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps