Jose Riera

SS DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 19 R/R 5'8" / 145 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1181ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	200	.229/.342/.394	5	18	30	—	.142/.241/.239
2026	18	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	197	.288/.396/.380	1	25	48	—	.194/.286/.259
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBPIT	307	.214/.281/.303	3	8	66	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBPIT	53	.219/.287/.315	1	1	72	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBPIT	126	.222/.291/.326	2	3	76	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%93

Z-Con%91

Whiff%83

Speed76

wOBA52

wRC+41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJose Astudillo (age 19) · Juan Baez (age 19) · Ryan Burrowes (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .279 / .300

PA104

HR1

K%23

BB%7

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	170	39	7	3	5	24	29	5	18	5	229	342	394	736	165	248	14	12	332	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	163	47	10	1	1	22	22	7	25	7	288	396	380	776	92	319	11	11	349	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	176	25	4	2	3	18	36	5	18	5	142	241	239	480	97	158	18	9	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	170	33	6	1	1	15	27	7	25	7	194	286	259	545	65	209	14	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	176	25	4	2	3	18	36	5	18	5	142	241	239	480	97	159	18	9	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	170	39	7	3	5	24	29	5	18	5	229	342	394	736	165	248	14	12	332	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	170	33	6	1	1	15	27	7	25	7	194	286	259	545	65	219	14	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	163	47	10	1	1	22	22	7	25	7	288	396	380	776	92	319	11	11	349	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	175	25	4	2	3	18	36	5	18	5	143	241	240	481	97	158	18	9	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	173	33	6	1	1	15	27	7	25	7	191	286	254	541	64	209	14	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	200	175	25	4	2	3	18	36	5	18	5	143	241	240	481	97	158	18	9	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	197	173	33	6	1	1	15	27	7	25	7	191	286	254	541	64	209	14	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	307	278	60	10	3	3	22	70	4	8	1	214	281	303	584	88	272	23	7	266	66	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	153	139	30	5	1	2	11	34	2	4	1	219	287	317	604	98	274	22	7	274	72	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	260	235	52	9	2	4	19	58	4	7	1	222	292	328	620	106	276	22	7	280	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	368	333	75	13	3	6	27	82	5	9	2	225	295	337	632	112	278	22	7	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	438	396	90	16	3	8	33	97	6	11	2	228	298	344	642	117	279	22	8	289	82	-9	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	481	435	100	18	4	9	36	106	7	12	3	230	300	350	650	120	281	22	7	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	507	456	105	18	4	10	39	112	7	12	3	230	300	351	651	121	281	22	8	293	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	521	469	108	19	4	10	40	115	7	13	3	230	300	351	651	121	281	22	8	293	84	-10	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	525	473	108	19	4	10	40	117	7	13	3	229	299	348	647	120	280	22	8	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2036	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	520	468	107	19	4	10	40	117	7	12	3	227	297	344	641	117	279	22	8	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	PIT	58%	510	459	104	18	4	9	39	116	7	11	3	225	294	338	632	113	278	23	8	285	79	-13	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	PIT	60%	498	451	99	17	3	8	37	115	7	10	3	222	291	331	622	109	277	23	7	281	76	-14	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	PIT	62%	481	436	94	16	3	7	36	113	6	8	3	218	286	321	608	103	274	23	7	275	72	-16	+0	-3	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	53	48	11	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	219	287	315	602	96	275	23	8	273	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	126	114	26	5	1	2	9	28	2	3	1	222	291	326	617	104	277	22	7	279	76	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	200	180	41	7	2	3	15	44	3	5	1	225	295	334	629	109	279	22	8	284	79	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	248	223	50	9	2	4	19	55	4	6	1	227	297	341	638	114	280	22	8	288	82	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	272	245	56	10	2	5	21	60	4	7	1	229	299	346	645	117	281	22	8	291	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	286	258	59	11	2	5	22	63	4	7	2	229	299	347	646	118	282	22	8	291	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	294	266	60	11	2	5	22	65	4	7	2	229	299	347	646	118	281	22	7	291	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	291	263	60	11	2	5	22	65	4	7	2	228	298	345	643	117	281	22	8	290	83	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	285	257	59	11	2	5	22	64	4	6	1	226	297	340	637	114	280	22	8	287	82	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	PIT	58%	296	268	60	11	2	5	22	67	4	6	2	224	294	335	629	111	279	23	7	284	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	PIT	60%	300	271	60	11	2	5	22	69	4	6	2	221	291	328	618	106	278	23	7	280	76	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2039	31	MLB CTX	PIT	62%	297	269	59	11	2	4	22	70	4	5	2	218	286	319	605	101	275	24	7	274	72	-10	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2948	2662	601	110	21	49	222	662	42	66	17	226	296	338	634	112	281	22	8	285	77	-69	+6	-4	+32	+64	2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	133	24	5	11	49	146	9	15	4	227	296	341	637	114	282	22	8	285	77	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5763	5191	1151	201	43	98	437	1269	85	168	42	222	293	334	626	112	273	22	8	282	77	-128	+13	-7	+57	+116	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	130	23	5	11	49	143	10	19	5	222	293	335	629	113	274	22	8	282	77	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 197 PAwOBA .346 → .239 (−107)K% 11.2% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.17%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	13.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.66%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.52%
HBP% /PA	3.55%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.51%
Singles /BIP	24.82%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.984	×1.008	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.984	×1.008	4.22%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.984	×1.008	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	0.71%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.34%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .346 → .239; ISO .092 → .056; BABIP .319 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 200 PAwOBA .325 → .213 (−112)K% 14.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.50%	÷0.981	×1.220	—	—	18.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.00%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.79%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.79%
Singles /BIP	17.02%	÷1.003	×0.680	×0.963	×1.022	11.36%
Doubles /BIP	4.96%	÷0.970	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	3.02%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.991	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷0.940	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.81%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 98, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .325 → .213; ISO .165 → .092; BABIP .248 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.6	3,053	53	70	227	293	341	+33	+24	5.1	4.7
/162	664	12	15	+7.1	+5.2	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Riera (OGILVIE)	19	40	40	60	45	212/279/300	88	272	1	3	23%	7%	66	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	43	36→40	54→55	48	199/259/271	71	239	3	14	17%	6%	51	-2.3	231/283/301	70	265	2	14	13%	5%	66	-1.1	281/326/362	81	310	5	22	11%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Juan Baez 2024 · A	19	49→41	40	55→50	43	234/270/331	97	275	6	17	18%	4%	68	-1.0	213/267/279	66	253	2	9	16%	6%	56	-1.9	193/255/242	49	231	1	6	16%	7%	41	-1.9
✕Ryan Burrowes 2023 · A	18	42→45	37→40	55→60	49	196/284/271	75	254	4	13	23%	8%	62	-1.4	189/256/252	63	311	4	20	37%	6%	47	-2.6	200/271/277	77	308	7	32	35%	7%	56	-1.4
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	44	38→45	50	46	210/269/292	82	266	4	13	22%	6%	59	-1.6	202/248/279	77	299	4	11	32%	5%	49	-2.4	176/218/244	68	280	3	12	36%	4%	25	-1.1
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	42→48	37→45	55→60	50	201/278/273	72	271	5	19	26%	9%	59	-1.6	194/257/266	72	306	5	18	35%	7%	49	-2.4	217/285/319	102	301	8	34	29%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Gabrial Franca 2013 · A	19	41	38→40	54→55	46	197/264/281	84	262	5	17	26%	8%	55	-1.9	196/276/258	62	262	3	14	24%	9%	55	-1.9	163/268/180	17	214	0	19	21%	12%	34	-1.2
✕Jefferson Rojas 2023 · A	18	45→48	36→50	56→50	48	210/272/282	72	247	3	16	16%	6%	59	-1.7	217/279/313	96	271	9	15	22%	6%	69	-0.9	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	215/278/316	101	296	7	11	29%	7%	68	-1.0	197/266/293	96	297	7	13	33%	8%	59	-1.6	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	39	37→40	54→50	46	185/258/260	75	249	3	18	26%	8%	49	-2.4	204/270/286	82	298	5	9	31%	7%	59	-1.7	199/271/269	69	303	4	7	33%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Aroon Escobar 2024 · A	19	38→46	36→45	51→55	54	178/277/245	67	211	4	16	17%	9%	55	-2.0	218/300/318	100	261	10	17	20%	9%	78	-0.3	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→52	40	57→45	42	203/256/302	99	255	6	15	23%	5%	57	-1.8	219/288/315	96	285	8	12	24%	7%	72	-0.7	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕John Gil 2024 · A	18	43→45	36→40	55→60	52	202/288/273	71	266	3	18	23%	10%	63	-1.3	209/283/287	78	275	6	30	24%	9%	64	-1.3	211/283/297	86	272	8	38	24%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Ruben Santana 2024 · A	19	45→41	39→40	56→50	42	211/280/305	94	303	6	12	30%	7%	67	-1.1	190/264/267	77	306	5	10	36%	8%	53	-2.1	175/255/246	71	284	5	10	37%	8%	43	-2.1
✕Kelvin Hidalgo 2024 · A	19	39→44	42→40	53→55	48	192/268/294	103	240	9	13	24%	8%	61	-1.5	206/258/289	83	307	6	19	33%	6%	55	-2.0	207/256/289	82	319	7	22	35%	5%	51	-1.5
✕Jesus Hernandez 2023 · A	19	42	35→40	52→55	50	200/266/258	58	248	3	15	20%	8%	51	-2.3	194/274/273	79	271	5	15	28%	10%	58	-1.7	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Cristian Inoa 2018 · A	19	42	37→45	51→45	49	198/273/273	75	245	4	12	20%	8%	58	-1.7	203/276/281	78	271	4	8	24%	8%	60	-1.6	220/271/340	120	266	12	5	22%	5%	70	-0.6
✕Leandro Arias 2024 · A	19	40→45	39→40	53→45	48	194/267/279	85	248	6	14	23%	8%	57	-1.8	205/275/282	77	269	6	8	24%	8%	61	-1.5	203/277/274	71	268	6	8	25%	8%	58	-1.1

Jose Riera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps