Leandro Arias — OGILVIE

Leandro AriasSS Frederick Keys

Age 21 S/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ HR +8%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2032

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .280 / .289

PA291

HR3

SB6

K%23

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

25→25

SPD

45→45

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.6	$16M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.4	$14M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.2	$13M	+$7M
Totals		$17M		$90M	+$73M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	190	169	26	6	1	1	16	63	4	10	3	.154	.243	.219	.462	.065	.236	33	8	.215	23	-17	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.9
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	162	149	28	5	1	2	11	31	2	12	2	.188	.253	.275	.528	.087	.224	19	7	.243	44	-10	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2024	19	A	3 teams	385	339	68	12	1	5	27	96	9	7	8	.201	.277	.286	.563	.086	.256	25	7	.249	49	-22	-2	+0	+4	+11	-0.9
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	299	269	51	7	0	1	20	65	5	4	5	.190	.259	.227	.485	.037	.244	22	7	.222	28	-24	-1	+0	+3	+8	-1.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	A+	Frederick Keys	42	33	11	0	1	0	4	9	3	2	1	.333	.450	.394	.844	.061	.440	21	10	.364	137	+2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.3
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	249	224	50	7	1	3	18	57	5	4	3	.223	.296	.304	.599	.080	.285	23	7	.274	68	-9	-0	+0	+3	+7	0.0
TOT	21	MLB	BAL	291	257	61	7	2	3	22	66	8	6	4	.237	.317	.315	.632	.078	.305	23	8	.287	78	-7	-0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	BAL	347	309	71	11	1	5	28	73	7	6	4	.230	.308	.320	.629	.091	.283	21	8	.288	79	-8	-0	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2028	23	MLB 28%	BAL	424	377	89	14	2	8	36	88	8	8	5	.236	.316	.347	.663	.111	.284	21	8	.298	86	-7	-0	+0	+5	+12	1.0
2029	24	MLB 45%	BAL	476	423	101	16	2	10	41	98	9	8	5	.239	.319	.357	.676	.118	.285	21	9	.304	91	-5	-0	+0	+5	+13	1.4
2030	25	MLB 60%	BAL	504	445	107	17	2	11	45	103	9	9	5	.240	.323	.362	.684	.121	.286	20	9	.308	94	-4	-0	+0	+5	+14	1.6
2031	26	MLB 78%	BAL	519	457	109	17	2	11	47	106	10	9	5	.239	.323	.357	.680	.118	.286	20	9	.309	95	-3	-0	+0	+6	+15	1.7
2032	27	MLB 92%	BAL	524	461	110	17	2	11	48	108	10	9	5	.239	.324	.356	.679	.117	.286	21	9	.309	95	-3	-0	+0	+6	+15	1.8
2033	28	MLB	BAL	522	459	109	17	2	11	48	108	10	8	5	.237	.323	.355	.678	.118	.286	21	9	.308	94	-3	-0	-1	+6	+15	1.6
2034	29	MLB	BAL	515	453	108	17	2	11	48	108	9	7	4	.238	.324	.358	.681	.119	.285	21	9	.306	92	-4	-0	-1	+6	+15	1.4
2035	30	MLB	BAL	505	444	104	16	2	10	47	108	9	6	4	.234	.320	.347	.667	.113	.284	21	9	.303	90	-6	-0	-2	+5	+14	1.2
2036	31	MLB	BAL	492	434	99	15	2	9	46	107	9	5	4	.228	.315	.334	.649	.106	.282	22	9	.299	87	-7	-1	-3	+5	+14	0.9
2037	32	MLB	BAL	474	419	95	14	2	9	44	106	8	4	5	.227	.312	.334	.646	.107	.281	22	9	.295	84	-9	-1	-4	+5	+13	0.5
2038	33	MLB	BAL	445	393	88	13	2	8	41	102	8	3	6	.224	.310	.328	.638	.104	.280	23	9	.289	80	-10	-2	-4	+5	+13	0.1
2039	34	MLB	BAL	399	352	76	11	1	6	37	95	7	3	8	.216	.303	.304	.607	.088	.278	24	9	.283	75	-11	-3	-5	+4	+11	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7431	6576	1489	232	28	132	648	1622	138	122	86	.226	.309	.330	.639	.104	.279	22	9	.291	81	-163	-10	-20	+80	+211	10.0
/ 162G	—			650	575	130	20	2	12	57	142	12	11	8	.226	.309	.330	.639	.104	.278	22	9	.291	81	-14	-1	-2	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	.217	.344	.306	.650	.089	.284	22	14	.304	91	-2	+1	—	—	+5	0.4
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	.271	.370	.414	.785	.143	.299	12	12	.354	129	+5	+2	—	—	+5	1.2
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	85	73	18	4	0	0	9	18	2	0	1	.247	.345	.301	.647	.055	.321	21	11	.301	88	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	274	230	49	9	0	3	31	51	5	6	7	.213	.320	.291	.611	.078	.253	19	11	.280	72	-9	-2	—	—	+8	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	26	19	7	3	1	2	4	3	2	1	0	.368	.520	.947	1.467	.579	.333	12	15	.569	294	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	.219	.316	.273	.590	.055	.262	17	11	.274	68	-11	-1	—	—	+8	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leandro Arias (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	45	45	.212/.280/.289	.077	.272	3	4	23%	7%	60	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shawn Zarraga 2010 · A	21	45	36→40	48→45	47	.210/.288/.277	.068	.290	4	5	27%	8%	59	-1.1	.233/.300/.320	.087	.305	6	8	24%	7%	76	+0.0	.272/.340/.355	.083	.316	4	2	14%	7%	101	+0.6
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→43	36→30	47→60	47	.226/.287/.294	.067	.288	2	10	21%	7%	62	-0.9	.230/.323/.285	.055	.320	2	26	25%	12%	76	+0.1	.224/.333/.269	.045	.305	1	34	23%	14%	74	-0.0
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	46	36→30	46→50	47	.212/.287/.278	.066	.295	3	8	27%	9%	59	-1.1	.185/.242/.255	.070	.336	4	8	43%	6%	33	-2.9	.145/.187/.204	.059	.312	3	4	52%	4%	-7	-1.2
✕Elvis Perez 2017 · A	21	47	36→30	45	45	.221/.279/.291	.070	.288	2	7	23%	7%	58	-1.2	.203/.252/.282	.079	.280	5	6	28%	6%	44	-2.1	.182/.216/.277	.095	.240	9	2	28%	4%	25	-1.1
✕Gustavo Omana 2007 · A	21	44	35→30	46→45	44	.206/.260/.262	.056	.259	2	5	21%	6%	43	-2.2	.229/.277/.297	.068	.274	4	4	17%	5%	59	-1.1	.261/.301/.322	.061	.294	4	0	12%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Lobatón 2006 · A	21	45	39→45	50→30	46	.215/.277/.302	.088	.284	6	8	25%	8%	60	-1.0	.215/.286/.335	.120	.300	12	3	30%	9%	73	-0.1	.241/.325/.370	.129	.305	12	0	23%	11%	94	+0.6
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	43	40→30	50→45	43	.207/.256/.299	.091	.264	7	6	24%	6%	50	-1.7	.225/.268/.285	.060	.282	3	6	20%	5%	51	-1.7	.234/.271/.267	.033	.288	1	6	19%	4%	46	-0.6
✕Wilfred Astudillo 2021 · A	21	45	38→30	49→45	48	.215/.276/.296	.081	.258	5	8	18%	7%	59	-1.1	.219/.263/.324	.105	.263	11	6	21%	5%	60	-1.0	.211/.250/.303	.093	.244	12	3	19%	4%	47	-0.6
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	40	38→40	47→55	47	.192/.263/.275	.082	.250	5	9	24%	8%	48	-1.9	.212/.292/.300	.088	.255	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	.209/.299/.290	.080	.241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	46	37→40	42→45	48	.215/.279/.290	.075	.276	4	5	23%	8%	58	-1.2	.200/.260/.272	.072	.277	5	5	27%	7%	45	-2.1	.210/.261/.258	.048	.277	3	6	24%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Chace Numata 2014 · A	21	44	39→40	48→40	45	.210/.260/.291	.081	.245	7	6	18%	5%	50	-1.7	.228/.277/.303	.075	.275	5	5	18%	6%	60	-1.0	.250/.301/.323	.073	.295	3	2	16%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	.206/.285/.274	.068	.268	3	8	23%	8%	57	-1.2	.226/.305/.314	.088	.269	4	8	16%	8%	76	+0.1	.231/.320/.325	.095	.269	5	9	15%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Maick Collado 2023 · A	20	44	39→30	46→45	51	.211/.292/.295	.085	.267	6	5	22%	9%	66	-0.6	.217/.288/.288	.071	.274	5	7	21%	9%	62	-0.9	.209/.279/.272	.063	.258	5	5	20%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2015 · A	21	48	34→30	46→45	50	.222/.285/.277	.056	.272	2	9	18%	8%	57	-1.2	.242/.295/.305	.063	.289	3	6	16%	7%	68	-0.5	.255/.305/.308	.053	.301	3	5	15%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Terry Serrano 2008 · A	21	40	35→30	46→55	48	.190/.265/.243	.053	.259	2	13	26%	9%	41	-2.3	.202/.275/.269	.067	.289	3	16	28%	9%	51	-1.7	.199/.280/.266	.067	.297	2	22	31%	10%	49	-0.7
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	.214/.278/.298	.084	.285	5	12	26%	8%	60	-1.0	.216/.302/.277	.061	.288	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	.216/.317/.260	.044	.285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	41→43	38→40	48→50	44	.198/.258/.273	.074	.270	5	7	28%	7%	45	-2.1	.184/.258/.260	.076	.274	5	14	32%	9%	42	-2.3	.195/.282/.288	.093	.289	8	15	32%	10%	56	-0.7
✕Noe Becerra 2009 · AAA	22	43	37→30	44→40	47	.204/.265/.277	.073	.261	5	8	23%	7%	49	-1.8	.224/.280/.308	.084	.274	7	7	20%	7%	63	-0.8	.278/.325/.338	.060	.315	3	0	12%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	41→47	36→45	45→55	44	.195/.257/.255	.059	.270	4	11	28%	7%	40	-2.4	.196/.263/.271	.075	.285	6	12	31%	8%	46	-2.0	.221/.306/.342	.121	.297	13	26	28%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Roy Morales 2016 · A	21	44	36→30	44→45	47	.204/.268/.273	.070	.231	4	5	14%	5%	50	-1.7	.229/.290/.289	.060	.270	3	7	15%	6%	63	-0.9	.267/.331/.325	.058	.319	4	8	16%	7%	86	+0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)