Leandro Arias — OGILVIE

Leandro AriasSS Frederick Keys

Age 21 S/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION408 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	92	-2	+1	—	—	+4	0.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	126	+5	+2	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	85	73	18	4	0	0	9	18	2	0	1	247	345	301	647	55	321	21	11	301	90	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	274	230	49	9	0	3	31	51	5	6	7	213	320	291	611	78	253	19	11	280	75	-8	-2	—	—	+6	-0.4
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	26	19	7	3	1	2	4	3	2	1	0	368	520	947	1.467	579	333	12	15	569	271	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	72	-10	-1	—	—	+6	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	169	26	6	1	1	16	61	4	10	3	154	243	219	462	65	228	32	8	212	30	-16	+1	—	—	+4	-1.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	148	28	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	189	259	277	536	88	231	19	7	249	55	-9	+2	—	—	+4	-0.4
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	85	76	15	3	0	0	6	24	2	0	1	197	274	237	511	39	293	28	7	245	52	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	274	242	45	6	0	3	19	70	5	6	7	186	259	248	507	62	231	26	7	231	42	-19	-2	—	—	+6	-1.5
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	26	20	7	3	1	2	3	4	2	1	0	350	480	900	1.380	550	256	15	12	467	202	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	267	53	7	0	1	22	66	5	4	5	199	272	236	508	37	250	22	7	232	43	-20	-1	—	—	+6	-1.5
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	169	26	6	1	1	16	61	4	10	3	154	243	219	462	65	231	32	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	148	28	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	189	259	277	536	88	224	19	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	338	68	12	1	5	28	98	9	7	8	201	280	287	567	86	259	25	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	385	322	74	16	1	5	44	72	9	7	8	230	339	332	671	102	273	19	11	304	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	267	53	7	0	1	22	66	5	4	5	199	272	236	508	37	257	22	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	168	26	6	1	1	16	61	4	10	3	155	243	220	464	65	228	32	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	147	28	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	190	259	279	538	88	231	19	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	345	68	12	1	5	28	98	9	7	8	197	280	281	561	84	246	25	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	270	53	7	0	1	22	66	5	4	5	196	272	233	505	37	250	22	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	147	28	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	190	259	279	538	88	231	19	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	345	68	12	1	5	28	98	9	7	8	197	280	281	561	84	246	25	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	270	53	7	0	1	22	66	5	4	5	196	272	233	505	37	250	22	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	BAL	—	408	358	80	11	2	5	33	114	9	12	6	223	305	307	612	84	311	28	8	269	68	-15	+0	+0	+4	+9	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ RAW	BAL	—	408	341	86	13	2	6	50	85	9	12	6	252	362	355	717	103	317	21	12	325	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A+ MLE	BAL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		284	22	11	265	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A+ MLE	BAL	—	417	366	81	11	2	5	34	116	9	12	6	221	303	303	606	82	308	28	8	269	68	-16	+0	+0	+4	+9	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	35%	425	381	84	13	2	6	34	108	7	7	4	220	296	312	609	92	285	25	8	276	73	-14	-0	+0	+5	+9	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	479	430	97	15	2	9	39	118	7	8	5	226	300	333	633	107	286	25	8	286	80	-12	-0	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	513	457	104	16	2	10	43	124	8	8	5	228	305	337	642	109	287	24	8	292	84	-10	-0	+0	+5	+11	0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	528	470	108	17	2	11	45	127	8	9	5	230	308	345	653	115	287	24	9	296	86	-9	-0	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	535	476	110	17	2	12	46	128	8	9	5	231	309	351	660	120	287	24	9	297	87	-8	-0	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	534	475	110	17	2	12	46	128	8	9	5	232	310	352	662	120	287	24	9	297	87	-8	-0	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	529	470	108	17	2	11	46	128	8	8	5	230	309	345	654	115	287	24	9	296	87	-8	-0	-1	+6	+11	0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	519	460	105	16	2	11	46	127	8	8	4	228	309	343	653	115	286	24	9	294	85	-9	+0	-1	+6	+11	0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	508	450	102	16	2	10	45	125	8	7	4	227	308	338	646	111	285	25	9	292	84	-10	-0	-2	+5	+11	0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	60%	494	441	98	15	2	10	43	123	7	6	4	222	301	333	635	111	283	25	9	288	81	-11	-0	-3	+5	+11	0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	475	423	92	14	1	9	42	120	7	5	3	217	299	319	618	102	280	25	9	283	78	-13	-0	-4	+5	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	35%	147	132	30	5	1	2	12	37	2	2	1	227	301	326	627	98	289	25	8	268	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	232	207	47	7	1	4	19	57	4	4	2	227	304	329	633	101	290	25	8	279	80	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	271	242	56	9	1	6	23	66	4	4	3	231	309	351	660	120	291	24	8	286	84	-5	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	289	259	60	10	1	6	24	69	4	5	3	232	307	347	654	116	292	24	8	289	86	-5	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	298	266	62	10	1	7	25	71	5	5	3	233	311	357	668	124	292	24	8	290	87	-5	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	294	262	62	10	1	7	25	71	5	5	3	237	315	363	678	126	291	24	9	290	87	-4	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	289	258	59	9	1	6	25	70	4	5	3	229	307	341	648	112	291	24	9	289	87	-5	-0	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	277	247	57	9	1	6	24	68	4	4	2	231	309	348	657	117	290	25	9	288	85	-5	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	290	258	59	9	1	6	26	71	4	4	2	229	309	341	650	112	289	24	9	285	84	-6	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	60%	294	262	59	9	1	6	26	73	4	4	2	225	305	336	641	111	287	25	9	281	81	-7	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	291	260	58	9	1	6	25	74	4	3	2	223	301	335	636	112	284	25	9	276	78	-8	-0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2972	2653	609	96	11	62	254	727	44	45	26	230	307	344	651	115	292	24	9	285	77	-59	-1	-6	+32	+64	3.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	133	21	2	14	56	159	10	10	6	229	308	345	653	116	291	24	9	285	77	-13	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6584	5863	1294	203	24	120	554	1613	104	117	67	221	299	325	624	104	282	24	8	283	77	-112	-3	-10	+59	+120	5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	127	20	2	12	55	159	10	12	7	219	298	323	621	104	279	24	8	283	77	-13	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.5	2,973	60	45	227	302	339	+32	+18	5.3	4.8
/162	664	13	10	+7.1	+4.0	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leandro Arias (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	45	45	210/287/284	74	284	3	7	26%	8%	66	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gustavo Omana 2007 · A	21	44	35→30	46→45	45	206/260/260	55	257	2	5	20%	6%	49	-2.4	229/278/299	70	274	4	4	17%	5%	64	-1.3	261/301/322	61	294	4	0	12%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Juan Mosquera 2009 · A	21	43	33→30	46→55	52	197/290/240	43	280	1	14	27%	10%	57	-1.8	202/267/260	58	263	3	9	22%	8%	51	-2.2	183/242/211	28	222	0	9	16%	7%	28	-1.0
✕Elvis Perez 2017 · A	21	47	36→30	46→45	45	220/278/291	71	289	2	7	24%	7%	62	-1.4	201/248/281	80	284	5	5	29%	6%	49	-2.4	178/210/273	95	240	9	2	30%	4%	30	-1.2
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→45	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	66	-1.1	229/326/283	54	319	2	26	25%	12%	80	-0.2	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2015 · A	21	47	35→30	46→45	49	220/283/279	59	274	2	8	20%	8%	61	-1.5	242/293/303	61	291	3	6	17%	6%	71	-0.8	252/302/305	52	300	3	5	16%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Terry Serrano 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	46→55	49	191/267/245	53	257	2	13	25%	9%	49	-2.4	202/275/269	67	295	3	16	29%	9%	57	-1.8	195/275/262	67	298	2	22	32%	10%	52	-0.8
✕Shawn Zarraga 2010 · A	21	44	36→40	48→45	47	207/285/272	64	289	4	5	28%	8%	62	-1.4	235/300/323	88	304	6	8	23%	6%	79	-0.2	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	45	36→30	46→50	45	208/280/278	70	304	4	8	30%	8%	61	-1.5	185/243/254	69	327	4	8	41%	7%	41	-3.0	144/186/202	58	310	3	4	52%	4%	5	-1.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	61	-1.5	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	80	-0.2	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Melvin Jimenez 2017 · A	21	47	34→30	48→45	49	219/280/274	54	264	1	8	17%	7%	59	-1.7	220/280/275	55	266	2	8	17%	8%	59	-1.6	229/293/248	19	262	0	9	12%	8%	57	-0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	41→48	36→45	46→55	43	195/257/255	61	273	4	12	29%	7%	47	-2.6	200/267/276	76	287	5	12	30%	8%	55	-1.9	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	41→45	37→40	48→50	44	198/260/271	72	274	5	7	28%	7%	51	-2.2	184/259/260	76	272	5	14	31%	9%	49	-2.4	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Wilfred Astudillo 2021 · A	21	45	38→30	49→45	47	216/277/299	84	266	5	8	20%	7%	64	-1.3	216/260/320	104	259	11	5	21%	5%	63	-1.4	207/247/302	95	239	12	3	19%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Chace Numata 2014 · A	21	45	39→40	48→40	46	215/267/294	79	253	6	6	18%	6%	59	-1.6	231/282/306	75	280	4	5	18%	6%	68	-1.0	248/299/321	72	292	3	2	15%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	206/254/297	91	260	7	5	24%	6%	55	-2.0	221/264/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	54	-2.0	231/268/265	34	289	1	6	20%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Julian Morillo 2012 · A	20	41	34→30	45→50	47	189/257/241	52	248	1	8	23%	7%	44	-2.8	212/258/289	77	283	4	7	25%	5%	55	-2.0	242/264/328	86	301	4	4	20%	1%	61	-0.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	42	-2.9	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	61	-1.5	240/292/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Jhon Nuñez 2016 · A	21	44	36→40	47→50	47	208/268/277	69	261	3	10	20%	7%	55	-1.9	226/273/310	84	298	5	8	25%	5%	65	-1.2	229/273/309	80	291	7	10	23%	4%	62	-0.6
✕Elih Marrero 2019 · A	22	46	36→40	49→55	47	214/278/280	67	279	3	5	23%	8%	60	-1.6	213/272/293	80	285	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps