Leandro Arias — OGILVIE

Leandro AriasSS Frederick Keys

Age 21 S/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION268 act + 178 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .289 / .284

PA178

HR2

K%27

BB%8

BABIP283

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$10M		$23M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	190	169	25	6	1	1	16	63	4	10	3	148	238	213	451	65	226	33	8	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	162	149	28	5	1	2	11	30	2	12	2	188	253	275	528	87	222	19	7	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	3 teams	—	385	338	68	12	1	5	28	96	9	7	8	201	280	287	567	86	257	25	7	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	3 teams	—	385	322	74	16	1	5	44	72	9	7	8	230	339	332	671	102	273	19	11	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	265	53	7	0	1	24	65	5	4	5	200	279	238	517	38	259	22	8	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	BAL	—	268	234	51	5	1	3	24	80	6	8	3	218	307	286	593	68	316	30	9	267	63	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.0
YTD	21	A+	BAL	—	268	221	55	6	1	4	37	60	6	8	3	249	371	339	711	90	323	22	14	327	109	+3	+0	+0	+3	+8	1.4
ROS	21	A+	BAL	0%	178	158	33	4	1	2	15	48	3	4	2	208	289	284	572	76	282	27	8	260	57	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						285	0	0	250	49	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	A+	BAL	—	269	235	51	5	1	3	24	80	6	8	3	217	306	285	591	68	314	30	9	267	62	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
TOT	21	A+	BAL	—	446	392	84	9	2	5	39	128	9	12	5	214	300	285	585	71	302	29	9	264	60	-20	+0	+0	+5	+13	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	35%	427	381	81	11	1	6	36	111	7	7	4	213	292	294	586	81	283	26	8	272	67	-16	-0	+0	+5	+12	0.0
2028	23	MLB	BAL	49%	480	428	94	13	1	9	42	121	7	8	4	220	300	318	618	98	285	25	9	283	75	-14	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	514	456	103	15	2	10	45	128	8	8	5	226	306	333	640	107	286	25	9	290	80	-12	-0	+0	+6	+15	0.8
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	528	468	106	15	2	11	47	130	8	8	5	226	308	338	645	111	287	25	9	293	82	-10	-0	+0	+6	+15	1.0
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	535	474	108	16	2	11	48	132	8	9	5	228	309	340	649	112	286	25	9	294	83	-10	-0	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	534	473	107	15	2	11	48	132	8	9	5	226	308	336	644	110	286	25	9	294	83	-10	-0	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2033	28	MLB	BAL	59%	529	468	106	15	2	11	48	131	8	8	5	226	309	338	647	111	286	25	9	293	83	-10	-0	-1	+6	+15	0.9
2034	29	MLB	BAL	61%	519	458	103	15	1	11	48	130	8	8	4	225	309	334	643	109	285	25	9	292	81	-11	+0	-1	+6	+15	0.8
2035	30	MLB	BAL	62%	508	449	99	14	1	10	47	128	7	7	4	220	304	323	627	102	284	25	9	289	79	-12	-0	-2	+5	+14	0.6
2036	31	MLB	BAL	63%	494	439	96	13	1	10	45	126	7	6	3	219	301	321	623	103	282	26	9	285	76	-13	+0	-3	+5	+14	0.3
2037	32	MLB	BAL	64%	475	421	90	12	1	9	44	123	7	5	3	214	299	311	610	97	280	26	9	280	73	-15	-0	-4	+5	+13	0.0
2027	22	MLB	BAL	35%	148	132	28	4	0	2	13	39	2	2	1	212	293	288	580	76	287	26	9	264	60	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	BAL	49%	233	207	47	7	1	4	20	59	4	4	2	227	307	329	636	101	289	25	9	276	69	-8	+0	+0	+2	+7	0.1
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	271	241	56	8	1	6	24	67	4	4	2	232	312	349	661	116	290	25	9	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	289	257	59	9	1	6	26	71	4	5	3	230	310	342	653	113	291	25	9	286	77	-7	-0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	298	265	61	9	1	7	27	73	4	5	3	230	311	351	662	121	291	24	9	287	78	-7	-0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	294	261	61	9	1	7	27	73	4	5	3	234	315	356	671	123	290	25	9	287	78	-7	-0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2033	28	MLB	BAL	59%	311	275	63	9	1	7	28	77	5	5	3	229	312	345	657	116	290	25	9	286	77	-8	-0	-0	+3	+9	0.4
2034	29	MLB	BAL	61%	315	278	64	9	1	7	29	79	5	5	3	230	314	345	659	115	289	25	9	285	76	-9	-0	-1	+3	+9	0.3
2035	30	MLB	BAL	62%	315	278	63	9	1	7	29	80	5	4	2	227	311	342	653	115	289	25	9	282	74	-9	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.2
2036	31	MLB	BAL	63%	311	274	61	9	1	6	29	79	5	4	2	223	308	328	637	106	286	25	9	278	71	-10	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.0
2037	32	MLB	BAL	64%	302	267	59	8	1	6	28	78	4	3	2	221	304	326	630	105	284	26	9	273	67	-11	-0	-2	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3088	2736	622	90	10	65	280	775	46	46	26	227	310	339	648	111	291	25	9	282	74	-92	-1	-7	+33	+87	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	131	19	2	14	59	163	10	10	5	227	310	340	650	113	291	25	9	282	74	-19	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	6757	5994	1300	188	20	120	592	1694	106	120	67	217	299	315	613	98	280	25	9	280	72	-211	-3	-10	+72	+191	4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	125	18	2	12	57	163	10	12	6	217	298	317	615	101	278	25	9	280	72	-20	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	91	-2	+1	—	—	+5	0.4
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	129	+5	+2	—	—	+5	1.2
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	85	73	18	4	0	0	9	18	2	0	1	247	345	301	647	55	321	21	11	301	88	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	274	230	49	9	0	3	31	51	5	6	7	213	320	291	611	78	253	19	11	280	72	-9	-2	—	—	+8	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	26	19	7	3	1	2	4	3	2	1	0	368	520	947	1.467	579	333	12	15	569	294	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	68	-11	-1	—	—	+8	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,090	61	46	224	303	330	+33	+18	4.2	3.9
	/162	664	13	10	224	303	330	+7.1	+3.9	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leandro Arias (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	45	45	214/300/285	71	302	5	12	29%	9%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gustavo Omana 2007 · A	21	44	35→30	46→45	45	206/260/260	55	257	2	5	20%	6%	42	-2.3	229/278/299	70	274	4	4	17%	5%	59	-1.1	261/301/322	61	294	4	0	12%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2015 · A	21	47	35→30	46→45	49	220/283/279	59	274	2	8	20%	8%	56	-1.3	245/297/310	65	293	4	6	17%	7%	70	-0.3	258/307/313	56	305	4	5	16%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Terry Serrano 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	46→55	49	191/267/245	53	257	2	13	25%	9%	42	-2.3	202/275/269	67	295	3	16	29%	9%	51	-1.7	195/275/262	67	298	2	22	32%	10%	46	-0.8
✕Juan Mosquera 2009 · A	21	43	33→30	46→55	52	197/290/240	43	280	1	14	27%	10%	51	-1.7	202/267/260	58	263	3	9	22%	8%	45	-2.1	183/242/211	28	222	0	9	16%	7%	19	-1.0
✕Elvis Perez 2017 · A	21	47	36→30	46→45	45	220/278/291	71	289	2	7	24%	7%	57	-1.2	202/250/281	79	286	5	5	29%	6%	43	-2.2	181/215/272	91	248	8	2	30%	4%	23	-1.1
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	45	36→30	46→50	45	208/280/278	70	305	4	8	31%	8%	56	-1.3	185/243/254	69	328	3	8	41%	6%	33	-2.9	146/188/204	58	314	3	4	52%	4%	-7	-1.2
✕Julian Morillo 2012 · A	20	41	34→30	45→50	47	189/257/241	52	248	1	8	23%	7%	37	-2.7	212/258/289	77	283	4	7	25%	5%	49	-1.8	242/264/328	86	301	4	4	20%	1%	56	-0.3
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	56	-1.3	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	77	+0.1	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Melvin Jimenez 2017 · A	21	47	34→30	48→45	49	219/280/274	54	264	1	8	17%	7%	53	-1.5	220/280/275	55	266	2	8	17%	8%	54	-1.4	229/293/248	19	262	0	9	12%	8%	52	-0.5
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→46	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	62	-0.9	224/322/278	54	314	2	26	25%	12%	75	-0.0	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	42→44	38→40	48→50	44	202/264/277	75	279	5	7	28%	7%	48	-1.9	182/258/257	75	275	5	14	32%	9%	42	-2.3	198/284/290	92	298	8	15	33%	10%	58	-0.7
✕David Gonzalez 2015 · A	21	46→42	36→30	46→45	48	216/274/281	65	264	3	9	19%	7%	53	-1.5	202/251/263	61	250	3	9	19%	6%	39	-2.5	188/238/240	52	230	2	9	18%	6%	24	-2.2
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	42	35→30	42→30	47	198/274/259	61	274	3	4	27%	8%	50	-1.8	213/266/275	62	297	3	6	27%	6%	48	-1.9	241/305/316	75	293	8	1	20%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Kelvin Alarcon 2019 · A	20	43	35→30	48→55	51	200/292/258	58	284	3	8	28%	11%	57	-1.2	209/271/272	63	327	3	8	34%	7%	50	-1.7	201/262/235	34	319	0	8	34%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	46	-2.0	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	73	-0.1	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	206/254/297	91	260	7	5	24%	6%	49	-1.8	221/264/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	48	-1.9	231/268/265	34	289	1	6	20%	4%	44	-0.6
✕Shawn Zarraga 2010 · A	21	44	36→40	48→45	47	207/285/272	64	289	4	5	28%	8%	57	-1.2	237/301/331	94	305	7	8	23%	6%	79	+0.3	277/347/362	84	322	4	2	14%	8%	106	+0.8
✕Rigoberto Terrazas 2017 · A	21	42	34→30	46→40	45	199/248/250	52	251	2	4	21%	6%	34	-2.8	200/248/263	63	259	3	3	23%	6%	37	-2.6	188/236/244	55	244	3	0	23%	6%	26	-1.6