Leandro Arias
SS Frederick Keys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+/A/ROK2 orgs | 385 | .230/.339/.332 | 5 | 7 | 60 | — | .210/.293/.304 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+Aberdeen Iron… | 299 | .219/.316/.273 | 2 | 4 | 42 | — | .201/.272/.250 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+BAL | 408 | .252/.362/.355 | 6 | 12 | 67 | — | .222/.300/.306 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 1 | .206/.279/.282 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 126 | .213/.286/.304 | 2 | 2 | 66 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 189 | .217/.291/.319 | 3 | 3 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | — | 190 | 157 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 217 | 344 | 306 | 650 | 89 | 284 | 22 | 14 | 304 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 162 | 140 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 271 | 370 | 414 | 785 | 143 | 299 | 12 | 12 | 354 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 85 | 73 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 345 | 301 | 647 | 55 | 321 | 21 | 11 | 301 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 274 | 230 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 51 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 213 | 320 | 291 | 611 | 78 | 253 | 19 | 11 | 280 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 26 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 368 | 520 | 947 | 1.467 | 579 | 333 | 12 | 15 | 569 | 204 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 256 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 219 | 316 | 273 | 590 | 55 | 262 | 17 | 11 | 274 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 341 | 86 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 85 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 252 | 362 | 355 | 717 | 103 | 317 | 21 | 12 | 325 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 190 | 166 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 139 | 243 | 199 | 442 | 60 | 193 | 27 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 162 | 148 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 196 | 265 | 284 | 549 | 88 | 237 | 19 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 85 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 286 | 250 | 536 | 39 | 291 | 28 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 274 | 239 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 67 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 197 | 278 | 264 | 542 | 67 | 237 | 24 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 26 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 480 | 900 | 1.380 | 550 | 258 | 15 | 12 | 470 | 204 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 268 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 201 | 272 | 250 | 522 | 49 | 247 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 360 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 111 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 222 | 300 | 306 | 606 | 83 | 292 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 190 | 166 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 139 | 243 | 199 | 442 | 60 | 193 | 27 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Black | — | 190 | 157 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 217 | 344 | 306 | 650 | 89 | 284 | 22 | 14 | 304 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 162 | 148 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 196 | 265 | 284 | 549 | 88 | 233 | 19 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 162 | 140 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 271 | 370 | 414 | 785 | 143 | 299 | 12 | 12 | 354 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 336 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 205 | 288 | 286 | 574 | 80 | 265 | 25 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 385 | 322 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 72 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 230 | 339 | 332 | 671 | 102 | 273 | 19 | 11 | 304 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 268 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 201 | 272 | 250 | 522 | 49 | 256 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 256 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 219 | 316 | 273 | 590 | 55 | 262 | 17 | 11 | 274 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 360 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 111 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 222 | 300 | 306 | 606 | 83 | 305 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 341 | 86 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 85 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 252 | 362 | 355 | 717 | 103 | 317 | 21 | 12 | 325 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 190 | 165 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 139 | 243 | 200 | 443 | 61 | 193 | 27 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 162 | 147 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 197 | 265 | 286 | 551 | 88 | 237 | 19 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 343 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 201 | 288 | 280 | 568 | 79 | 250 | 25 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 271 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 199 | 272 | 247 | 519 | 48 | 247 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 365 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 111 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 219 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 82 | 292 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 343 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 201 | 288 | 280 | 568 | 79 | 250 | 25 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 299 | 271 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 199 | 272 | 247 | 519 | 48 | 247 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 408 | 365 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 111 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 219 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 82 | 292 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 518 | 466 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 130 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 203 | 276 | 277 | 553 | 74 | 266 | 25 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -25 | -0 | +0 | +6 | +11 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 279 | 282 | 561 | 76 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 59 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 35% | 364 | 327 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 89 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 283 | 298 | 581 | 88 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 46% | 408 | 367 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 214 | 288 | 312 | 600 | 98 | 270 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 453 | 407 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 109 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 217 | 291 | 321 | 612 | 104 | 272 | 24 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 469 | 422 | 92 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 112 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 218 | 292 | 326 | 618 | 108 | 273 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -13 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 474 | 426 | 93 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 114 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 219 | 293 | 327 | 620 | 109 | 273 | 24 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -13 | -1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 472 | 424 | 92 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 114 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 217 | 291 | 323 | 614 | 106 | 272 | 24 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -14 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 462 | 416 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 113 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 215 | 288 | 317 | 605 | 102 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -15 | -1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 452 | 407 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 112 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 212 | 285 | 310 | 595 | 98 | 270 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -16 | -1 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 35% | 126 | 113 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 91 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 270 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 46% | 189 | 169 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 217 | 291 | 319 | 610 | 102 | 274 | 24 | 8 | 277 | 71 | -6 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 234 | 210 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 294 | 328 | 622 | 108 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 282 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 254 | 228 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 61 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 111 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 285 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 257 | 230 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 296 | 335 | 631 | 113 | 277 | 24 | 8 | 286 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 256 | 229 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 220 | 294 | 330 | 624 | 110 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 283 | 75 | -8 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 245 | 220 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 218 | 291 | 324 | 616 | 106 | 275 | 24 | 8 | 280 | 73 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 237 | 213 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 215 | 288 | 316 | 604 | 101 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 70 | -9 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1798 | 1612 | 352 | 56 | 7 | 34 | 145 | 437 | 26 | 24 | 15 | 218 | 293 | 325 | 618 | 107 | 277 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 67 | -57 | -1 | -2 | +19 | +39 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 127 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 158 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 218 | 292 | 324 | 616 | 106 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 67 | -21 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5208 | 4663 | 979 | 157 | 18 | 79 | 411 | 1267 | 84 | 96 | 58 | 210 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 92 | 269 | 24 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -125 | -3 | -4 | +40 | +82 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 122 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 158 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 210 | 284 | 302 | 587 | 93 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -22 | -1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 408 PAwOBA .319 → .267 (−52)K% 20.8% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .319 → .267; ISO .103 → .091; BABIP .317 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 299 PAwOBA .270 → .231 (−39)K% 16.7% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.72% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 21.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 21.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.72% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .270 → .231; ISO .055 → .045; BABIP .262 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 274 PAwOBA .277 → .240 (−37)K% 18.6% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.61% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.045 | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×1.045 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.47% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .277 → .240; ISO .078 → .064; BABIP .253 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 85 PAwOBA .297 → .245 (−52)K% 21.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.18% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.59% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .245; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .321 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 26 PAwOBA .576 → .470 (−106)K% 11.5% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.69% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 5.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 5.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 15.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 9.87% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .576 → .470; ISO .579 → .503; BABIP .333 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 162 PAwOBA .346 → .254 (−91)K% 12.3% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.35% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷1.056 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 17.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷0.960 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.94% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .346 → .254; ISO .143 → .108; BABIP .299 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BAL Black · 190 PAwOBA .299 → .205 (−94)K% 21.6% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.58% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.21% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷1.030 | ×0.680 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 14.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.867 | ×0.600 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 4.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.834 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.50% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 106, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .299 → .205; ISO .089 → .059; BABIP .284 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).