Ryan Burrowes

SS Winston-Salem Dash

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#569ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A/ROKCWS	351	.220/.313/.260	1	24	26	—	.173/.250/.205
2025	20	A+/ACWS	429	.255/.345/.355	6	47	59	—	.218/.288/.306
2026	21	AA/A+CWS	565	.256/.368/.391	11	45	72	—	.219/.298/.332
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBCWS	1	.207/.280/.306	0	0	66	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBCWS	174	.213/.286/.323	3	8	72	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBCWS	248	.216/.291/.334	5	11	77	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%76

Speed73

Z-Con%69

K%63

BB%56

Chase%44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 85%

CompsLiover Peguero (age 22) · Braulio Vasquez (age 23) · Johan Rojas (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .306

PA1

HR0

K%28

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	196	158	42	9	1	3	25	34	10	12	0	266	399	392	791	127	315	17	13	359	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	178	158	41	8	3	2	12	51	5	12	5	259	331	386	718	127	368	29	7	318	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	322	280	57	7	1	1	32	107	5	22	4	204	297	246	543	43	316	33	10	255	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	29	24	10	0	0	0	3	8	1	2	1	417	500	417	917		588	28	10	410	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	130	114	29	7	1	2	12	34	3	16	2	254	341	386	727	132	342	26	9	327	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	299	258	66	8	1	4	27	76	9	31	4	256	347	341	688	85	343	25	9	313	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	162	139	34	2	1	2	18	36	2	11	2	245	340	317	656	72	311	22	11	300	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	403	337	88	21	3	9	56	86	8	34	9	261	379	421	800	160	326	21	14	360	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	196	166	29	6	1	1	17	42	10	12	0	175	290	241	531	66	210	21	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	178	162	28	5	2	1	8	74	5	12	5	173	234	247	481	74	293	42	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	322	288	46	5	1	1	24	147	5	22	4	160	237	194	431	35	297	46	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	29	25	8	0	0	0	2	12	1	2	1	320	393	320	713		481	41	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	130	118	25	5	1	2	8	47	3	16	2	212	279	322	601	110	312	36	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	299	267	59	7	1	4	18	103	9	31	4	221	293	300	592	79	316	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	162	144	32	2	1	2	13	44	2	11	2	222	296	292	587	69	291	27	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	403	359	78	17	3	8	34	113	8	34	9	217	299	348	647	131	287	28	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	196	166	29	6	1	1	17	42	10	12	0	175	290	241	531	66	222	21	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	—	196	158	42	9	1	3	25	34	10	12	0	266	399	392	791	127	315	17	13	359	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	178	162	28	5	2	1	8	74	5	12	5	173	234	247	481	74	307	42	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	178	158	41	8	3	2	12	51	5	12	5	259	331	386	718	127	368	29	7	318	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	313	54	5	1	1	26	158	6	24	5	173	249	204	454	32	331	45	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	351	304	67	7	1	1	35	115	6	24	5	220	313	260	573	39	340	33	10	268	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	429	385	82	12	2	5	26	149	12	47	6	213	284	294	577	81	328	35	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	429	372	95	15	2	6	39	110	12	47	6	255	345	355	700	99	342	26	9	317	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	565	503	110	19	4	10	47	157	10	45	11	219	298	332	630	113	296	28	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	565	476	122	23	4	11	74	122	10	45	11	256	368	391	759	134	322	22	13	343	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	196	167	29	6	1	1	17	42	10	12	0	174	290	240	530	66	210	21	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	178	163	28	5	2	1	8	74	5	12	5	172	234	245	480	74	293	42	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	316	54	5	1	1	26	158	6	24	5	171	249	203	452	32	312	45	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	429	388	82	12	2	5	26	149	12	47	6	211	284	291	575	80	315	35	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	565	503	110	19	4	10	47	157	10	45	11	219	298	332	630	113	288	28	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	316	54	5	1	1	26	158	6	24	5	171	249	203	452	32	312	45	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	429	388	82	12	2	5	26	149	12	47	6	211	284	291	575	80	315	35	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	565	503	110	19	4	10	47	157	10	45	11	219	298	332	630	113	288	28	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	644	580	120	21	3	10	49	179	10	31	7	206	280	304	584	98	278	28	8	266	66	-26	+3	+0	+7	+14	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	207	280	306	587	99	278	0	0	267	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CWS	35%	504	453	96	17	3	9	39	137	7	23	5	212	286	321	606	109	279	27	8	275	72	-17	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CWS	46%	537	481	104	18	3	11	43	143	8	24	5	216	290	331	621	116	280	27	8	281	77	-15	+3	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	560	502	110	19	3	12	45	148	8	24	5	218	293	337	630	120	281	26	8	285	79	-14	+3	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	578	518	113	20	3	12	47	151	8	24	5	219	294	341	635	122	282	26	8	287	80	-14	+3	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	582	522	115	20	3	13	47	152	8	23	5	219	294	342	636	122	282	26	8	287	81	-13	+3	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	576	516	113	20	3	12	47	152	8	20	4	218	292	337	630	120	281	26	8	285	79	-15	+2	-1	+6	+12	0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	CWS	53%	562	505	109	19	3	11	45	149	7	16	4	215	290	331	621	116	280	27	8	281	76	-16	+2	-1	+6	+12	0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	550	494	106	19	2	11	44	148	7	13	3	213	286	324	610	111	278	27	8	277	73	-17	+1	-2	+6	+12	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CWS	35%	174	155	33	6	1	3	14	47	3	8	2	213	286	323	609	110	280	27	8	276	72	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CWS	46%	248	222	47	8	1	5	20	66	4	11	2	216	291	334	624	117	281	27	8	282	77	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	289	260	57	10	2	6	23	76	4	12	3	219	293	340	633	121	282	26	8	286	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	314	282	62	11	2	7	25	82	4	13	3	220	295	343	638	123	282	26	8	288	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	316	283	63	11	2	7	26	82	4	12	3	220	295	344	639	124	282	26	8	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	313	281	62	11	2	7	25	82	4	11	2	219	293	340	633	121	282	26	8	286	79	-8	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	CWS	53%	298	268	57	10	1	6	24	79	4	9	2	216	291	334	624	117	280	27	8	282	76	-8	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	288	259	56	10	1	6	23	78	4	7	2	213	287	326	613	113	279	27	8	278	73	-9	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2240	2010	437	77	12	47	180	592	31	83	19	217	292	338	630	120	282	26	8	284	70	-60	+9	-2	+24	+49	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	126	22	3	14	52	172	9	24	6	216	290	336	626	120	280	26	8	284	70	-17	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6378	5709	1208	206	34	112	497	1818	107	317	65	212	287	318	605	107	287	29	8	272	70	-129	+20	-4	+50	+101	3.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	122	21	3	11	51	185	11	32	7	210	286	313	598	103	285	28	8	272	70	-18	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 403 PAwOBA .352 → .281 (−71)K% 21.3% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.34%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	27.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.90%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	8.44%
HBP% /PA	1.99%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	1.55%
Singles /BIP	21.91%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.032	×1.012	19.91%
Doubles /BIP	8.37%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.032	×1.012	6.82%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.032	×1.012	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	3.59%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	3.19%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .352 → .281; ISO .160 → .137; BABIP .326 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 162 PAwOBA .297 → .259 (−38)K% 22.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	7.87%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.08%
Singles /BIP	28.16%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.983	×1.042	26.54%
Doubles /BIP	1.94%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.983	×1.042	1.81%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.983	×1.042	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.62%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .297 → .259; ISO .072 → .063; BABIP .311 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 299 PAwOBA .308 → .255 (−54)K% 25.4% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.42%	÷1.009	×1.360	—	—	34.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.03%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.14%
HBP% /PA	3.01%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	2.38%
Singles /BIP	29.12%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.020	×1.015	27.25%
Doubles /BIP	4.40%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.020	×1.015	3.81%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.091	×0.910	×1.020	×1.015	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	2.20%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.09%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .308 → .255; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .343 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 130 PAwOBA .321 → .256 (−65)K% 26.2% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.15%	÷0.955	×1.310	—	—	35.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.23%	÷0.949	×0.600	—	×1.027	5.99%
HBP% /PA	2.31%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	1.82%
Singles /BIP	23.75%	÷0.942	×0.870	×1.007	×1.027	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	8.75%	÷0.984	×0.780	×1.007	×1.027	7.17%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷1.045	×0.850	×1.007	×1.027	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷0.923	×0.880	—	×1.027	2.45%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .321 → .256; ISO .132 → .107; BABIP .342 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 322 PAwOBA .253 → .198 (−55)K% 33.2% → 45.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.23%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	45.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.94%	÷0.957	×0.690	—	×1.030	7.38%
HBP% /PA	1.55%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.25%
Singles /BIP	27.75%	÷0.980	×0.920	×0.998	×1.030	26.79%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷1.056	×0.830	×0.998	×1.030	3.27%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.998	×1.030	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.58%	÷0.820	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .253 → .198; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .316 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL White Sox · 29 PAwOBA .414 → .303 (−111)K% 27.6% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.59%	÷0.990	×1.440	—	—	40.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.017	×0.620	—	×0.995	6.27%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	2.47%
Singles /BIP	62.50%	÷0.993	×0.820	—	×0.995	51.34%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.076	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .414 → .303; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .588 → .481. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 178 PAwOBA .312 → .206 (−106)K% 28.7% → 41.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.65%	÷0.994	×1.440	—	—	41.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.74%	÷0.951	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.43%
HBP% /PA	2.81%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.04%
Singles /BIP	26.17%	÷0.991	×0.820	×1.000	×1.008	21.80%
Doubles /BIP	7.48%	÷0.942	×0.720	×1.000	×1.008	5.76%
Triples /BIP	2.80%	÷1.099	×0.720	×1.000	×1.008	1.85%
Home runs /BIP	1.87%	÷2.194	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.67%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .312 → .206; ISO .127 → .067; BABIP .368 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL White Sox · 196 PAwOBA .356 → .241 (−116)K% 17.3% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.35%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	21.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.76%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.91%
HBP% /PA	5.10%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.60%
Singles /BIP	23.39%	÷1.017	×0.680	×1.034	×1.008	16.29%
Doubles /BIP	7.26%	÷1.005	×0.600	×1.034	×1.008	4.51%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.979	×0.600	×1.034	×1.008	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.42%	÷1.218	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.94%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 101, 3B 96, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .356 → .241; ISO .127 → .069; BABIP .315 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddie Patek'68-'81 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,246 PA	9.4	6,246	41	385	242*	311*	356*	+66	-5	14.7	15.3
/162	664	4	41	+7.0	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.4	2,242	46	83	217	289	335	+24	+12	3.6	3.5
/162	664	14	25	+7.1	+3.6	1.1	pk7: 3
#6Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Burrowes (OGILVIE)	22	40	25	60	35	205/277/302	97	278	3	10	28%	8%	66	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Liover Peguero 2023 · AA	22	48→49	43→45	56→55	38	232/271/342	110	314	10	23	29%	5%	72	-0.7	225/272/350	125	297	13	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	219/270/346	127	285	14	18	28%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	41	40	55→65	40	193/274/284	91	302	8	31	36%	8%	61	-1.5	218/287/317	99	301	6	26	28%	7%	73	-0.6	227/297/325	98	303	3	32	24%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	44→54	41→45	63→65	42	216/263/320	104	271	8	35	23%	5%	63	-1.3	248/290/352	104	312	8	37	22%	5%	81	-0.1	260/302/359	100	326	7	41	21%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Noel Cuevas 2014 · A	22	47→52	43→45	56→55	41	231/276/347	116	293	10	24	24%	5%	75	-0.5	229/266/325	96	296	7	17	24%	4%	65	-1.2	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→51	39→40	65	44	225/283/314	88	297	6	35	25%	6%	70	-0.9	223/278/313	90	298	6	34	25%	6%	68	-1.0	218/272/304	87	291	6	36	26%	6%	61	-1.2
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39→44	43→45	59→60	44	194/276/302	108	285	11	31	34%	9%	66	-1.1	210/284/328	118	287	11	35	29%	8%	74	-0.5	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Tito Polo 2017 · A	22	46→54	43→45	54→60	40	225/280/331	107	289	11	25	26%	5%	74	-0.6	231/283/339	108	308	9	28	27%	5%	76	-0.4	234/283/340	106	316	7	34	27%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Felix Valerio 2023 · AA	22	43→49	44→45	53→55	49	215/287/333	118	255	12	23	20%	8%	76	-0.4	206/269/308	102	265	9	16	25%	7%	64	-1.3	193/254/279	87	254	8	13	26%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	49→51	39→45	57→55	44	230/286/323	92	310	5	24	26%	7%	72	-0.7	229/287/333	104	299	7	20	24%	7%	76	-0.4	228/286/332	104	292	8	18	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Jorge Mateo 2017 · A	22	45→50	40→50	61→65	39	214/259/313	98	298	6	34	30%	5%	60	-1.6	205/248/327	122	300	8	28	33%	5%	59	-1.6	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Lolo Sanchez 2021 · A	22	45	39→45	54→55	45	215/279/308	93	262	6	21	20%	6%	68	-1.0	214/290/322	108	258	12	18	21%	8%	76	-0.4	204/284/298	95	242	11	17	20%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Clay Fuller 2009 · A	22	46	42→45	59→55	44	214/295/330	116	316	8	20	32%	8%	79	-0.2	209/279/321	112	294	11	18	31%	8%	71	-0.8	203/269/311	107	279	12	18	30%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Eric Brown Jr. 2023 · A	22	45→33	44→40	59→55	46	221/296/340	119	291	10	27	26%	8%	82	-0.0	195/262/276	81	252	7	28	24%	7%	55	-2.0	172/239/236	65	221	6	29	24%	7%	34	-1.6
✕Tyler Goeddel 2015 · A	22	46→52	41→45	56→55	42	218/276/326	108	307	7	18	30%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	296	9	17	24%	7%	78	-0.3	228/291/335	107	287	8	18	22%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Jacob Young 2022 · A	23	43→53	38→40	57→60	44	204/256/283	80	261	5	21	23%	6%	53	-2.1	240/302/316	76	303	4	31	20%	7%	77	-0.3	242/306/331	89	291	7	29	18%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Shane Sasaki 2022 · A	22	44→54	38→45	58→60	39	202/262/281	79	326	6	22	38%	7%	55	-2.0	232/296/337	105	342	9	27	32%	8%	80	-0.1	233/300/333	100	341	8	32	32%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Kenny Wilson 2013 · A	23	43→51	37→40	58→60	43	200/275/272	72	286	4	29	29%	7%	58	-1.7	224/281/310	86	309	5	27	27%	6%	68	-1.0	232/284/321	90	316	5	29	27%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2015 · A	23	45→48	40→50	57→60	39	215/267/310	95	294	7	25	28%	5%	63	-1.4	203/260/305	102	292	7	30	31%	6%	59	-1.6	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Dasan Brown 2024 · A	22	42→40	39→40	52→60	39	197/268/280	84	303	7	21	35%	6%	58	-1.7	188/264/271	83	289	7	31	35%	8%	54	-2.0	172/256/247	75	267	7	41	35%	8%	43	-1.4

Ryan Burrowes

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps