Rosnel Alarcon — OGILVIE

Rosnel AlarconOF DSL Rangers Red

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .297 / .288

PA87

HR1

K%23

BB%8

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	156	45	11	0	1	22	26	17	11	4	288	431	378	809	90	341	13	11	379	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	75	8	1	0	0	19	11	6	5	2	107	330	120	450	13	125	11	19	253	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	163	32	7	0	0	15	33	17	11	4	196	328	239	567	43	239	17	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	81	6	1	0	0	13	13	6	5	2	74	250	86	336	12	85	13	13	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	163	32	7	0	0	15	33	17	11	4	196	328	239	567	43	246	17	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	156	45	11	0	1	22	26	17	11	4	288	431	378	809	90	341	13	11	379	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	81	6	1	0	0	13	13	6	5	2	74	250	86	336	12	88	13	13	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	75	8	1	0	0	19	11	6	5	2	107	330	120	450	13	125	11	19	253	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	161	32	7	0	0	15	33	17	11	4	199	328	242	570	43	239	17	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	81	6	1	0	0	13	13	6	5	2	74	250	86	336	12	85	13	13	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	195	161	32	7	0	0	15	33	17	11	4	199	328	242	570	43	239	17	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	100	81	6	1	0	0	13	13	6	5	2	74	250	86	336	12	85	13	13	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	210	187	40	7	1	1	16	48	5	4	1	218	299	290	590	73	284	23	8	273	71	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	177	156	35	6	1	2	14	40	5	4	1	222	304	305	609	83	286	23	8	280	76	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	314	278	63	11	2	4	25	71	8	7	2	225	308	317	625	92	287	23	8	286	80	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	TEX	54%	415	368	84	15	2	6	33	93	11	9	3	228	310	328	638	99	288	22	8	291	83	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	482	428	99	18	3	7	39	108	12	11	3	231	312	336	648	105	289	22	8	295	86	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	526	465	109	19	3	9	43	118	13	11	3	233	314	343	657	110	290	22	8	298	88	-8	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	553	490	114	20	3	9	45	124	13	12	3	233	314	345	659	111	290	22	8	299	89	-8	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	567	503	117	21	3	10	46	127	13	12	3	233	314	345	659	112	290	22	8	299	89	-8	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	571	507	118	21	3	10	46	129	13	12	4	232	313	342	656	110	289	23	8	298	88	-8	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	569	505	116	21	3	9	46	129	13	11	4	230	311	338	649	108	288	23	8	295	86	-10	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	561	498	114	20	3	9	45	129	13	10	4	228	308	331	639	104	287	23	8	291	83	-11	+0	-1	-3	+12	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	61	54	12	2	0	1	5	14	2	1	0	222	304	306	610	84	285	23	8	281	76	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	152	135	30	5	1	2	12	34	4	3	1	226	308	319	627	93	286	22	8	287	80	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	TEX	54%	225	199	45	8	1	3	18	51	6	5	1	229	311	330	640	101	287	23	8	292	83	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	273	242	56	10	2	4	22	61	7	6	2	231	313	339	651	107	289	22	8	296	86	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	297	264	62	11	2	5	24	66	7	6	2	233	314	346	660	113	290	22	8	300	88	-4	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	312	277	65	11	2	6	25	70	7	7	2	234	315	348	663	114	290	22	8	301	89	-4	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	320	283	66	11	2	6	26	72	8	7	2	234	315	349	663	115	289	22	8	301	89	-4	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	317	281	66	11	2	6	26	71	7	7	2	233	314	346	660	113	289	22	8	299	88	-5	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	312	277	64	11	2	5	25	71	7	6	2	231	312	341	652	110	288	23	8	296	86	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	-0.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	300	266	61	10	2	5	24	69	7	5	2	228	309	334	643	106	286	23	8	293	83	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2569	2278	527	90	16	43	207	579	62	53	16	231	313	342	654	110	290	23	8	296	83	-43	+4	-1	-15	+56	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	134	23	4	11	52	146	16	13	4	233	314	344	657	111	291	22	8	296	83	-11	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5117	4520	1025	183	27	76	417	1134	139	117	36	227	311	330	641	103	285	22	8	291	83	-84	+8	-2	-29	+104	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	130	23	3	10	53	144	18	15	5	226	312	329	641	103	284	22	8	291	83	-11	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,657	41	55	231	309	337	-16	+0	1.7	1.7
/162	664	10	14	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rosnel Alarcon (OGILVIE)	19	50	20	55	40	216/297/288	72	284	1	2	23%	8%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Cooper Pratt 2024 · A	19	49→52	37→40	54→55	41	226/288/305	78	332	4	11	31%	6%	70	-0.9	228/299/323	95	293	8	23	23%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/324	95	284	8	29	21%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2009 · A	19	47→57	36→40	47→50	47	220/280/288	68	271	3	9	19%	6%	63	-1.4	249/304/321	72	295	3	9	16%	6%	79	-0.2	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Nick Allen 2018 · A	19	43→53	37→40	49→50	42	205/255/273	69	279	4	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	210/260/281	71	273	2	14	22%	5%	53	-2.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Emaarion Boyd 2023 · A	19	49→55	37→40	51→65	46	227/298/303	77	306	4	16	26%	8%	74	-0.6	226/297/294	68	295	3	34	23%	6%	71	-0.8	218/291/286	67	287	3	43	23%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Mikey Edie 2016 · A	19	47	34→30	49→50	43	217/292/269	52	283	2	13	22%	6%	64	-1.3	211/266/268	57	313	2	15	31%	4%	53	-2.1	184/233/237	53	275	2	10	32%	3%	30	-1.5
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2018 · A	19	47	34→40	52→65	44	215/281/268	53	304	1	15	28%	7%	59	-1.7	198/257/271	73	304	5	8	34%	6%	51	-2.3	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Tim Lopes 2013 · A	19	48→58	37→45	55	47	222/273/314	92	274	2	8	19%	6%	65	-1.2	233/277/307	74	298	3	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	267/317/348	81	330	3	20	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Ryan Brett 2011 · A	19	47→57	37→45	54→60	42	219/270/295	76	299	3	17	26%	6%	60	-1.6	240/286/340	100	292	6	24	19%	6%	76	-0.4	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Luis Lara 2024 · A	19	46→56	36→40	52→60	49	218/283/285	67	271	3	18	20%	7%	63	-1.3	235/308/311	76	297	4	28	21%	8%	79	-0.2	245/323/325	80	308	5	31	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Tim Kennelly 2006 · A	19	46→52	38→40	48→40	51	217/292/304	87	269	4	7	20%	9%	72	-0.7	214/271/302	88	296	5	6	27%	7%	63	-1.4	239/299/330	91	299	5	4	20%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	43	36→40	54→55	48	199/259/271	71	239	3	14	17%	6%	51	-2.3	231/283/301	70	265	2	14	13%	5%	66	-1.1	281/326/362	81	310	5	22	11%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Johan Rojas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	51→65	45	215/269/298	83	268	3	11	20%	6%	61	-1.5	227/275/338	111	290	9	31	24%	5%	72	-0.7	260/302/359	100	326	7	41	21%	5%	85	+0.2
●L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	53	235/305/308	72	289	4	11	19%	9%	76	-0.4	247/295/316	69	318	4	12	22%	6%	74	-0.6	288/348/379	91	345	5	15	17%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Lorenzo Cedrola 2017 · A	19	47→57	36→45	52→50	44	219/279/289	70	258	3	14	16%	4%	63	-1.4	239/277/312	73	290	3	15	18%	3%	66	-1.1	257/302/356	100	301	7	16	17%	3%	83	+0.0
✕Andruw Monasterio 2016 · A	19	43→53	36→45	53→55	48	202/265/267	65	246	3	13	19%	7%	52	-2.2	213/267/272	59	274	2	10	21%	6%	54	-2.0	241/316/348	107	322	9	15	26%	9%	89	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps