Jose Carrillo — OGILVIE

Jose CarrilloC DSL Cubs Blue

Age 19 S/R 5'9" / 171 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .293 / .283

PA6

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	54	9	3	0	0	13	15	6	3	2	167	373	222	596	56	231	20	17	303	92	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	61	7	2	0	0	8	22	6	3	2	115	280	148	428	33	182	29	11	215	32	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	61	7	2	0	0	8	22	6	3	2	115	280	148	428	33	179	29	11	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	54	9	3	0	0	13	15	6	3	2	167	373	222	596	56	231	20	17	303	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	61	7	2	0	0	8	22	6	3	2	115	280	148	428	33	182	29	11	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	61	7	2	0	0	8	22	6	3	2	115	280	148	428	33	182	29	11	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	333	200	533		290	33	17	269	68	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	161	142	30	6	1	2	14	44	4	2	1	211	300	310	610	99	292	27	9	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	CHC	48%	302	265	58	12	2	4	26	80	8	4	1	219	308	325	632	106	293	26	9	285	79	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	CHC	54%	407	359	79	16	2	6	35	107	10	6	1	220	307	326	633	106	294	26	9	289	82	-9	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	CHC	57%	476	420	93	19	3	7	41	124	12	7	2	221	309	331	640	110	294	26	9	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	CHC	57%	520	457	102	21	3	8	45	135	13	8	2	223	311	335	645	112	295	26	9	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	CHC	57%	520	457	102	21	3	8	45	135	13	8	2	223	311	335	645	112	295	26	9	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	520	457	103	21	3	9	45	135	13	8	2	225	313	344	656	118	295	26	9	296	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	520	457	103	21	3	9	45	135	13	8	2	225	313	344	656	118	295	26	9	296	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	520	456	102	21	3	8	46	136	13	7	2	224	313	336	648	112	294	26	9	295	86	-9	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	520	456	101	20	3	8	46	137	13	7	2	221	311	331	642	110	294	26	9	293	84	-10	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	520	456	100	20	3	8	46	138	13	6	1	219	309	329	638	110	292	27	9	290	82	-11	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	CHC	57%	504	441	94	19	2	7	45	136	13	5	1	213	305	313	618	100	290	27	9	286	80	-12	+1	-3	+9	+11	0.6
2039	32	MLB MLE	CHC	59%	488	430	90	18	2	6	43	133	12	4	1	209	299	302	601	93	286	27	9	280	76	-14	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.2
2040	33	MLB MLE	CHC	61%	446	393	81	16	2	5	39	124	11	3	1	206	296	295	591	89	282	28	9	274	71	-15	+0	-4	+8	+10	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	55	49	10	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	204	291	306	597	102	294	27	9	260	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	CHC	48%	146	129	29	6	1	2	12	39	4	2	0	225	310	333	644	109	295	27	8	267	79	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	CHC	54%	221	194	43	9	1	3	19	58	6	3	1	222	311	325	635	103	296	26	9	272	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	CHC	57%	269	237	53	11	2	4	23	70	7	4	1	224	311	338	648	114	297	26	9	275	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	CHC	57%	294	260	58	12	2	4	25	76	7	4	1	223	308	331	639	108	298	26	9	276	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	CHC	57%	294	260	59	12	2	5	25	76	7	4	1	227	312	346	658	119	298	26	9	277	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	294	259	59	12	2	5	25	76	8	4	1	228	315	347	663	120	297	26	9	278	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	288	254	58	12	2	5	25	75	7	4	1	228	315	350	665	122	297	26	9	278	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	285	251	55	11	2	4	25	75	7	4	1	219	307	327	634	108	297	26	9	277	86	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	278	244	54	11	2	4	25	73	7	4	1	221	312	332	644	111	296	26	9	275	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	274	241	54	11	2	4	24	73	7	3	1	224	312	336	649	112	294	27	9	272	82	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	CHC	57%	285	251	55	11	2	4	25	77	7	3	1	219	307	327	634	108	292	27	9	268	80	-7	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	CHC	59%	289	254	55	11	2	4	26	79	7	2	1	217	307	323	629	106	288	27	9	263	76	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	CHC	61%	272	239	49	10	1	3	24	76	7	2	0	205	296	293	589	88	284	28	9	256	71	-9	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3544	3122	691	141	23	52	308	938	89	44	11	221	309	331	640	110	298	26	9	272	82	-75	+4	-8	+63	+77	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	127	26	4	10	56	172	16	8	2	222	308	333	641	112	298	26	9	272	82	-14	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6505	5712	1246	253	35	95	570	1723	167	86	23	218	307	325	632	106	293	26	9	289	82	-137	+8	-15	+115	+139	11.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	123	25	3	9	57	172	17	9	2	215	305	317	622	102	290	26	9	289	82	-14	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.4	3,615	53	47	220	305	326	+65	+36	9.1	7.6
/162	664	10	9	+11.9	+6.6	1.7	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Carrillo (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	205/293/283	78	290	0	1	28%	8%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	45→42	39→50	49→30	44	209/283/294	85	312	6	8	32%	8%	66	-1.1	208/290/371	163	304	19	3	35%	10%	87	+0.4	198/292/375	177	282	21	1	35%	11%	85	+0.1
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→50	36→40	50→55	48	201/279/276	75	282	2	6	28%	9%	60	-1.6	217/294/306	89	287	6	14	24%	9%	73	-0.6	220/305/307	86	295	7	22	25%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Ramón Cabrera 2009 · A	19	43→53	40	51→40	49	209/274/305	96	254	7	7	20%	8%	65	-1.2	237/285/325	88	280	4	5	16%	6%	73	-0.6	271/325/356	85	309	2	3	12%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→45	51→50	46	211/284/282	71	293	4	12	28%	8%	63	-1.3	242/292/348	106	310	7	11	23%	6%	80	-0.1	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Ronald Hernandez 2023 · A	19	39→47	39→40	48→50	44	190/264/271	81	264	6	5	29%	7%	54	-2.0	203/287/288	85	306	7	8	33%	9%	67	-1.1	197/281/279	82	296	7	12	33%	9%	60	-1.0
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44→43	39→55	52→50	46	210/278/299	89	296	6	9	30%	8%	65	-1.2	190/247/308	118	273	11	8	33%	7%	55	-1.9	213/305/387	174	267	21	12	27%	11%	94	+0.7
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	44→47	37→45	50→55	45	209/273/283	74	281	5	13	26%	7%	59	-1.6	226/271/302	76	301	4	18	24%	6%	61	-1.5	209/274/322	113	274	9	12	26%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Jose Herrera 2016 · A	19	45	36→40	48→40	47	210/281/271	61	281	3	4	25%	8%	60	-1.6	204/255/286	82	260	6	3	23%	6%	53	-2.1	210/292/298	88	277	8	3	26%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Maick Collado 2022 · A	19	42	38→40	48→45	51	198/287/276	78	260	5	6	24%	10%	64	-1.3	216/293/291	75	279	5	7	22%	9%	69	-0.9	211/293/279	67	267	5	6	21%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/288/272	81	291	5	8	32%	10%	64	-1.3	194/290/296	102	287	9	14	33%	10%	70	-0.8	175/281/296	121	259	13	27	34%	10%	66	-0.9
✕Angel Martínez 2021 · A	19	47	37→50	51→50	48	218/284/299	80	266	3	10	19%	7%	67	-1.1	212/273/327	115	277	10	10	26%	7%	70	-0.9	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Nick Franklin 2010 · A	19	45→49	40→50	49→50	41	219/261/311	92	283	7	6	25%	5%	61	-1.5	226/274/358	132	296	14	13	27%	6%	77	-0.3	236/299/368	131	300	12	13	24%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2010 · A	19	45→55	37→45	47→50	45	209/276/285	76	270	3	10	23%	7%	61	-1.5	219/281/303	84	264	4	8	17%	6%	67	-1.1	274/316/367	93	291	7	12	8%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	55	196/303/262	65	273	4	8	27%	12%	68	-1.0	197/297/284	87	275	8	5	28%	11%	70	-0.8	175/284/254	79	245	9	2	29%	12%	58	-0.6
✕Harold Garcia 2007 · A	20	45→55	39→45	46→55	47	211/305/306	95	281	6	9	25%	8%	78	-0.3	229/295/330	101	292	7	15	23%	5%	79	-0.2	253/307/362	109	339	8	26	26%	4%	88	+0.3
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	69	-0.9	213/293/326	113	268	10	14	23%	8%	78	-0.3	212/279/323	110	272	10	12	25%	6%	70	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps