Jose Carrillo — OGILVIE

Jose CarrilloC DSL Cubs Blue

Age 19 S/R 5'9" / 171 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .293 / .284

PA70

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$37M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	61	8	3	0	0	8	22	6	3	2	131	293	180	474	49	205	29	11	217	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	54	9	3	0	0	13	15	6	3	2	167	373	222	596	56	231	20	17	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	CHC	—	70	62	12	3	0	0	6	19	2	1	0	194	286	242	528	48	290	27	9	270	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	CHC	34%	161	142	30	6	1	2	14	44	4	2	1	211	300	310	610	99	292	27	9	279	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	21	MLB	CHC	48%	302	265	58	12	2	4	26	80	8	4	1	219	308	325	632	106	293	26	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2029	22	MLB	CHC	54%	407	359	79	17	2	6	35	107	10	6	1	220	307	329	636	109	294	26	9	290	80	-9	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.1
2030	23	MLB	CHC	57%	476	420	93	19	3	7	41	124	12	7	2	221	309	331	640	110	295	26	9	292	82	-10	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2031	24	MLB	CHC	57%	520	458	102	21	3	8	44	135	13	8	2	223	309	334	643	111	296	26	8	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2032	25	MLB	CHC	57%	520	457	102	21	3	8	45	135	13	8	2	223	311	335	645	112	296	26	9	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2033	26	MLB	CHC	56%	520	457	102	21	3	8	45	135	13	8	2	223	311	335	645	112	296	26	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	27	MLB	CHC	55%	520	457	102	21	3	8	45	136	13	8	2	223	311	335	645	112	295	26	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2035	28	MLB	CHC	55%	520	456	101	21	3	8	46	136	13	7	2	221	311	333	644	112	295	26	9	295	84	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2036	29	MLB	CHC	53%	520	456	101	21	3	8	46	137	13	7	2	221	311	333	644	112	294	26	9	293	82	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2037	30	MLB	CHC	53%	520	456	101	21	3	8	46	139	13	6	1	221	311	333	644	112	293	27	9	290	80	-12	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2038	31	MLB	CHC	52%	504	441	95	20	2	7	45	136	13	5	1	215	307	317	624	102	290	27	9	286	77	-13	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2039	32	MLB	CHC	52%	488	430	89	18	2	6	43	134	12	4	1	207	297	300	597	93	287	27	9	281	73	-15	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.5
2040	33	MLB	CHC	52%	446	393	80	16	2	5	39	124	11	3	1	204	293	293	586	89	282	28	9	274	68	-16	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.0
2041	34	MLB	CHC	47%	390	344	68	13	2	4	34	111	9	2	0	198	287	282	569	84	276	28	9	265	61	-17	+0	-5	+7	+11	-0.4
2027	20	MLB	CHC	34%	55	49	10	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	204	291	306	597	102	293	27	9	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	21	MLB	CHC	48%	146	129	28	6	1	2	12	39	4	2	0	217	303	326	629	109	294	27	8	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	22	MLB	CHC	54%	221	194	43	9	1	3	19	58	6	3	1	222	311	325	635	103	295	26	9	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	23	MLB	CHC	57%	269	237	53	11	2	4	23	70	7	4	1	224	311	338	648	114	296	26	9	275	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	24	MLB	CHC	57%	294	260	59	12	2	5	25	77	7	4	1	227	312	346	658	119	297	26	9	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	25	MLB	CHC	57%	294	260	59	12	2	5	25	76	7	4	1	227	312	346	658	119	297	26	9	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	26	MLB	CHC	56%	294	259	59	12	2	5	25	76	8	4	1	228	315	347	663	120	297	26	9	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2034	27	MLB	CHC	55%	288	254	58	12	2	5	25	75	7	4	1	228	315	350	665	122	297	26	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	28	MLB	CHC	55%	285	251	57	12	2	5	25	75	7	4	1	227	314	351	665	124	296	26	9	277	70	-10	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2036	29	MLB	CHC	53%	278	244	53	11	1	4	25	73	7	4	1	217	308	320	628	102	295	26	9	275	69	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2037	30	MLB	CHC	53%	274	241	52	11	1	4	24	73	7	3	1	216	305	320	625	104	294	27	9	273	67	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2038	31	MLB	CHC	52%	263	231	50	10	1	4	23	71	7	3	1	216	307	320	627	104	291	27	9	269	64	-11	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.0
2039	32	MLB	CHC	52%	253	223	47	10	1	3	22	69	6	2	0	211	299	305	604	94	288	27	9	263	60	-12	+0	-2	+5	+7	-0.1
2040	33	MLB	CHC	52%	231	203	42	8	1	3	20	64	6	2	0	207	297	300	597	94	284	28	9	257	55	-12	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.3
2041	34	MLB	CHC	47%	184	162	32	6	1	2	16	52	4	1	0	198	286	284	570	86	277	28	9	249	48	-11	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3629	3197	702	144	20	55	314	963	91	45	10	220	307	329	636	109	295	27	9	271	66	-140	+5	-10	+65	+103	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	127	26	4	10	56	172	16	8	2	222	309	333	642	112	297	26	9	271	66	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	6959	6114	1323	274	37	97	608	1854	178	89	23	216	306	321	627	105	292	27	9	287	78	-172	+9	-20	+124	+197	14.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	123	26	3	9	57	173	17	8	2	215	305	319	624	103	291	27	9	287	78	-16	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	75	54	9	3	0	0	13	15	6	3	2	167	373	222	596	56	231	20	17	303	90	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	3,699	54	47	219	304	326	+66	+36	8.4	7.1
	/162	664	10	8	219	304	326	+11.9	+6.5	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Carrillo (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	205/293/284	79	290	0	1	28%	8%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	45→43	39→50	49→30	44	211/285/298	86	311	6	8	32%	8%	63	-0.8	210/293/378	168	310	19	3	36%	10%	89	+0.9	201/295/383	183	291	22	1	36%	11%	86	+0.4
✕Ramón Cabrera 2009 · A	19	43→53	40	51→40	49	209/274/305	96	254	7	7	20%	8%	60	-1.0	234/282/320	86	276	4	5	16%	6%	66	-0.6	263/317/347	84	301	3	3	13%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Harold Garcia 2006 · A	19	43→53	37→45	49→55	41	202/272/282	80	293	3	10	30%	6%	54	-1.4	220/300/318	98	281	6	11	23%	6%	76	+0.0	253/307/360	107	342	7	26	27%	4%	86	+0.5
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→51	36→40	50→55	47	200/276/275	74	283	2	6	28%	9%	53	-1.5	220/297/313	93	288	7	14	24%	10%	72	-0.2	227/311/321	94	298	8	22	25%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	44→46	37→45	50→55	45	209/273/283	74	281	5	13	26%	7%	54	-1.4	222/267/297	75	295	4	18	24%	6%	54	-1.4	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	51	193/275/258	65	253	3	8	24%	9%	50	-1.8	200/306/292	92	270	5	6	25%	12%	72	-0.2	182/303/271	88	244	5	5	24%	13%	64	-0.3
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2010 · A	19	45→55	37→45	47→50	45	209/276/285	76	270	3	10	23%	7%	56	-1.3	219/281/303	84	264	4	8	17%	6%	63	-0.9	263/306/353	90	281	7	12	9%	5%	82	+0.4
✕Yolmer Sánchez 2011 · A	19	45→55	36→50	49→50	55	209/304/274	65	270	3	8	22%	11%	66	-0.6	243/294/305	62	311	2	12	21%	5%	68	-0.5	247/310/359	112	308	7	9	21%	7%	86	+0.7
✕Angel Martínez 2021 · A	19	47	37→50	51→50	48	218/284/299	80	266	3	10	19%	7%	63	-0.9	213/274/330	117	278	10	10	26%	7%	66	-0.6	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Ronald Hernandez 2023 · A	19	39→49	39→40	48→50	44	191/264/271	81	267	6	5	29%	7%	48	-1.9	204/288/291	87	311	7	8	33%	9%	63	-0.8	198/281/282	84	299	7	12	33%	9%	56	-0.8
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	61	-1.0	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	69	-0.4	249/317/359	110	296	9	16	18%	9%	89	+0.6
●Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→50	51→50	47	213/285/285	72	291	5	12	27%	8%	59	-1.1	243/293/354	111	312	8	11	23%	6%	80	+0.4	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Herrera 2016 · A	19	45	36→40	48→40	47	210/281/271	61	281	3	4	25%	8%	55	-1.4	204/254/286	82	260	6	3	23%	6%	46	-2.0	206/288/299	93	274	9	3	26%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Omar Casamayor 2006 · A	19	45	37→40	43→55	46	212/282/286	74	280	3	7	24%	7%	59	-1.1	233/290/299	66	278	2	10	16%	6%	65	-0.7	249/301/308	60	288	1	12	13%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	41→43	41→45	51→55	54	194/303/299	105	291	7	16	32%	13%	72	-0.2	205/300/298	93	293	6	20	29%	11%	70	-0.3	210/285/315	105	268	10	21	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Alejandro Flores 2015 · A	19	40	41→50	48→40	43	199/259/294	95	265	9	5	28%	7%	51	-1.7	195/256/288	93	291	8	6	33%	7%	48	-1.9	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Nick Franklin 2010 · A	19	45→50	40→50	49→50	41	219/261/311	92	283	7	6	25%	5%	56	-1.3	224/271/359	135	292	15	13	28%	6%	73	-0.1	237/304/370	133	299	13	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44	39→55	52→50	46	210/278/299	89	296	6	9	30%	8%	60	-1.0	189/246/313	124	271	11	8	33%	7%	50	-1.7	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3