Ronald Hernandez

C Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2256ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+/ANYM	445	.261/.356/.346	5	8	62	—	.220/.288/.289
2025	21	A+NYM	393	.224/.321/.335	6	23	42	—	.179/.247/.263
2026	22	A+NYM	454	.205/.338/.332	10	24	40	—	.161/.250/.265
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBNYM	1	.181/.257/.273	0	0	55	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBNYM	124	.186/.263/.287	2	4	60	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYM	197	.190/.266/.296	4	6	64	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%80

Speed63

Whiff%49

K%46

ISO39

Chase%38

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsTrevor Coleman (age 23) · Michael Papierski (age 25) · Brett Cumberland (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .257 / .273

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%8

BABIP250

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	170	134	28	5	3	3	31	32	3	3	1	209	369	358	727	149	248	19	18	334	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	161	140	33	4	1	2	14	32	6	2	1	236	331	321	653	86	290	20	9	302	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	39	29	5	2	0	0	6	13	2	0	0	172	351	241	593	69	278	33	15	280	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Mets	—	191	139	41	9	1	4	47	37	3	4	1	295	481	460	942	165	370	19	25	424	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	42	36	6	2	0	0	5	16	1	1	0	167	286	222	508	56	300	38	12	248	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	403	351	95	12	2	5	47	96	4	7	2	271	363	359	722	88	359	24	12	331	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	340	76	14	3	6	42	86	7	23	5	224	321	335	657	112	278	22	11	300	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	376	77	14	2	10	70	113	6	24	2	205	338	332	671	128	263	25	15	311	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	170	145	19	3	2	1	20	39	3	3	1	131	250	200	450	69	169	23	12	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	161	145	27	3	1	2	9	47	6	2	1	186	263	262	525	76	243	29	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	39	31	4	2	0	0	4	19	2	0	0	129	270	194	464	65	243	49	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	191	157	32	7	1	3	29	56	3	4	1	204	339	318	657	115	281	29	15	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	42	38	4	1	0	0	3	21	1	1	0	105	190	132	322	26	253	50	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	403	367	85	10	1	5	31	132	4	7	2	232	299	305	604	74	343	33	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	357	64	11	2	5	25	112	7	23	5	179	247	263	510	84	240	28	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	404	65	11	2	9	42	148	6	24	2	161	250	265	515	104	218	33	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	170	145	19	3	2	1	20	39	3	3	1	131	250	200	450	69	168	23	12	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	170	134	28	5	3	3	31	32	3	3	1	209	369	358	727	149	248	19	18	334	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	161	145	27	3	1	2	9	47	6	2	1	186	263	262	525	76	258	29	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	161	140	33	4	1	2	14	32	6	2	1	236	331	321	653	86	290	20	9	302	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	230	188	36	8	1	3	33	75	5	4	1	191	327	293	620	101	289	33	14	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	230	168	46	11	1	4	53	50	5	4	1	274	460	423	883	149	356	22	23	399	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	445	404	89	11	1	5	35	153	5	8	2	220	291	290	580	69	340	34	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	445	387	101	14	2	5	52	112	5	8	2	261	356	346	702	85	354	25	12	324	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	357	64	11	2	5	25	112	7	23	5	179	247	263	510	84	242	28	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	340	76	14	3	6	42	86	7	23	5	224	321	335	657	112	278	22	11	300	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	404	65	11	2	9	42	148	6	24	2	161	250	265	515	104	225	33	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	376	77	14	2	10	70	113	6	24	2	205	338	332	671	128	263	25	15	311	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	170	145	19	3	2	1	20	39	3	3	1	131	250	200	450	69	169	23	12	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	161	145	27	3	1	2	9	47	6	2	1	186	263	262	525	76	243	29	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	230	190	36	8	1	3	33	75	5	4	1	189	327	289	617	100	275	33	14	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	445	402	89	11	1	5	35	153	5	8	2	221	291	291	582	70	335	34	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	358	64	11	2	5	25	112	7	23	5	179	247	263	509	84	240	28	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	403	65	11	2	9	42	148	6	24	2	161	250	266	516	104	218	33	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	445	402	89	11	1	5	35	153	5	8	2	221	291	291	582	70	335	34	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	393	358	64	11	2	5	25	112	7	23	5	179	247	263	509	84	240	28	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	454	403	65	11	2	9	42	148	6	24	2	161	250	266	516	104	218	33	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	564	507	95	16	3	9	46	171	6	17	3	186	262	281	543	94	258	30	8	249	55	-30	+2	-0	+10	+12	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	181	257	273	530	92	250	0	0	244	55	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	408	368	70	12	2	7	33	121	4	12	2	192	268	295	563	103	261	30	8	257	60	-19	+2	+0	+7	+9	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	44%	445	400	78	13	2	9	37	130	5	13	2	195	271	304	575	109	263	29	8	262	64	-19	+2	+0	+8	+10	0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	51%	445	400	79	14	2	9	37	129	5	13	2	198	274	309	583	111	264	29	8	265	66	-18	+2	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	445	400	80	14	2	9	37	128	5	12	2	199	275	311	586	112	265	29	8	267	67	-18	+2	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	445	400	80	14	2	9	37	127	5	11	2	200	275	311	587	112	265	29	8	267	67	-18	+1	-0	+8	+10	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	445	401	80	14	2	9	37	129	4	9	1	197	273	305	578	108	264	29	8	263	64	-19	+1	-1	+8	+10	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	445	401	77	13	2	8	37	130	4	7	1	194	269	297	566	103	262	29	8	258	61	-21	+1	-2	+8	+10	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	124	112	21	3	1	2	10	37	1	4	1	186	263	287	550	101	253	30	8	252	60	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	44%	197	177	34	6	1	4	16	58	2	6	1	190	266	296	562	106	255	29	8	257	64	-9	+1	+0	+4	+4	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	51%	226	203	40	7	1	5	19	65	2	6	1	192	269	301	570	109	256	29	8	260	66	-9	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	233	209	41	7	1	5	20	67	2	6	1	193	270	303	573	110	257	29	9	261	67	-9	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	237	213	42	7	1	5	20	68	2	6	1	194	270	303	573	109	257	29	8	261	67	-9	+1	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	234	211	41	7	1	5	19	68	2	5	1	191	268	297	564	105	255	29	8	258	64	-10	+1	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	232	209	40	7	1	4	19	68	2	3	1	188	264	289	553	101	253	29	8	253	61	-11	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1483	1334	259	44	7	30	123	431	13	36	7	194	269	305	574	111	260	29	8	258	58	-63	+4	-1	+26	+32	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	113	19	3	13	54	189	6	16	3	193	269	303	571	109	259	29	8	258	58	-28	+2	-1	+12	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5141	4602	879	147	24	88	436	1532	66	147	25	191	271	291	561	100	263	30	8	255	58	-143	+11	-2	+59	+71	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	111	19	3	11	55	194	8	19	3	191	270	290	560	100	262	30	8	255	58	-28	+2	-0	+12	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 454 PAwOBA .306 → .228 (−78)K% 24.9% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.89%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	32.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.42%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	9.23%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	1.02%
Singles /BIP	19.39%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.980	×0.998	16.50%
Doubles /BIP	5.32%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.980	×0.998	4.06%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.980	×0.998	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	3.80%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.34%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .306 → .228; ISO .128 → .106; BABIP .263 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 393 PAwOBA .295 → .231 (−64)K% 21.9% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷1.011	×1.310	—	—	28.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.69%	÷1.022	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.35%
HBP% /PA	1.78%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	1.39%
Singles /BIP	20.87%	÷1.021	×0.870	×1.025	×1.012	18.46%
Doubles /BIP	5.51%	÷0.989	×0.780	×1.025	×1.012	4.51%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.051	×0.850	×1.025	×1.012	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.073	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.96%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .295 → .231; ISO .112 → .091; BABIP .278 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 403 PAwOBA .323 → .270 (−54)K% 23.8% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.82%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	32.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.41%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.76%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.79%
Singles /BIP	29.80%	÷0.957	×0.920	×0.999	×1.015	29.05%
Doubles /BIP	4.71%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.999	×1.015	4.15%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.999	×1.015	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.826	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.93%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .323 → .270; ISO .088 → .075; BABIP .359 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 42 PAwOBA .242 → .166 (−76)K% 38.1% → 50.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.10%	÷0.988	×1.310	—	—	50.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.90%	÷0.973	×0.600	—	×1.027	7.54%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	1.88%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.032	×0.870	—	×1.027	17.32%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.005	×0.780	—	×1.027	7.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.929	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.341	×0.880	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .242 → .166; ISO .056 → .037; BABIP .300 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Mets · 191 PAwOBA .419 → .296 (−123)K% 19.4% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.37%	÷0.949	×1.440	—	—	29.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.61%	÷1.004	×0.620	—	×0.995	15.12%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.13%
Singles /BIP	26.47%	÷1.046	×0.820	×0.994	×0.995	20.51%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.953	×0.720	×0.994	×0.995	6.59%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷0.979	×0.720	×0.994	×0.995	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷1.040	×0.780	—	×0.995	2.93%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .419 → .296; ISO .165 → .125; BABIP .370 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 39 PAwOBA .290 → .223 (−67)K% 33.3% → 47.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.947	×1.360	—	—	47.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×1.030	11.19%
HBP% /PA	5.13%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	4.12%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.054	×0.920	—	×1.030	16.86%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.987	×0.830	—	×1.030	10.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.274	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .290 → .223; ISO .069 → .054; BABIP .278 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 161 PAwOBA .296 → .224 (−73)K% 19.9% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.88%	÷0.981	×1.440	—	—	29.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.942	×0.620	—	×1.008	5.77%
HBP% /PA	3.73%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.70%
Singles /BIP	24.07%	÷0.983	×0.820	×1.025	×1.008	20.74%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.003	×0.720	×1.025	×1.008	2.75%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.040	×0.720	×1.025	×1.008	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷0.852	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.71%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 108, K 96, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .296 → .224; ISO .086 → .066; BABIP .290 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Marlins · 170 PAwOBA .328 → .215 (−113)K% 18.8% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.82%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.082	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.51%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.24%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.963	×0.680	×1.037	×1.008	12.29%
Doubles /BIP	4.90%	÷0.990	×0.600	×1.037	×1.008	3.10%
Triples /BIP	2.94%	÷1.145	×0.600	×1.037	×1.008	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.399	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 93, 2B 98, 3B 129, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .328 → .215; ISO .149 → .076; BABIP .248 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.2	1,484	29	36	198	270	307	+26	+0	0.9	0.9
/162	664	13	16	+11.9	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ronald Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	185/260/278	94	258	3	6	30%	8%	55	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trevor Coleman 2011 · A	23	39	41→40	42→40	40	194/248/286	93	255	9	5	27%	5%	51	-2.2	209/285/309	100	269	9	6	24%	9%	70	-0.8	205/292/296	91	259	9	3	23%	11%	68	-0.6
✕Michael Papierski 2021 · A	25	38→45	39→40	39→40	47	187/273/268	80	267	8	5	31%	9%	57	-1.8	208/294/305	97	274	9	3	25%	10%	73	-0.6	203/293/298	95	263	9	0	25%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Brett Cumberland 2017 · A	22	38→41	39→45	37→30	36	183/253/269	87	285	7	4	36%	5%	50	-2.3	195/293/323	128	297	13	2	36%	8%	78	-0.3	187/294/320	133	282	15	0	36%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jose Lozada 2009 · A	23	41	40→45	41→45	39	200/240/294	93	262	7	6	26%	4%	49	-2.4	208/252/298	90	271	6	6	25%	4%	54	-2.0	235/284/270	35	312	2	12	24%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Matt Kennelly 2011 · A	22	42	40	34→40	41	209/253/296	87	273	8	3	26%	6%	54	-2.0	223/278/305	82	285	6	4	22%	6%	66	-1.1	232/288/295	62	293	2	2	20%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Joseph Odom 2015 · A	23	39	41→45	40→30	44	192/261/285	93	276	9	5	32%	8%	56	-1.9	210/255/322	112	283	11	3	29%	5%	61	-1.5	186/243/289	103	304	11	2	40%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43	43→40	37→40	46	210/282/321	110	271	10	5	25%	7%	72	-0.7	208/270/297	89	260	7	5	22%	7%	61	-1.5	190/251/254	63	231	4	0	18%	6%	42	-1.7
✕Stephen Perez 2014 · A	23	40→48	38→30	40→50	39	196/242/274	78	278	5	6	31%	5%	45	-2.7	205/267/274	69	276	4	14	25%	8%	55	-2.0	202/276/258	55	273	4	15	26%	8%	54	-0.9
✕Frandy De La Rosa 2018 · A	22	41→44	41→40	40→50	39	200/254/297	96	293	9	9	34%	6%	55	-1.9	205/256/320	115	325	12	6	38%	6%	61	-1.5	184/233/300	116	292	16	0	41%	5%	45	-0.9
✕Brett Pope 2019 · A	23	47	38→40	39→50	48	223/296/304	81	295	5	8	25%	8%	73	-0.6	220/281/301	81	290	5	10	24%	7%	67	-1.1	216/273/283	66	282	4	10	23%	6%	56	-1.0
✕Brady Whalen 2021 · A	23	42→49	40→45	39→40	44	206/267/298	92	274	7	3	27%	7%	61	-1.5	219/272/337	118	275	12	7	24%	6%	72	-0.7	220/273/344	123	268	13	7	22%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Greg Picart 2009 · A	23	42	39→40	40→50	40	204/241/291	88	249	6	5	21%	4%	49	-2.4	225/273/290	65	268	3	10	17%	5%	60	-1.6	230/282/278	48	272	2	11	15%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Rayder Ascanio 2019 · A	23	42→48	40	40→45	44	207/261/295	88	262	8	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	215/266/310	95	274	9	6	24%	6%	63	-1.4	209/260/302	93	264	10	4	24%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Austin Rei 2017 · A	23	39	41→40	39→40	43	192/269/284	92	263	8	4	29%	7%	59	-1.6	186/260/277	91	278	7	4	33%	7%	55	-2.0	169/248/255	86	260	6	3	34%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	40→45	37→40	45→50	41	194/251/261	67	280	6	14	32%	7%	46	-2.6	206/271/296	90	295	7	11	30%	7%	62	-1.4	206/281/301	95	299	7	14	31%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Jhon Nuñez 2018 · A	23	48	41→40	42→50	38	234/273/331	96	302	8	9	25%	4%	70	-0.9	229/277/314	85	293	7	10	23%	5%	68	-1.0	229/279/305	76	290	6	10	22%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Kevin Ahrens 2012 · A	23	40→46	43→45	38→40	44	203/264/315	112	264	11	2	27%	7%	63	-1.3	203/267/303	100	267	9	2	26%	8%	62	-1.4	210/264/315	104	262	8	3	22%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Michael Fisher 2008 · A	23	48→50	38→40	36→45	42	227/279/310	83	298	6	3	25%	6%	68	-1.0	216/256/290	74	295	5	6	27%	5%	53	-2.1	224/260/309	84	293	7	5	25%	4%	57	-1.3
✕Elevys Gonzalez 2013 · AA	23	44→54	41→45	42→45	42	214/267/316	102	294	7	7	29%	6%	64	-1.3	194/263/295	101	282	8	13	32%	8%	59	-1.7	129/221/226	96	184	9	25	33%	9%	27	-1.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2019 · AA	23	42→45	39→50	42→50	45	204/264/287	83	263	6	8	24%	7%	57	-1.8	214/269/346	132	276	15	8	27%	6%	72	-0.7	210/267/353	143	267	17	14	28%	6%	71	-0.5

Ronald Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps