Dervy Ventura

SS Inland Empire 66ers
Age 23 S/R 5'10" / 165 lbs A K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2345ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420ROKSEA193.273/.432/.4405884—.199/.307/.307
202521A/INTL2 orgs458.273/.379/.35934374—.233/.316/.303
202622ASEA460.247/.361/.36273560—.200/.284/.286
2027PROJMLE23MLBSEA570.191/.279/.27262159-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB24MLBSEA125.196/.283/.2862465-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB25MLBSEA205.199/.287/.2973769-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%74
Chase%71
Speed70
Z-Con%51
Whiff%48
wOBA43
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsJeremy Arocho (age 23) · Gabriel Maciel (age 23) · Drew Swift (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .277 / .269
PA210
HR2
SB8
K%33
BB%11
ISO80
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202218 ROKDSL Mariners — 134106 26440 23242 21 245389358748 113310 1817 339 41 — — — — — —
202319 ROKDSL Mariners — 226194 57762 27273 116 294388423811 129329 1212 362 45 — — — — — —
202420 ROKACL Mariners — 193150 41625 42380 81 273432440872 167333 2022 394 84 — — — — — —
202521 AModesto Nuts — 440366 1012113 65961 417 276386363749 87362 2215 340 76 — — — — — —
202521 INTLLeones del Escogido — 1818 4100 060 20 222222278500 56333 330 222 37 — — — — — —
202622 AInland Empire 66ers — 460381 941737 701210 3511 247361362723 115339 2615 328 60 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202218 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 134114 18320 15302 21 158267219486 61204 2211 229 41 — — — — — —
202319 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 226202 38431 19323 116 188268252520 64213 148 235 45 — — — — — —
202420 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 193166 33414 26560 81 199307307615 108277 2913 292 84 — — — — — —
202521 A MLEModesto Nuts — 440386 901613 461251 417 233316303620 70325 2810 280 76 — — — — — —
202622 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 460406 811435 481650 3511 200284286570 86307 3610 257 60 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 134114 18320 15302 21 158267219486 61209 2211 229 41 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 134106 26440 23242 21 245389358748 113310 1817 339 41 — — — — — —
202319 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 226202 38431 19323 116 188268252520 64216 148 235 45 — — — — — —
202319 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 226194 57762 27273 116 294388423811 129329 1212 362 45 — — — — — —
202420 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 193166 33414 26560 81 199307307615 108271 2913 292 84 — — — — — —
202420 ROK RAWACL Mariners — 193150 41625 42380 81 273432440872 167333 2022 394 84 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE2 teams — 458402 941713 481301 437 234317303621 70333 2810 280 76 — — — — — —
202521 A RAW2 teams — 458384 1052213 651021 437 273379359739 86360 2214 336 76 — — — — — —
202622 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 460406 811435 481650 3511 200284286570 86317 3610 257 60 — — — — — —
202622 A RAWInland Empire 66ers — 460381 941737 701210 3511 247361362723 115339 2615 328 60 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 134116 18320 15302 21 155267216483 60204 2211 229 41 — — — — — —
202319 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 226202 38431 19323 116 188268252520 64213 148 235 45 — — — — — —
202420 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 193165 33414 26560 81 200307309616 109277 2913 292 84 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE2 teams — 458406 941713 481301 437 232317300618 69325 2810 280 76 — — — — — —
202622 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 460409 811435 481650 3511 198284284568 86307 3610 257 60 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 193165 33414 26560 81 200307309616 109277 2913 292 84 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE2 teams — 458406 941713 481301 437 232317300618 69325 2810 280 76 — — — — — —
202622 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 460409 811435 481650 3511 198284284568 86307 3610 257 60 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLESEA 0% 570503 961726 611881 215 191279272551 80287 3311 256 59 -28 +2 +0 +6 +12 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLESEA 30% 417369 731326 441341 154 197285290574 92288 3211 265 65 -17 +1 +0 +4 +9 -0.2
202925 MLB MLESEA 44% 465412 841528 491471 164 201288301590 100289 3211 270 69 -17 +2 +0 +5 +10 -0.0
203026 MLB MLESEA 51% 490435 891629 511531 164 204290309599 105289 3110 274 72 -17 +2 +0 +5 +11 0.1
203127 MLB MLESEA 52% 498442 901629 521541 154 205291311602 106289 3110 275 72 -16 +1 +0 +5 +11 0.1
203228 MLB MLESEA 53% 496441 901629 511521 133 205290312602 107288 3110 275 72 -16 +1 -1 +5 +11 0.0
203329 MLB MLESEA 57% 487433 881628 501511 113 203288306594 103287 3110 272 70 -17 +1 -1 +5 +11 -0.2
203430 MLB MLESEA 60% 476423 851528 491491 93 200284299583 98285 3110 267 67 -19 +1 -2 +5 +10 -0.5
202824 MLB CTXSEA 30% 125111 22402 13400 41 196283286569 90286 3210 262 65 -5 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.1
202925 MLB CTXSEA 44% 205181 36613 22650 72 199287297584 98287 3211 268 69 -8 +1 +0 +2 +4 -0.0
203026 MLB CTXSEA 51% 248219 44814 26771 82 202289305593 103287 3110 272 72 -8 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.0
203127 MLB CTXSEA 52% 261231 47815 27811 82 203289307596 104286 3110 273 72 -9 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.1
203228 MLB CTXSEA 53% 264234 47815 27811 72 203289308596 104286 3110 273 72 -9 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.0
203329 MLB CTXSEA 57% 278246 50915 29861 62 201286302588 101284 3110 269 70 -10 +0 -1 +3 +6 -0.1
203430 MLB CTXSEA 60% 283251 50914 29881 52 198283295577 96283 3110 265 67 -11 +0 -1 +3 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 16641473 29652628 1735185 4513 201287301589 100287 3110 269 68 -59 +4 -2 +18 +36 -0.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 11520211 682022 185 200287299586 99285 3110 269 68 -23 +1 -1 +7 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 50104431 8981552572 524152213 20253 203289298587 95288 3010 268 68 -130 +10 -4 +38 +77 -1.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 1162039 681972 267 202289294583 92287 3010 268 68 -24 +2 -1 +7 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 460 PAwOBA .323 → .257 (−66)K% 26.3% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.30%÷1.000×1.360——35.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.22%÷1.000×0.690——10.50%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP25.77%÷1.000×0.920×1.010—23.95%
Doubles /BIP6.54%÷1.000×0.830×1.010—5.48%
Triples /BIP1.15%÷1.000×0.910×1.010—1.06%
Home runs /BIP2.69%÷1.000×0.800——2.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .323 → .257; ISO .115 → .091; BABIP .339 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 440 PAwOBA .335 → .280 (−55)K% 21.8% → 28.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.82%÷1.045×1.360——28.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.77%÷0.988×0.690—×1.01510.47%
HBP% /PA0.23%—×0.780—×1.0150.18%
Singles /BIP28.15%÷0.989×0.920×0.988×1.01526.23%
Doubles /BIP7.78%÷1.067×0.830×0.988×1.0156.06%
Triples /BIP0.37%÷1.097×0.910×0.988×1.0150.31%
Home runs /BIP1.11%÷0.759×0.800—×1.0151.19%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .335 → .280; ISO .087 → .075; BABIP .362 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Mariners · 193 PAwOBA .385 → .292 (−93)K% 19.7% → 28.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.69%÷0.981×1.440——28.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.24%÷0.966×0.620—×0.99513.57%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.962×0.820×1.021×0.99521.66%
Doubles /BIP5.36%÷0.970×0.720×1.021×0.9954.04%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷1.150×0.720×1.021×0.9951.14%
Home runs /BIP4.46%÷0.863×0.780—×0.9954.01%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .385 → .292; ISO .167 → .136; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Mariners · 226 PAwOBA .357 → .235 (−121)K% 11.9% → 14.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.95%÷1.020×1.220——14.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.95%÷1.005×0.700—×0.9958.28%
HBP% /PA1.33%—×0.700—×0.9950.92%
Singles /BIP25.15%÷0.978×0.680×0.986×0.99517.16%
Doubles /BIP4.19%÷1.092×0.600×0.986×0.9952.26%
Triples /BIP3.59%÷1.049×0.600×0.986×0.9952.02%
Home runs /BIP1.20%÷1.034×0.470—×0.9950.54%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 110, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .357 → .235; ISO .129 → .071; BABIP .329 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Mariners · 134 PAwOBA .336 → .229 (−108)K% 17.9% → 22.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.91%÷0.977×1.220——22.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.16%÷1.055×0.700—×1.00811.47%
HBP% /PA1.49%—×0.700—×1.0081.05%
Singles /BIP21.95%÷0.991×0.680×0.994×1.00815.09%
Doubles /BIP4.88%÷0.953×0.600×0.994×1.0083.07%
Triples /BIP4.88%÷1.105×0.600×0.994×1.0082.65%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.015×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 121, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .336 → .229; ISO .113 → .069; BABIP .310 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .