Dervy Ventura — OGILVIE

Dervy VenturaSS Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 165 lbs A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION325 act + 216 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .280 / .289

PA216

HR3

SB12

K%33

BB%10

BABIP301

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$13M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	134	116	20	3	2	0	13	36	2	2	1	172	267	233	500	60	244	27	10	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	134	106	26	4	4	0	23	24	2	2	1	245	389	358	748	113	310	18	17	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	226	205	45	4	4	1	16	37	3	11	6	220	286	293	578	73	260	16	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	226	194	57	7	6	2	27	27	3	11	6	294	388	423	811	129	329	12	12	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	193	165	36	5	1	5	27	57	0	8	1	218	328	352	680	133	298	30	14	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	193	150	41	6	2	5	42	38	0	8	1	273	432	440	872	167	333	20	22	394	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	458	401	97	16	1	6	49	123	1	43	7	242	326	332	658	90	330	27	11	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	458	384	105	22	1	3	65	102	1	43	7	273	379	359	739	86	360	22	14	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	SEA	—	325	293	58	9	1	5	28	119	0	26	9	198	268	287	555	89	310	37	9	254	53	-17	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
YTD	22	A	SEA	—	325	278	70	12	2	6	40	89	0	26	9	252	343	374	717	122	346	27	12	321	104	+1	+2	+0	+3	+9	1.6
ROS	22	A	SEA	0%	216	193	39	6	1	3	21	72	0	12	4	201	280	289	569	88	296	33	10	262	59	-10	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	SEA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		294	—	—	259	56	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	A	SEA	—	325	294	58	9	1	5	28	119	0	26	9	197	268	286	554	88	308	37	9	254	53	-17	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
TOT	22	A	SEA	—	541	486	97	15	2	8	49	191	0	38	13	199	273	288	560	88	306	35	9	257	55	-28	+2	+0	+6	+15	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SEA	34%	503	448	94	15	2	9	49	159	1	19	5	210	289	312	602	103	300	32	10	276	70	-17	+2	+0	+5	+14	0.4
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	539	480	103	17	2	11	52	166	2	19	5	215	294	327	621	113	300	31	10	284	75	-15	+2	+0	+6	+15	0.8
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	560	499	108	18	2	12	54	169	2	19	5	216	295	333	628	116	299	30	10	288	78	-14	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	571	508	111	19	2	13	56	171	2	18	5	219	299	341	639	122	299	30	10	290	80	-13	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.1
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	572	508	111	19	2	13	57	172	2	17	5	219	300	341	640	122	299	30	10	290	80	-13	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.1
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	569	505	110	18	2	13	57	172	2	16	5	218	300	339	638	121	299	30	10	289	79	-13	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.0
2033	29	MLB	SEA	53%	560	497	107	18	2	12	56	170	2	15	4	215	297	332	629	117	298	30	10	287	78	-14	+1	-1	+6	+16	0.8
2027	23	MLB	SEA	34%	173	154	32	5	1	3	17	55	0	6	2	208	287	312	598	104	297	32	10	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	249	222	48	8	1	5	24	76	1	9	2	216	296	329	624	113	297	31	10	279	71	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	289	258	55	9	1	6	28	87	1	10	3	213	293	326	618	112	297	30	10	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	310	276	60	10	1	7	30	93	1	10	3	217	296	337	633	120	297	30	10	284	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	310	275	60	10	1	7	31	93	1	9	3	218	300	338	638	120	297	30	10	284	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	309	274	59	10	1	7	31	93	1	9	3	215	297	336	633	120	296	30	10	283	75	-9	+1	-0	+3	+9	0.4
2033	29	MLB	SEA	53%	297	264	56	9	1	6	30	90	1	8	2	212	295	322	617	110	296	30	10	282	74	-9	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1937	1724	370	61	7	41	191	587	6	61	18	215	295	329	625	115	297	30	10	282	74	-57	+5	-1	+21	+55	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	124	20	2	14	64	197	2	20	6	214	295	328	623	114	296	30	10	282	74	-19	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	5101	4525	981	158	23	98	507	1504	19	199	53	217	298	327	625	110	299	29	10	284	76	-141	+19	-2	+55	+145	7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	124	20	3	12	65	192	2	25	7	215	297	322	619	107	297	30	10	284	76	-18	+2	-0	+7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	134	106	26	4	4	0	23	24	2	2	1	245	389	358	748	113	310	18	17	339	117	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	226	194	57	7	6	2	27	27	3	11	6	294	388	423	811	129	329	12	12	362	135	+9	-0	—	—	+6	1.6
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	193	150	41	6	2	5	42	38	0	8	1	273	432	440	872	167	333	20	22	394	159	+13	+1	—	—	+5	2.0
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	440	366	101	21	1	3	65	96	1	41	7	276	386	363	749	87	362	22	15	340	119	+9	+5	—	—	+12	2.8
2025	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	18	18	4	1	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	222	222	278	500	56	333	33	0	222	28	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,257	47	72	216	294	332	+24	+12	3.3	3.2
	/162	664	14	21	216	294	332	+7.1	+3.5	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dervy Ventura (OGILVIE)	22	45	25	60	60	199/273/288	88	306	8	38	35%	9%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2022 · A	23	53→46	35→30	57→60	50	242/317/300	58	340	3	24	27%	10%	77	+0.1	215/321/272	57	293	2	30	24%	13%	73	-0.1	203/318/251	48	272	1	35	22%	14%	64	-0.5
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→38	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	63	-0.9	207/276/283	76	320	2	18	33%	8%	55	-1.4	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	46→50	41→40	56→60	46	222/287/330	108	287	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	217/282/308	91	288	7	26	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/276/294	89	271	8	32	26%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Luis Valdez 2022 · A	22	50→56	38→40	58→70	42	230/294/313	84	333	5	26	31%	7%	71	-0.3	218/270/283	65	334	3	44	33%	6%	52	-1.6	210/262/266	56	324	2	56	34%	6%	41	-1.3
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→42	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.0	207/277/276	69	268	2	17	21%	8%	54	-1.4	197/272/260	63	253	1	17	20%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	38→40	53→60	49	182/289/262	80	287	6	16	35%	11%	58	-1.2	202/293/281	79	297	5	23	30%	10%	63	-0.8	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Roman Quinn 2015 · A	22	47→53	42→45	55→65	44	228/295/328	100	309	10	28	28%	7%	76	+0.0	243/297/340	97	331	7	35	27%	6%	78	+0.2	244/301/381	137	331	12	48	28%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Noah Campbell 2022 · A	23	46→45	39→45	53→50	46	215/296/301	86	315	7	14	31%	9%	69	-0.4	215/295/318	103	336	8	11	35%	9%	73	-0.1	209/298/318	109	342	7	8	37%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Wilmer Difo 2014 · A	22	43→53	39→45	53→55	49	207/273/291	84	260	6	18	22%	8%	56	-1.3	246/284/355	109	296	9	24	19%	4%	76	+0.1	251/289/354	103	300	8	28	19%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Victor Scott II 2023 · A	22	44→53	44→40	58→65	50	212/296/342	129	289	10	19	28%	10%	79	+0.3	222/282/318	96	284	8	44	23%	6%	66	-0.6	217/280/304	88	276	7	49	23%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	54	219/305/291	72	275	2	31	20%	10%	70	-0.3	206/278/275	69	280	3	16	25%	8%	54	-1.4	170/237/218	48	234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2023 · A	22	47	42→45	57→55	50	224/306/337	113	303	7	21	27%	10%	82	+0.5	210/274/324	114	288	10	18	29%	8%	65	-0.7	193/262/293	100	274	11	19	32%	8%	49	-1.2
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	22	44→46	37→40	53→50	50	207/288/290	84	284	3	13	26%	10%	63	-0.9	197/253/270	73	267	3	8	26%	7%	42	-2.3	210/295/360	150	264	16	2	26%	10%	80	+0.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	44	209/274/306	96	292	6	21	29%	8%	60	-1.0	250/307/354	104	326	7	26	24%	7%	86	+0.8	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Peyton Wilson 2022 · A	22	43→49	41→45	53→55	41	204/279/311	107	305	7	14	33%	7%	65	-0.7	217/281/341	124	293	12	18	29%	7%	73	-0.1	210/277/337	127	275	13	19	28%	7%	67	-0.5
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	35→30	54→60	52	209/291/266	57	279	3	25	24%	10%	58	-1.2	222/308/290	68	293	2	20	22%	10%	71	-0.3	235/336/301	66	302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	46	39→45	56→55	44	218/272/306	88	294	5	24	27%	7%	59	-1.1	219/277/324	105	287	8	20	25%	7%	66	-0.6	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2