Drew Swift
SS Las Vegas Aviators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | INTLMesa Solar Sox | 32 | .172/.250/.207 | 0 | 1 | 34 | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AAOAK | 460 | .248/.333/.315 | 2 | 20 | 49 | — | .216/.277/.266 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAAOAK | 482 | .260/.391/.326 | 2 | 20 | 78 | — | .234/.331/.285 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBOAK | 16 | .212/.296/.269 | 0 | 1 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBOAK | 58 | .212/.294/.271 | 0 | 2 | 60 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 118 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 34 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 174 | 339 | 261 | 600 | 87 | 259 | 29 | 18 | 285 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 256 | 221 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 61 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 253 | 353 | 312 | 665 | 59 | 344 | 24 | 12 | 310 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 261 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 73 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 253 | 323 | 322 | 645 | 69 | 351 | 25 | 9 | 292 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 27 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 333 | 304 | 638 | 87 | 357 | 33 | 15 | 299 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 24 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 500 | 333 | 833 | 133 | 250 | 12 | 29 | 409 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 32 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 207 | 457 | 34 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 169 | 151 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 318 | 383 | 417 | 800 | 99 | 442 | 27 | 9 | 357 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 291 | 249 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 71 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 205 | 303 | 253 | 556 | 48 | 283 | 24 | 11 | 258 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 393 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 79 | 120 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 260 | 391 | 326 | 717 | 66 | 366 | 25 | 16 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 118 | 97 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 144 | 278 | 216 | 495 | 72 | 235 | 39 | 14 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 256 | 230 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 226 | 302 | 278 | 580 | 52 | 323 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 292 | 269 | 60 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 56 | 328 | 31 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 27 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 125 | 222 | 167 | 389 | 42 | 317 | 44 | 11 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 24 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 375 | 278 | 653 | 111 | 176 | 17 | 17 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 169 | 155 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 284 | 335 | 355 | 690 | 71 | 411 | 31 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 291 | 261 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 176 | 243 | 215 | 458 | 38 | 251 | 30 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 418 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 144 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 234 | 331 | 285 | 615 | 50 | 348 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 118 | 97 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 144 | 278 | 216 | 495 | 72 | 255 | 39 | 14 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 118 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 34 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 174 | 339 | 261 | 600 | 87 | 259 | 29 | 18 | 285 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 256 | 230 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 226 | 302 | 278 | 580 | 52 | 333 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 256 | 221 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 61 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 253 | 353 | 312 | 665 | 59 | 344 | 24 | 12 | 310 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 311 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 212 | 277 | 270 | 547 | 58 | 324 | 31 | 7 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 343 | 299 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 85 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 336 | 321 | 657 | 74 | 346 | 25 | 11 | 301 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL MLE | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 32 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 207 | 457 | 34 | 263 | 31 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL RAW | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 32 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 207 | 457 | 34 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 416 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 216 | 277 | 267 | 544 | 50 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 400 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 116 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 247 | 333 | 315 | 648 | 68 | 342 | 25 | 11 | 294 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 418 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 144 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 234 | 331 | 285 | 615 | 50 | 353 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 393 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 79 | 120 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 260 | 391 | 326 | 717 | 66 | 366 | 25 | 16 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 118 | 99 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 141 | 278 | 212 | 490 | 71 | 235 | 39 | 14 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 256 | 229 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 227 | 302 | 279 | 581 | 52 | 323 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 312 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 212 | 277 | 269 | 547 | 58 | 316 | 31 | 7 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 422 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 213 | 277 | 263 | 540 | 50 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 419 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 144 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 234 | 331 | 284 | 615 | 50 | 348 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 422 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 213 | 277 | 263 | 540 | 50 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 482 | 419 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 144 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 234 | 331 | 284 | 615 | 50 | 348 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 10% | 380 | 337 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 110 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 206 | 290 | 259 | 549 | 53 | 297 | 29 | 10 | 257 | 60 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 10% | 16 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 296 | 269 | 565 | 58 | 306 | 31 | 12 | 263 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 27% | 212 | 188 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 61 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 206 | 289 | 261 | 550 | 55 | 296 | 29 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 27% | 58 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 294 | 271 | 565 | 59 | 305 | 29 | 10 | 263 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 293 | 235 | 528 | 39 | 294 | 29 | 10 | 263 | 56 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 572 | 112 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 191 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 196 | 292 | 234 | 527 | 38 | 294 | 29 | 10 | 263 | 56 | -31 | +4 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2058 | 1827 | 393 | 66 | 8 | 6 | 187 | 630 | 20 | 94 | 17 | 215 | 295 | 270 | 565 | 55 | 323 | 31 | 9 | 252 | 56 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 59 | 199 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 217 | 296 | 274 | 570 | 57 | 325 | 31 | 9 | 252 | 56 | -31 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 482 PAwOBA .329 → .284 (−45)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 28.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .329 → .284; ISO .066 → .056; BABIP .366 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 291 PAwOBA .254 → .206 (−48)K% 24.4% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 21.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .254 → .206; ISO .048 → .038; BABIP .283 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 169 PAwOBA .348 → .300 (−48)K% 26.6% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.63% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.47% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.91% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 32.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 7.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .348 → .300; ISO .099 → .077; BABIP .442 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 292 PAwOBA .285 → .243 (−42)K% 25.0% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 26.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.011 | ×0.840 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .285 → .243; ISO .069 → .058; BABIP .351 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 27 PAwOBA .292 → .214 (−78)K% 33.3% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 45.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 19.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 12.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .292 → .214; ISO .087 → .064; BABIP .357 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 24 PAwOBA .402 → .274 (−128)K% 12.5% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 16.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 5.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 6.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 10.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .402 → .274; ISO .133 → .104; BABIP .250 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 256 PAwOBA .304 → .257 (−47)K% 23.8% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.83% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.72% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.75% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 27.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .304 → .257; ISO .059 → .049; BABIP .344 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 118 PAwOBA .282 → .227 (−55)K% 28.8% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.81% | ÷0.998 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.80% | ÷0.938 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 13.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 16.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 6.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .282 → .227; ISO .087 → .067; BABIP .259 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .