Eliezer Lucena — OGILVIE

Eliezer Lucena P DSL Twins

+0.2 WAR

Age 18 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2032

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.6%

IP32

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2032

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	11	1	38	169	31	19	0	12.5%	14.1%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	MIN	32	—	32	135	30	13	4	22.3%	9.7%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	19	MLB	MIN	34	—	34	142	32	13	4	22.8%	9.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.27	+0.3
2028	20	MLB	MIN	35	—	35	149	35	13	4	23.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.17	+0.3
2029	21	MLB	MIN	37	—	37	157	37	14	4	23.7%	8.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.07	+0.4
2030	22	MLB	MIN	39	—	39	165	40	14	4	24.6%	8.2%	2.7%	4.01	3.92	+0.5
2031	23	MLB	MIN	40	—	40	171	43	14	4	25.3%	7.9%	2.6%	3.88	3.79	+0.5
2032	24	MLB	MIN	42	—	42	175	45	14	5	25.8%	7.7%	2.6%	3.77	3.70	+0.6
2033	25	MLB	MIN	42	—	42	177	46	13	5	26.2%	7.6%	2.6%	3.69	3.64	+0.6
2034	26	MLB	MIN	42	—	42	177	47	13	5	26.4%	7.5%	2.6%	3.65	3.62	+0.6
2035	27	MLB	MIN	42	—	42	176	46	13	5	26.4%	7.6%	2.6%	3.64	3.63	+0.6
2036	28	MLB	MIN	41	—	41	174	46	13	5	26.4%	7.6%	2.6%	3.65	3.66	+0.6
2037	29	MLB	MIN	40	—	40	170	45	13	5	26.2%	7.7%	2.7%	3.68	3.70	+0.6
2038	30	MLB	MIN	39	—	39	165	43	13	4	26.0%	7.8%	2.7%	3.73	3.77	+0.5
2039	31	MLB	MIN	38	—	38	159	41	13	4	25.8%	7.9%	2.8%	3.80	3.84	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			11	1	38	169	21	24	0	12.5%	14.1%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			58	5	200	897	112	127	0	12.5%	14.1%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliezer Lucena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	22.3%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.17	23.3%	14.3%	106	-0.23	—	—	—
Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	19	SU	3.49	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.43	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.49	115	90
Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.60	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.14	4.15	179	90
Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	19	SU	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.93	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.47	3.32	206	88
Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	18	SU	4.04	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.41	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.37	4.04	104	87
Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	18	SU	3.88	23.0%	12.9%	2.0%	.316	4.21	21.5%	3.8%	148	+0.33	3.31	182	86
Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.94	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.06	3.11	213	86
Andry Lara R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	18	SU	4.94	19.1%	9.7%	4.0%	.294	4.76	16.6%	6.7%	334	-0.18	4.56	425	86
Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	19	SU	3.74	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.02	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.28	3.74	273	85
Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	18	SU	3.96	18.3%	6.9%	2.8%	.256	3.89	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.07	3.74	187	85
Dahian Santos R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.52	197	85
Matt Walker R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	20	SU	3.21	24.8%	10.3%	1.7%	.326	3.75	19.1%	9.8%	178	+0.54	2.42	211	85
Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	18	SU	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	84
Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	18	SU	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	3.67	23.4%	12.4%	127	-0.38	3.29	189	84
Christian Romero R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	18	SU	3.25	18.8%	8.6%	1.2%	.280	4.95	16.3%	7.8%	198	+1.70	3.25	347	84
Angel Guillen R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	18	SU	3.92	20.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.411	3.44	15.7%	8.6%	78	-0.48	3.37	181	84
Robinson Hernandez R 2028 · 3.38 FIP	20	SU	3.38	19.6%	9.0%	1.4%	.328	4.37	17.5%	7.0%	102	+0.99	2.62	166	83
Nelfy Ynfante R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	18	SU	4.30	18.1%	10.7%	2.5%	.309	4.38	16.3%	4.6%	155	+0.08	3.71	227	83
Eccel Correa R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	83
Sandy Lugo R 2029 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	83
Danny Dopico R 2029 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$8M